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 07-27-2008, 05:26 AM #1 coatsie journeyman   Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: defending blinds with vigour Posts: 232 does 4:1 odds mean you have 25% or 20% chance to win?? also whats your formula to work out your percentage to win with 3/2 odds etc. i know its a noob question buy hey, im a noob to maths cheers
07-27-2008, 05:51 AM   #2
BruceZ
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 11,877
Re: does 4:1 odds mean you have 25% or 20% chance to win??

4:1 against = 1/(4+1) = 20%.

This is 1 win for every 4 losses, or 1 win for every 4+1 = 5 plays.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by coatsie also whats your formula to work out your percentage to win with 3/2 odds etc.
3:2 against = 2/(3+2) = 40%. (2 wins for every 3+2 = 5 plays).

3:2 in favor = 3/(3+2) = 60%. (3 wins for every 3+2 = 5 plays).

Last edited by BruceZ; 07-27-2008 at 05:56 AM.

 07-27-2008, 11:20 AM #3 AaronBrown Pooh-Bah     Join Date: May 2005 Location: New York Posts: 4,240 Re: does 4:1 odds mean you have 25% or 20% chance to win?? There are two confusing things here. Probability is usually stated as the number of equally likely ways something can happen versus the total number of ways. So I say you have 5 chances in 36 of rolling an 8 with two dice, because there are 5 ways to make an 8 (62, 53, 44, 35 and 26) out of 36 possible rolls. Payouts are usually stated as the amount you win versus the amount you put up, so 4 to 1 means one side puts up \$1 and the other side puts up \$4. In this case, fair odds for rolling an 8 is 31:5 (which in turn is conventionally reduced to 6.2:1 because people don't like numbers higher than 20 unless the other side is 1). However, sometimes payouts are stated as 4 for 1, meaning you pay \$1 which you don't get back, and either win \$4 or nothing. If the odds are 4 to 1 (also written 4:1), then you need a 20% probability of winning, 1 / (4 + 1), to make it a fair bet. If the wager is stated as 4 for 1, you need a 25% chance, 1 / 4, to make it fair. Gamblers tend to think in terms of symmetrical bets, so 4 to 1. Casinos and mathematicians, for different reasons, tend to think in terms of one side paying money for the possible delivery of a payout. So make sure you know if you're talking about payouts or probabilities and whether the ratio is stated as "to" or "for".

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