Hello,
trying to write a spreadsheet to examine PFR ranges vs limpers in LLSNL

I'm a little stuck here...

We have 4 players left to act. ( in this example two limpers two blinds, we are btn)

% of range each player will flat call=
12%
12%
35%
35%


Can someone please help me breakdown percentages for how often we will be called by 1, 2 3, and 4 players respectively, assuming none of them vary their strategy based on calls ahead of them? ( please include equations/show work I need to be able to plug this in for variable call% and various other scenarios)

There are 2^4= 16 possible combinations of calls/folds.

Let Nc represent player N callling and let Nf be player N folding.
So, 1c = 12% and 3f =65%.

Then, for example, one case of 2 callers is

P(1c 2f 3f 4c) = 0.12 * 0.88 * 0.65 * 0.35 = 2.4%

where the independence assumption allows us to simply multiply the appropriate probabilities.

In Excel, you can set up a matrix of all 16 possibilities – e.g. 1C 2F 3F 4C in cells A5, B5, C5, D5 for the above combination. Then for each cell, use the formula in another matrix of the form, F5: if(A5 =”1C”, 0.12, 0.88), H5: if (C5 = “3C”, 0.35, 0.65) etc. Then when all numerical entries are made, multiply the results in each column for the combo probability.

Hope this makes sense. What I would probably do is program this in VBA.

I did the above and got the following

Callers	Prob
0	32.7%
1	44.2%
2	19.7%
3	3.2%
4	0.2%

This makes a lot of sense. Thank you for the explanation and for running it!
If you don't mind me asking a follow up question, what is VBA?

It stands for Visual Basic Applications. It is a programming tool to solve problems using the Excel spreadsheet and functions. For example, if you have a column of data in cells A5, A6, …, A10, you can get the sum of squares with the following code:

SumSq =0

For I = 5 to 10: SumSq = SumSq + Range(“A” & I)^2: Next

Range(“A” & 12)= SumSq

Typical of me. Write a 3 line program and screw it up. Didn't realize SumSq is a VBA function. Here is a another version.

Sub test()

X = 0
Cells(12, 2) = "Sum of Squares"

For I = 5 To 10: X= X + Cells(I, 1) ^ 2: Next

Cells(12, 1) = X

End Sub