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Bitcoin Dice Site Called Just-Dice.com Rigged or Not? Bitcoin Dice Site Called Just-Dice.com Rigged or Not?

01-27-2014 , 10:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by northeastbeast
There is a bounce rate of 75 percent for the site. The average visitor who stays on the site stays for 2 hours and 32 minutes.
Most visitors only visit the front page. It's impossible for alexa to work out how long they stayed for because there's never an end event of them visiting another page. So your stats are invalid.

Quote:
Originally Posted by northeastbeast
With the traffic given by stat-brain it came up with a result of 50,000 total unique and repeat visitors for the site over the entire time it has existed. If we multiply those stats by 250 you get 12.5 million visitors maximum having visiting the site. If each of those users stayed for 2 hours and 32 minutes on the site you multiply 152 minutes x 12.5 million visitors and you get 12 750 000 000 seconds. If you divide 532 million bets by 12,750,000,000 you have each user having to place a minimum of .04 bets per second for those numbers to be credible.
Do you have a computer near you? Maybe use it to do your calculations because pulling numbers out of your ass isn't working.

50e3 * 250 = 12.5e6, agreed.
12.5e6 * 152 * 60 != 1.275e10 though.
12.5e6 * 152 * 60 = 1.14e11. So you're a factor of around 10 off there.

And 532 bets in 1.14e11 seconds is 214 seconds per bet.

I don't know if you think that 0.04 bets per second sounds like a lot, but that's the same as 25 seconds per bet. That's not very fast at all.
Bitcoin Dice Site Called Just-Dice.com Rigged or Not? Quote
01-27-2014 , 11:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by northeastbeast
SatoshiDice reported its last public financial statement in June 2013, as it was still being traded on the Bitcoin-denominated stock-exchange MPEX before being sold to a private investor. In that June statement, it reported 372,712 bets placed over 30 days, which averages out to about 12,424 bets per day.

Just-Dice has done 2523809 bets per day or 203 TIMES MORE than Satoshi Dice. Satoshi Dice accounts for 25-50 percent of ALL bit-coin transactions according to that article.

So either Just-Dice.com is the biggest kept secret in the bitcoin world or the owner is not being honest about his website.
Or they are entirely different types of sites.

SatoshiDice is a site where every bet involves two Bitcoin transactions, whereas Just-Dice lets you deposit, make a million bets on a single page, all on-site, and then withdraw. Approximately 0 Bitcoin transactions per bet as opposed to 2 Bitcoin transactions per bet at SatoshiDice. Note also that over a certain (secret) bet size threshold SatoshiDice doesn't process a bet until it is confirmed on the Bitcoin blockchain. That takes an average of 10 minutes to happen, whereas Just-Dice doesn't impose such delays. We do wait for a single blockchain confirmation before crediting your deposit to your account, but after that you can place as many bets as you like without awaiting further confirmations.

Just-Dice has pretty much killed SatoshiDice's traffic from what I can see, on account of having around half the house edge, much bigger maximum bets, almost 100% uptime, responsive customer support, many more choices of odds and payouts and lots of other stuff I've no doubt forgotten. But this isn't a commercial for Just-Dice. Let's try to stay on topic shall we?
Bitcoin Dice Site Called Just-Dice.com Rigged or Not? Quote
01-28-2014 , 12:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by northeastbeast
Getting someone to deposit is more difficult than allowing them to bet from a pile of money they control. Satoshi dice is simply a way to bet on a site remotely without making a deposit. Multiple bets can be placed within a single transaction.
Note really. Just with SatoshiDice you have to deposit separately for every bet and withdraw after. It's no wonder it's slower with such overhead.

Quote:
Originally Posted by northeastbeast
So now all of the following need to be true:

1. He has to have bets placed on his site at 200x the rate of a dice site that has been mentioned in prominent news publications like the New York Times.
Yes. Just-Dice is better in every way than SatoshiDice, as I explained in a previous post. SatoshiDice recently tried launching an off-chain competitor for Just-Dice called "tribute" or some such, but it was a bug-ridden disaster that was quickly withdrawn. Apparently they plan to relaunch it "soon".

Quote:
Originally Posted by northeastbeast
2. The reported traffic statistics on his site from sites that track them have to be inaccurate by at least 400-1 ratio.
That wouldn't be surprising. Bitcoin users don't install crappy 'toolbars', so how would the stats be collected? It's a single page site for the most part, so it's hard to judge how long the average visit lasts for. But I just demonstrated that your math here was all wrong.

