Currently 3 teams are fighting of 3rd and 4th place in PL (leaving Tottenham out of this since it is extremely unlikely to happen). What makes this interesting is that Leicester and Chelsea face each other in next game but that's the only game where any of the 3 teams face each other. Win is worth 3 points, draw:1 point, loss:0

3. Leicester - 66 Points
4. Chelsea - 64 points
5. Liverpool - 63 Points

My knowledge of statistics is lacking but what would be the correct approach to try to find the probability of each team making it top 4 or any team being left out ?

Is this something to be calculated with Markov chains or what would be the correct approach? Any quick example would be much appreciated but the main question is which tool to use?

It sounds like Monte Carlo simulations are what you probably want to look into. That’s the method commonly used in situations like this where you need probabilistic insight into a question but aren’t sure how to answer it with any formulas or distributions that you are aware of. It shouldn’t take too much work to code out an MC simulator from scratch in Python or R… if you are doing it in Excel it can get tedious but is certainly still possible.

Beyond that I’ll stay in my lane as I don’t know anything about EPL hah.

Thanks. My first instinct was to go with Monte carlo but then thought there may be better solutions around. I probably run it as a test and then use Python to test different approaches.