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Do you believe luck exists in poker? Do you believe luck exists in poker?

02-08-2024 , 04:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatmanonguitar
It’s amazing that people that play the game of poker have such a poor grasp of statistics and probability. If you want to define luck as short deviation from the mean, sure you can observe people get “lucky” and “unlucky”. But that’s all this is. It is variance and completely conceivable within the sample size. The OP seems to be asking whether people believe in some inherent power, where an individual is simply blessed to be on the better side of variance than some other individual.


Not to mention, a downswing can also be the result of poor decision-making, and not just getting sucked out on or running into coolers
Well my down swing obviously has very little to do with decision making, I’m suppose to be up 30buyins but instead down 30.

Obviously I understand luck, it’s a simple concept.

There is a huge amount of luck in poker suggesting otherwise would be ridiculous.

In regards to there being an inherent power that would have to suggest we’re living in a simulation, all playing characters, possible not probable.

Naturally some individuals will live on the right side of variance and unfortunately for others the wrong side.
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-08-2024 , 06:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe-exotic69
You make nittier folds vs someone who you perceive to be lucky or because you perceive yourself as unlucky?
I've never thought of myself as being inherently lucky or unlucky as a stable condition. I see myself as sometimes temporarily getting lucky (running good), or unlucky (running bad).

Playing vs someone widely perceived as a luck-box, I think it can be correct to make tighter folds, for logical reasons which don't require believing in luck.

If a player has enjoyed better than average card distribution, as opposed to being card dead, he will probably end up bluffing less on average, because his personal experience is that he gets good enough cards often enough that he doesn't need to find as many bluffs.

If everyone tells him he's lucky, he might start believing it, and expect to get good cards often enough that he doesn't think he needs to find as many bluffs.

So, against a guy everyone sees as being "lucky", I'm more likely to make tighter folds and bluff-catch less, because he's probably experienced good card distribution to earn that reputation, and he might actually think of himself as lucky, and thus less likely to be bluffing.

None of the above requires believing in luck, nor actually quantifying my opponent's card distribution as being better than average. It's just psychology and probability.

What this discussion has made me realize is that very few people will play enough to get their individualized long-term distribution to revert to the expected mean. Instead, half of all players experience better than average distribution, even if it's only slightly better, while the other half experience worse than average, with a small number of extreme outliers who experience dramatically better or dramatically worse.

I'm not superstitious, but I've labored under a mistaken expectation that the cards break even for everyone eventually. I no longer expect they will, and thus, some folks will be "lucky" enough to get better than average distribution.
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-08-2024 , 11:51 PM
Quote:
cards break even for everyone eventually
Yeah, that's not how normal distribution works. There will always be some outliers, unless you play to infinity.
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-09-2024 , 09:38 PM
Luck is when a whale walks in at 2pm and I happen to be in the room.
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-10-2024 , 03:42 PM
You are dealt pocket aces on two consecutive hands. This happened because

A. You ARE a lucky person
B. You WERE lucky

I choose B.

Luck is the occurrence of an event that is at the tail of a distribution. On the far right tail of a profit distribution you are running really good; on the far left you are running really bad. If there were no tails (called a censored distribution), there would not be good or bad luck. Conversely, if no one was “lucky” there would be no tails

Simply stated (as many others have indicated), we use the term luck to describe variance.
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-11-2024 , 01:56 PM
We use the term variance to describe luck.
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-11-2024 , 10:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by maromb78
This question has been tested and the answer is yes. There are those who are luck boxes. I can't remember where I read about it but someone used bots. They set up a 9 handed game and programmed each bot with the exact same profile. So each bot played exactly the same. They ran the simulation for one million hands and in the end there was a clear winner and a clear loser. The winning bot got lucky while the big loser got unlucky. The rest ended up a little or down a little. So that leads to the question, how to beat luck or at least how to not be the unlucky one. In the simulation each bot had the exact same playing style. This is why table selection is so key.

Its funny that I ran across this thread today. Last night I found myself at a table where there was no clear losing player. I was a tough table that I told myself there's no way to make money here unless someone goes on fire and gets better hands at a higher frequency than everyone else. I was mostly card dead the whole night and knew I needed to change tables. Not because I was getting dealt cold cards but because I knew that I would have to get lucky to make any money. Unfortunately I didn't change tables and at the end of an 8 hour session I was a loser. Driving home I was kicking myself for not changing tables.
What you are positing is a fully deterministic view of the universe which was the normal approach at studying reality in the 19th century and at the beginning of the 20th century.

Einstein used to believe that as well claiming at some point, they say, "god doesn't play dice" (=randomness has no role in the universe).

That was when our understanding of the nature of reality was approaching quants (the elements making up an electron or a proton, sub-sub atomic "particles") but we didn't know enough yet about them.

We now know they exist and behave stochastically (based on probability distribution).

We know the smallest components of the universe we are for now capable of observing are all based on probability, so bye bye determinism
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-14-2024 , 09:13 PM
Of course there is luck. 50% of all players run above average and 50% of all players run below average. You will never reach a long enough time horizon to see this bell curve revert to the mean or whatever, so in any human sample the outliers persist. The good thing is you will never know where you are in that distribution, or anyone else for that matter, so you can just ignore it like it doesn't exist at all and play the game instead. Poker isn't an ATM. If you knew you were on a 2 year bad stretch, would you still play? If the answer is no, you're not playing poker but some wishful thinking game that doesn't really exist anywhere but in your head.
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-14-2024 , 09:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luciom
What you are positing is a fully deterministic view of the universe which was the normal approach at studying reality in the 19th century and at the beginning of the 20th century.

