@David Sklansky and
nickthegeek
Thanks for answers. Means a lot to me.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nickthegeek
Think about the following scenario. You conduct this experiment.
Step 1: You prepare an urn with a very big number of fair coins. You instruct a guy to randomly draw a coin from the urn, flip the coin and register the result (H/T). The guy repeats the above N times.
Step 2: Same as step 1, except now the urn shall contain half of the coins with two heads and the other half with two tails.
At the end the guy gives you the two H/T sequences without telling you which one comes from which step. Do you think you can tell a sequence from the other?
No, I am sure I can not tell difference in this two cases. Thanks for nice scenario and better explanation. I really do not want to troll here, but I am still not sure about this. I would like to "get this".
Look at this:
example #1): we are flipping 1000 fair coins. Our results will be(sequence): H, T, H,H, T,T, and so on. and at the end our results will be 500 H and 500 T(close to that number).
example #2): we are flipping 1000 unfair coins. Our results will be: first 500 flips will end up with heads and last 500 flips will end up with tails. Results will be still 50% vs 50% and if we would look only the end results everything would look good. If we would look only unfair coin´s end results we would easily mistake them with "fair" coin´s end results. But the difference is in sequence(or distribution of results: do not know the correct word).
This two examples i just give because want to show my "thought problem".
So to go back to my over/under x points at basketball. I still think there will be different sequence at results in sports betting 50% vs 50%(by odds) if we compare it to coinflip sequence. I mean, I am sure at the end both will have very close to 50% vs 50% results. End results would be the same. But sequence: I am still not sure.