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Big Or Bust in Vegas Big Or Bust in Vegas

03-10-2012 , 06:06 AM
Okay for some reason I have been pondering about gambling and how variance and averages work themselves out over our history of gambling.

So here's my question:
You are headed to vegas with $100 and you know you want to either try and end up with =>$1000, or go home having tried your best and busted. You know your trip is limited and time is not on your side so you figure at max you will only be able to make 100 total bets on your trip (or as few as one if you like).

What bets and/or betting strategies would you use to try your best to break $1000?


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My Thoughts
It seems that to have the best chance of breaking a $1000 might not come from playing the game with the best odds, but ones with bigger payout ratios in hopes that variance is in your favor.

Also how do you balance risk of ruin vs betting too small at the beginning to ever be able to hit your goal? I mean hoping you can bet it all in BJ and win 5 times in a row doesn't seem like the best best(3%). If you play 20$ a hand in BJ to get to $1000 in 100 bets you need to win 75 out of 100 (assuming you didn't push) which is somewhere around ~.000012% chance of that happening. Do you throw down 29 bucks on a number in single zero roulette 3 times (7.7% single zero)?

Maybe this has a simple answer that I am missing, sorry to ramble so much. Hope this makes sense. Thanks
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03-10-2012 , 12:30 PM
Against any fair game, you would have a 10% chance of success. Every bet you make with a house edge is going to reduce your chance. You want as little exposure as possible. You already correctly noticed that if you are going to play roulette, you should play single numbers rather than placing large bets on odd-even. To get best results at BJ you have to be able to afford to split and double down - perhaps $50 on the first hand and $100 once you have $200 in your pocket.

Are there still casinos that give better than 5:1 odds on craps? If there are, you can place small pass bets at a 1.4% loss and then place large even-money bets if your shooter makes a point. Each initial bet just large enough to enable you to bet all the rest of your chips on the fair bet if a point comes up.
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