Einstein used to believe that as well claiming at some point, they say, "god doesn't play dice" (=randomness has no role in the universe).

That was when our understanding of the nature of reality was approaching quants (the elements making up an electron or a proton, sub-sub atomic "particles") but we didn't know enough yet about them.

We now know they exist and behave stochastically (based on probability distribution).

We know the smallest components of the universe we are for now capable of observing are all based on probability, so bye bye determinism
Ya but probability is deterministic too, isn't it?
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-15-2024 , 07:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatmanonguitar
There is no such thing as luck in poker. There is perceived luck based on variance, bias, and emotion.
Huh? Luck determines everything in poker other than the decisions made, and even there it's influenced by luck. The only way to deny there is luck in poker is to redefine the definition of luck. It's a serious cognitive bias to say there is no luck in poker just because there is probability involved (if that's your reasoning). Making a good hand in poker is still lucky even if there's some chance that it happens, to say it's not luck is entering a world where words don't matter anymore.

Last edited by walkby; 02-15-2024 at 07:36 AM.
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-15-2024 , 12:04 PM
Yes. Shorts term/one session it is very important which seat you get😁
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-19-2024 , 10:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by walkby
Huh? Luck determines everything in poker other than the decisions made, and even there it's influenced by luck. The only way to deny there is luck in poker is to redefine the definition of luck. It's a serious cognitive bias to say there is no luck in poker just because there is probability involved (if that's your reasoning). Making a good hand in poker is still lucky even if there's some chance that it happens, to say it's not luck is entering a world where words don't matter anymore.
So if I call heads in a coin flip and it comes heads twice in a row, is that “lucky”? Am I a lucky person?

The OP is literally asking if certain people are inherently luckier than others. Like if a lucky person takes a seat he/she is more likely than the average person to get certain cards. This is nonsense.

You can call making good poker hands lucky. You can call hitting your outs lucky. You can call sucking out lucky. It’s all just variance.
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-19-2024 , 11:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatmanonguitar
So if I call heads in a coin flip and it comes heads twice in a row, is that “lucky”? Am I a lucky person?

The OP is literally asking if certain people are inherently luckier than others. Like if a lucky person takes a seat he/she is more likely than the average person to get certain cards. This is nonsense.

You can call making good poker hands lucky. You can call hitting your outs lucky. You can call sucking out lucky. It’s all just variance.
Would you disagree with a grandma playing poker for the first time and winning a $100 pot by hitting a straight if she told you she got lucky?
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-20-2024 , 11:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatmanonguitar
So if I call heads in a coin flip and it comes heads twice in a row, is that “lucky”? Am I a lucky person?

The OP is literally asking if certain people are inherently luckier than others. Like if a lucky person takes a seat he/she is more likely than the average person to get certain cards. This is nonsense.

You can call making good poker hands lucky. You can call hitting your outs lucky. You can call sucking out lucky. It’s all just variance.
Yesterday my local casino had a $750 high hand promo. A guy at my table hits the promo with a Q high straight flush. I joke with him how I haven't had a straight flush in 3 years. He tells me he has had 10 Royal Flushes in probably 5/6 years of playing. Also said he hit a 40k BBJ 2 years ago. Claims he plays 2-3 days a week.
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-20-2024 , 01:28 PM
These anecdotes are not helping anyone’s cause in proving they understand probability.

Luck is defined as:

1) success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions

2) chance considered as a force that causes good or bad things to happen



1 = variance
2 does not exist
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-20-2024 , 01:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatmanonguitar
These anecdotes are not helping anyone’s cause in proving they understand probability.

Luck is defined as:

1) success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions

2) chance considered as a force that causes good or bad things to happen



1 = variance
2 does not exist
Ok... man who has never played poker before plays a freeroll satellite on a site and freerolls into a 10K tournament and then wins it crushing everyone because of how good he ran. This is an extreme example but things like this might have happened to a lesser degree... it seems to suggest that luck exists in poker.
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-20-2024 , 01:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by walkby
Ok... man who has never played poker before plays a freeroll satellite on a site and freerolls into a 10K tournament and then wins it crushing everyone because of how good he ran. This is an extreme example but things like this might have happened to a lesser degree... it seems to suggest that luck exists in poker.
Are you trolling?
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-20-2024 , 01:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fatmanonguitar
Are you trolling?
"I won 14 freerolls in a row to get here, I'm not losing this thing now" says man at the main event final table. "You're one lucky dog" "No, it's just probability working it's way out."
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-20-2024 , 02:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by walkby
Ok... man who has never played poker before plays a freeroll satellite on a site and freerolls into a 10K tournament and then wins it crushing everyone because of how good he ran. This is an extreme example but things like this might have happened to a lesser degree... it seems to suggest that luck exists in poker.
Chris Moneymaker
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-20-2024 , 02:08 PM
Ok you guys have convinced me.
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote
02-20-2024 , 05:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by maromb78
Yesterday my local casino had a $750 high hand promo. A guy at my table hits the promo with a Q high straight flush. I joke with him how I haven't had a straight flush in 3 years. He tells me he has had 10 Royal Flushes in probably 5/6 years of playing. Also said he hit a 40k BBJ 2 years ago. Claims he plays 2-3 days a week.
Lucky is a description of the past, not a state of being.
Do you believe luck exists in poker? Quote

      
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