Quote:
Originally Posted by Hackdeath
Was playing badminton with some friends and this situation came up. The shuttle cock was hit close to the line and we weren't sure if it was in or out.
Person A said he was 60% sure it was in. Person B also said they were 60% sure it was in. On the assumption that the confidence levels are independent of each other, how sure does person C have to be that the shuttle was hit out for there to be an overall 50% chance of the shuttle being in or out?
This isn't really a combination of probabilities, It's a combination of opinions about one probability. So the method of taking one minus the sum of the complements of the probabilities would not be correct.
I think the appropriate method here is called combining forecasts. Normally you would use some kind of weighted average, but with no other information about the participants a simple average is all you can do.
Last edited by NewOldGuy; 03-20-2018 at 03:24 PM.