Quote:
Originally Posted by whosnext
Are you commenting on the minimum number of wins to guarantee being in the top half?
The simulation should not be considered dispositive evidence in that question.
TomCowley posted above that that answer is 44 in the case of 31 teams and I translated his reasoning into a formula (3N-5)/2.
I understand the limitations of the simulation. However, it indicates clearly that the chance to get knocked out after winning 34 games is very very close to zero.
It's so close that I would question whether both the derived formula and the sim results can both be correct.