Aye lads,

I've recently started grinding the apps and play Spin-It games there, the equivalent of PS's Spin & Go's.
Usually when I ask sites about the average cut the site takes from each spin game, I'll get a message back that the unfavorable jackpot structure means players drop like 7.8% of their buy-in per game on average or something like that. The club I play at can't provide this information unfortunately. I was wondering if someone here is brains enough to be able to calculate what percentage of the buy-in you drop on average per game when the jackpot structure is as follows:

1) Spin-It format #1
Prize Pool Multiplier:..........Probability:
100x------------------------------1 in 10,000
25x-------------------------------10 in 10,000
10x-------------------------------60 in 10,000
5x---------------------------------900 in 10,000
3x---------------------------------4092 in 10,000
2x---------------------------------4937 in 10,000

2) Spin-It format #2
Prize Pool Multiplier:.........Probability:
1000x----------------------------1 in 100,000
200x------------------------------3 in 100,000
100x------------------------------5 in 100,000
25x-------------------------------80 in 100,000
10x-------------------------------700 in 100,000
5x---------------------------------7600 in 100,000
3x---------------------------------43,678 in 10,000
2x---------------------------------4937 in 10,000

Would be very helpful if someone is able to calculate what percentage of one's buy-in on average goes to the site.

Regards,
Tuff

Does

10x-------------------------------60 in 10,000

mean that in 10,000 games, in 60 of them a player has won 10 timex his buy in?

After checking the Internet, I think the factors such as 10x is for the total buy-in. Therefore, 10x and 60 in 10,000 means there is a 0.006 chance the prize amount will be 10 times the total buy-in.

Given each of 3 players has a buy-in of 1, the total buy-in is 3 and the expected or average payout to the single winner is 2.76 for the first format. Then each player can expect to win 2.76/3 = 0.92 for a drop of 8%. I assume there is also a rake, which makes for additional drop.

After guessing on a correction of a bad number in the 2nd table, the 2nd format has similar results with a drop of about 7%.

Really approx.

But I have 2.68 and 2.78 for each.. Wasn't sure of input on 2ND

So 11% and 7% they take.... A lot of decimal points easy to make error..

The two or 3 lowest layouts drive literally all the EV

I think the typo is completely wrong... Any assumption I make on it makes the probabilities add up to more than 100%

Format 1 has exactly 8% drop as statmanhal says. There is no additional rake, so the 8% drop *is* the rake. This is exactly how you derive the rake from any sites spin probabilities.

Format 2 has at least 1 typo in the last two rows.
I've tried assuming row 3x is correct other than it's out of 100,000, and row 2x is incorrect, and that resolves as 8.53333% drop/rake.
I've tried assuming row 2x is correct and row 3x is wrong, but that resolves as 9.0123333% drop/rake.

Can you post the source of the probabilities OP?

Sorry mate, you're completely right about me ****ing up the last two rows in format 2.
Here are the probability sheets:

Format 1:


Format 2:



It means you spin 10x the amount a single player puts in. So when you play a $100 buy-in, three players buy in for $100 and $700 is added to create a 10x multiplier prize pool ($1,000,-).

If I interpret what you mentioned correctly, you're wrong about what a 10x multiplier means. The total buy-in for a $100 Spin-It game would be $100 x 3 (players) = $300,- When you spin a 10x, the prize up for grabs would be $1,000,-, so it's 10x what a single player has put in. You have 0.6% (60 out of 10.000) chance of spinning a 10x in this format.

There's no additional rake.

Yeah, I butchered it. Apologies to all. If you guys want to have another go, I've put screenshots up of the exact probabilities both games within the format offer.
Edges are incredibly close in this format by the way. A lot of players lose put in tons of volume, and up losing prerakeback and end up winning postrakeback, so even half a percent difference is massive.

ok,

i got 2.76 and 2.85 as payouts on 3... so 8% and 5%........

interestingly, seems like the difference is basically the 1 in 100,000 chance at $10000... that is worth 10 cents, which is the difference (actually 9 cents) in the 2 games.

maybe someone can confirm the numbers.

Both the above prize tables are raked at exactly 8%.

I'm a math noob, so I can't really decipher which answer is correct. That been said, both at 8% seems a lot more plausible. Would be pretty crazy if one rakes you 5% and the other 8%, would make for a career changing difference in this format whether you play one or the other.

Thanks for the help, gents!

other poster is indeed correct..

looks like 2.76 on both payout structures.

OP, the math is not that daunting...............

make one column the "# of instances" and they add up to 10k or 100k, depending on which payout structure... next column is those numbers divided by 10k or 100k.

3rd column = payouts.

multiple 2nd column and 3rd column entries to make 4th column.. add up 4th column..... or do shortcut on EXCEL. SUMPRODUCT function.