[QUOTE=northeastbeast;41954382]3. Owners of bitcoin worth millions of dollars would have had to trust him by sending them to just-dice.com instead of a site where they could bet remotely and maintain control of their +million dollar pile of coins.

That is demonstrably the case. See https://blockchain.info/address/14o7...J6USgChq7iWF86 - it's where I keep the millions of dollars worth of funds that are bankrolling the site. If you don't believe me, I can cryptographically sign a message using that Bitcoin address. There's an example of such a signature in the Just-Dice FAQ.

Quote:
Originally Posted by northeastbeast
4. Then the whales have to win to such a large degree that it alters the results of the websites 530 million bets at a 1 percent advantage to create a situation that has a 1 and 25 chance of happening.
1 in 25 chances happen about 4% of the time. We've covered this one.
Bitcoin Dice Site Called Just-Dice.com Rigged or Not? Quote
01-28-2014 , 01:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blufter
Or they are entirely different types of sites.

SatoshiDice is a site where every bet involves two Bitcoin transactions, whereas Just-Dice lets you deposit, make a million bets on a single page, all on-site, and then withdraw. Approximately 0 Bitcoin transactions per bet as opposed to 2 Bitcoin transactions per bet at SatoshiDice. Note also that over a certain (secret) bet size threshold SatoshiDice doesn't process a bet until it is confirmed on the Bitcoin blockchain. That takes an average of 10 minutes to happen, whereas Just-Dice doesn't impose such delays. We do wait for a single blockchain confirmation before crediting your deposit to your account, but after that you can place as many bets as you like without awaiting further confirmations.

Just-Dice has pretty much killed SatoshiDice's traffic from what I can see, on account of having around half the house edge, much bigger maximum bets, almost 100% uptime, responsive customer support, many more choices of odds and payouts and lots of other stuff I've no doubt forgotten. But this isn't a commercial for Just-Dice. Let's try to stay on topic shall we?
I stand by my posts. Rigged or not, running that type of business on a dot.com site is unlikely to end well for you. You have an opportunity to back off of this thing with a nice profit and start something with no legal risk. Do you really want to end up in prison? They are already wary of online gambling but online gambling with Bitcoin for millions of dollars?

Yeah so I am done posting. In a way if you think about it maybe I am helping you. GL.
Bitcoin Dice Site Called Just-Dice.com Rigged or Not? Quote
01-28-2014 , 04:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by northeastbeast
I stand by my posts. Rigged or not, running that type of business on a dot.com site is unlikely to end well for you. You have an opportunity to back off of this thing with a nice profit and start something with no legal risk. Do you really want to end up in prison? They are already wary of online gambling but online gambling with Bitcoin for millions of dollars?

Yeah so I am done posting. In a way if you think about it maybe I am helping you. GL.
Do you work for one of the sites I'm outcompeting? That's a funny plot twist.

Check out this chart showing site profit vs. expected profit over the last few months. The expected profit line had to be moved down some 37k BTC to fit it on the page, but other than that it's kind of amazing to me how closely actual and expected profit follow each other:

Bitcoin Dice Site Called Just-Dice.com Rigged or Not? Quote
01-28-2014 , 08:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by northeastbeast
4. 1 in 25
Erm no... Online poker isn't rigged with 99.5% certainty just because you got dealt pocket aces.

Juk
Bitcoin Dice Site Called Just-Dice.com Rigged or Not? Quote
01-28-2014 , 08:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blufter
Do you work for one of the sites I'm outcompeting? That's a funny plot twist.

He is not a secret agent shill for a competitor, and actually his is a very common behavior for riggies when they eventually run out of steam with their argument, and to be fair he went with a more muted form of a dramatic exit speech than most riggies in his situation. He likely will post again because they tend to do the drama queen exit, but then ruin it by coming back over and over.

This has been an interesting thread in that it does show that when there is opportunity (in this case degens and bitcoins) that there will be some good opportunities that reduce over time due to the natural development of competition or government intervention of some sort.

One thing that did stand out is that you seem to be running a business handling quite a lot of money with almost no real resources behind it, and at least to me that does not seem like a proper long term mix. While I do not care whether your website has a hyphen in it or not, I do wonder where you expect this business to be in for instance a year from now in terms of competition and the product you offer.

The whiny riggie does have a point in that you are running a gambling site and at least in the US or Canada that is specifically not allowed, so the legal risk would not be zero in those locations (no idea where you are located).
Bitcoin Dice Site Called Just-Dice.com Rigged or Not? Quote

      
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