Quote:
Originally Posted by Sherman
It almost has to be that way by definition doesn't it? That is, my intuition is that results of hands where you had less than 50% equity are going to be skewed right and results of hands where you had greater than 50% equity are going to be skewed left. Maybe my intuition is wrong though.
Why do you think so?
There may be a skew in the relative sizes of the buckets according to playing style, but the offset from expectation (measured in standard deviations of hands won, not chips) shouldn't be skewed for any reason other than random variance. My suggestion however, is that he needs to choose smaller buckets than simply <50 and >50, and then do an exact average equity for each bucket (NOT a monte carlo as wykh has mentioned he does). Two buckets isn't very meaningful unless you could do many players, and however it breaks down it doesn't tell you anything useful. Luck doesn't care whether you (specifically) were ahead or not.
Last edited by spadebidder; 03-28-2011 at 02:56 PM.