-414 Buyins under EV in 336k hands : Odds of this happening - Gambling and Probability

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-414 Buyins under EV in 336k hands : Odds of this happening

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03-05-2020 , 10:29 PM

Mig

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,933

Hi guys,

My stats are beyond rusty. If anyone could help me figure this out

EV Win Rate of = 2.73
Effective Win rate of = -9.60
# of hands played = 336000
std dev / 100 =130

Buy ins under ev = 414

The poker calculator on pokerdope is giving me odds of 0.0000%

So this run is likely to be a 1 in 10 000 000 at this point. I'd like to be able to do the calculation by myself

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03-07-2020 , 03:50 PM

Yoshi63

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 1,940

I don't know how to mathematically calculate it, but I ran 5000 simulations and found the following:

-Expected bb won (calculated): 2.73*3360 = 9172.8
-Expected bb won (observed): 9374.06
-Standard deviation: 7564.8

The observed data fell within the boundaries as follows:
-One standard deviation (expected 68.27%) = 0.6746
-Two standard deviations (expected 95.45%) = 0.9556
-Three standard deviations (expected 99.73%) = 0.9968

It appears to be normally distributed. As such, a run of 414 buyins under EV would be 414 / 75.68 = 5.47 sigma.

About 1 in 44.5 million chance.

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03-07-2020 , 08:36 PM

Mig

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,933

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yoshi63

Thanks for taking the time to do this, really appreciated.

Hadn't thought about this methodology. Might give it a try. Ty

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03-11-2020 , 09:57 AM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Which site? This isn't quite proof of rigging but I wouldn't want to play there anymore.

(2.73-(-9.6))/(130/sqrt(3360)) = 5.50 standard deviations. However, AIEV isn't the same as your true win-rate since it only removes one aspect of luck. I'm not sure how this should be accounted for.

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04-01-2020 , 11:34 PM

SligoFella

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 38

Hmmmm ... might be the balance for the super user at UB

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04-10-2020 , 01:17 PM

NewOldGuy

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,935

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

However, AIEV isn't the same as your true win-rate since it only removes one aspect of luck. I'm not sure how this should be accounted for.

The proper way to account for it would be to use only all-in hands as the denominator, not ALL hands. That greatly inflates the deviation. It isn't close to 5 sigma.

The number of times a player decides to go all in is not random, and so using all hands in the calculation is pure nonsense. The absolute values given by these variance calculators are interesting for what they are, but you can't interpret them the way the OP is trying to do. And the fact that "pokerdope" software builds in such a calculation indicates they also don't understand their own statistic.

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04-10-2020 , 05:13 PM

SligoFella

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 38

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewOldGuy

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