Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 5,081
If you're kelly-betting in both cases then the bankroll swings are the same in theory, because for instance, in both cases there's a 1% chance of being reduced to $10 from your original $1000 (in an infinite timeline).
However, the -500 kelly bet grows your bankroll more quickly, because
(1+.25*.2)^.875 * (1-.25)^.125
>
(1+.0125*4)^.21 * (1-.0125)^.79