Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 5,081
Disclaimer: I'm assuming Wikipedia's rules description for this game is correct.
Suppose you bet $1 and tie.
The EV of surrendering is -50 cents.
If you go to war, then 6/13 of the time you'll win $1, 1/13 of the time you'll win $2 and 6/13 of the time you'll lose $2. So the EV of going to war is $(6 + 2 - 12)/13 = -30.77 cents
Conclusion: the player should go to war.
House edge when player always goes to war = 4/169 ≈ 2.37%
House edge when player always surrenders = 1/26 ≈ 3.85%
