If a player is playing full time poker and they are using a poker variance calculator to guide them in moving up stakes, and how many buy ins to use for each stake, what should they use as their risk of ruin %?

Moving up and down stakes according to the bankroll.



Risk of Ruin Bankroll Required, 10 BB winrate was used with a 170 standard deviation for 6max plo.
50% 1,001.60
25% 2,003.20
10% 3,327.24
5% 4,328.83
2% 5,652.87
1% 6,654.47
0.5% 7,656.07
0.1% 9,981.71
0.01% 13,308.94


5% we need 43 buy ins and 1% 67 buy ins and 130 buy ins for 0.01%

0.01% seems too conservative but than again should it be the % used if you cant afford to go broke or is it too conservative?


Living expenses are separate so this question only applies to bankroll which is the players only income, and lets say it was a bot playing so tilting due to swings is no issue, basically bot plays.

poker variance calculator http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/poke...uirements.html

Yeah .01% is probably too nitty because going bust probably isn't the end of the world. You could make close to $20/hr delivering pizza and save up a new bankroll that way.

Also, the calculator assumes you won't move down in stakes when your bankroll is low. You should decide beforehand at what BR you'll move down in stakes and how low you'd go before just using your last remaining $ to take a shot (rather than move down again).

For instance if you have 10k and would move down at 6k, then use the calculator to find P(fall to 6k). From there, use it to find P(fall to next level) and so on, factoring in your presumably higher bb/hr at the lower stakes.
Then P(ruin) = P(fall to 6k) * P(fall to __) * ...

As for what % you should aim for, that's a good question.

I have an idea: set RoR = (min buyin at the lowest stakes you'd play) / (bankroll)

That would mimic the Kelly Criterion's RoR and might therefore mimic its growth more closely than other RoR's, but I haven't given this any thought.

Edit - also take into account the fact that you'll be withdrawing from your winnings to pay bills / buy things. The way to factor that in is to estimate what % of your winnings will actually feed your BR and plug that into the calculator as your winrate.