Quote:
Originally Posted by statmanhal
There are several questionable statements in the OP. Isn’t the number of villain outs 20 if hero stands pat? One or both V can pair to beat your 22 but why would you not discard at least the T to possibly get two pair or a set unless standing pat has other good features (e.g., representing a straight or better - I don’t play this game)?
With 20 outs each villain’s equity is 54%. Your equity is then Pr(both miss) which is approximately 0.46^2 = 21% (actually 0.46*(1-20/36)=0.204).Total equity is 2*0.54 -.54^2 + 0.21 = 1.0. Using 16 outs, the probabilities will also sum to 1.0 when you correctly sum. As Rusty noted, only one villain wins when both hit unless they draw the same rank out and then they split the pot.
If both VILLAINS are chasing str8 or better by discarding 1 card they both have 8 outs for str8 and 8 outs for a better pair then 22. I don't play 5 card draw either but I have played a lot of chigaco with two discard and one of my tactics is to pat pair of 22 and holding TKA and play for one point after first discard then I throw away 22 and aim for the Chicago play offs. I have won a lot of time 1 point for having a pair when both my opponents has worse than pair of 2.
Also I watched a Jason Statham movie called "Revolver" and got inspired I quote
"Best way to win in chess is to sacrifice your own pieces so that your opponent thinks you are dumb and he is smart", the reason why this hand popped into my head a couple of days later.
Both of VILLAINS hitting a better hand (first VILLAIN draws a better hand and the last VILLAIN hits a better hand) is 43%X43% = something around 18% so it is not very much likely to happen and for the chance of that happening the first drawing villain must hit to complete 50% of that outcome.
But my question is how/why do I get 2,3:1 patting a pair of 2? I should have less. By playing ABC-tags I could also bet 1/5 of the pot after the discard and win vs half their range that is better than mine making pair of 2 a 64% before the action began but that is not the point or discussion I want in this thread.
edit: Math has always been the worst class of mine during school so maybe I am blabbering but that 43% becomes less since there is another VILLAIN behind him drawing to same is a fact I understood but who is eating equity when first one misses?
If HERO wins the equity when first VILLAIN misses he gets more than doubled equity even when the other VILLAIN has same amount of outs. (It think)
Last edited by doylebrunson1337; 04-03-2017 at 03:04 PM.