There hasn’t been a posting in this forum for over 6 days so to get the ball rolling (maybe), here’s one:
You hold K
T
on a board of K
4
8
T
, three hearts. You are almost certain villain has a flush when he goes all-in. You have 4 outs for a full house win (kings and tens) ignoring the extremely unlikely one-outer for a straight flush. What is your equity?
The 2x rule says 2*4 =8%, but we know that is a simple approximation. The “exact” answer is 4/R where R is the remaining unknown cards. So, what is R?
6 cards are precisely known, the two in your hand and the four on the board. That leaves, at most, 46 unknowns. But, we also stated that villain has a flush (almost certainly), so we can infer that villain doesn’t have a king or ten for if he did he could not have a flush. That confirms that our four outs are in the deck, but what does it tell us about R?
Should we reduce the 46 unknowns to 44?