Big Blind Ante - Gambling and Probability

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02-14-2019 , 06:38 PM

Didace

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Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 19,858

This isn't strictly probability, but I know some guys here do simulations. Is this true?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg (FossilMan)

If you ran a series of simulations where you took 13 players of equal skill level, gave them random distributions of chips at the start of each simulation, and played it out to a single winner each time, with a "traditional" ante structure, you would find that the 6 players who started at the 6-handed table would achieve slightly worse results than those who started at the 7-handed table. Same thing would happen if you started with 11 players, to those who started at the 5-handed table.

With the BBA structure, this disadvantage to being at the short-handed table would increase slightly, because the cost-per-orbit increase also increases variance at the short-handed table. And it is this increase in variance that leads to the inferior results. Because there is value to mere survival at this stage of a tournament, anything that increases variance at your table, if it does not also change something else, will reduce your equity while at that table.

Cheers, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

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02-15-2019 , 12:03 AM

whosnext

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What link in the chain are you questioning?

I think I agree with everything Greg says. The only point I am not so sure about is that "high variance" leads to "worse results".

I guess that in some scenarios building a larger stack (via higher variance) would lead to better results (say, via ICM). But then you'd need to have a way to evaluate different sets of tournament finishes. Maybe there'd be more low finishes but also more high finishes?

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02-15-2019 , 11:41 AM

Didace

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I feel that stack sizes of individual player, and each table as a whole, is more important than the number of players at each table.

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02-15-2019 , 12:36 PM

whosnext

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Completely agree with that.

I thought Greg was saying that you start each simulation with the exact same number of chips for the players then play it out once with regular antes and once with BBA, that the players at the short table would have worse results in the BBA simulations than in the regular antes simulations.

I guess you are saying that how the tournament plays out is a much greater factor in who wins than the BBA vs RA factor, and probably swamps the BBA factor.

I probably agree with that too.

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02-21-2019 , 04:01 PM

antialias

grinder

Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 590

Quote:

If you ran a series of simulations where you took 13 players of equal skill level,...

Which may be true. but it's not really a relevant question because if you put people with exactly equal skill levels at a table you're not playing poker but you're gambling.

The thing about a BB ante is: it is faster and thus allows for more hands to be played. This will cause any edge to become more pronounced in the end result. Any slight change in variance should be easily offset by this.

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02-22-2019 , 01:08 PM

Didace

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Quote:

Originally Posted by antialias

Which may be true. but it's not really a relevant question because if you put people with exactly equal skill levels at a table you're not playing poker but you're gambling.

It's a theoretical question about how much a big blind ante changes the game. I think (and it's only a guess) that stack sizes of individual players a a bigger impact than the number of players at each table. You say skill level trumps all in real life. That may be true but it's not my question.

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02-22-2019 , 05:50 PM

antialias

grinder

Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 590

Well, you're not asking a question about poker. You're asking:
If I play a game where a random person wins how will bringing in a large forced ante by one be different than a smaller forced ante by all.
And of course that will disadvantage the one who brings in the large ante in the first game the most..and each successive player to a lower degree.

However, if we are actually playing poker (and not gambling) the first player to bring in the large ante will also be on the button soon. Which - last I checked - was an advantage.

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02-22-2019 , 06:01 PM

Didace

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Quote:

Originally Posted by antialias

It's a question about tournament structure. Specifically, in the late stages of MTT that uses a BBA, where there is a table imbalance (read the OP), what makes a larger difference in results - being on a table with one less player, or having more chips in play on a table?

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