I saw some article a while ago actually examining Kobe's play in moments that could be defined as clutch and the results weren't great.


I couldn't find it again, but found this one in the same vein although without all of the raw data and calculations:

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...in-crunch-time


Here is another:

http://www.libertyballers.com/2012/2...fs-4th-quarter


And another:

http://www.poundingtherock.com/2013/...tephen-hawking



Of course I bet all the articles even use somewhat different definitions of "clutch".

If we are going to take this seriously (sort of), then ... : Is he going to drive you to the hospital or call an ambulance after cutting off your foot? If he just cuts off your foot and leaves you somewhere where it is unlikely someone will find you quickly, then I think you will have to take into account some sort of chance that you lose your life here, not just your foot.

Also, even if you do win, you are going to have to pay taxes on this Ferrari. So, do you have enough $ to do this? If not, you will have to sell the car so you can pay the taxes and, therefore, any value the car had for you over its monetary worth is gone. Unless of course we want to branch off and assume you won't pay taxes and calculate the percentage of you getting caught and the percentage that you end up owing a ton more money and the percentage you end up in jail for tax evasion.



Personally, off the top of my head, I am guessing I would pretty much need a 100% chance of winning. Even if the car was tax free, I don't care so much about getting a Ferrari. Sure, it would be kinda cool I guess, though I'm sure I would just sell it anyway.

Why is it that your friend values cutting off your foot at 1/89th the value of his Ferrari? Would he pay a grand to cut off your foot?

Seems pretty obvious to me. I mean, presumably he gets to keep the foot...

After I posted that I got to thinking and actually did a search myself. Kobe's results, as you say, weren't that great. Jordan's on the other hand went the other way. This illustrates how powerful stats can be when analyzing history if you ask the right questions. Is what you think you saw real?

And who wants a Ferrari? There's no room for gear and they're always in the shop. I'll keep my foot.

Why would you presume that? The bet was just for cutting off the foot. It's still his foot.

Pretty sure the value in cutting off your friend's foot is so that every time he gives you **** about something you can be like, "Hey, do you remember that time I cut your foot off? STFU!" Or something like that. Of course, if it were me, I would just be like, "Hey do you see the Ferrari I own? STFU!" Seems less messy.

He could put the foot on ice and get it reattached. Then the whole thing is mainly an inconvenience and quite possibly well worth 89 Ferraris.

Probably should just take the bet. It is like the guy has half an out on the river. And I have never seen a hand with half an out on the river win before.

The odds are in his favor 89:1.

Just to answer some of your guy's question as to why my friend is doing this I'll tell you. My friend is very artistic and is building a collage of body parts and bones for art prize. I haven't seen it yet, but I hear that it is going to be pretty cool. He's gathered most of the body parts he needs from the local morgues. But they've decided to blacklist him for some reason. He's trying to find new, legal, creative ways to collect body parts. Right now he needs to collect more feet.

I did accept the challenge by the way. I was so nervous when I started, but man the adrenaline felt good. Unfortunately I didn't succeed so he cut off my foot.

I won't go into the details of how he cut off my foot, but I can assure you it was pretty disgusting so ugh. You get the picture.

@BruceZ: Thanks anyway for discovering the odds for me. Just crazy how variance can be in situations like this. Damn the variance. The variance got to me and I lost a foot. I really feel like I'm in a downswing. However, I feel more confident next time. I think my chances of succeeding will be greater now that I have more experience under my belt.

@Lego05: My friend was nice enough to give me medical care. So I didn't bleed to death. That would be pretty cruel to just leave me there after cutting my foot. As for taxes on the Ferrari, my friend would have paid them off for me.

Thanks everyone else for your comments. I'm going to do this again once my wound heals. I wanted 15 shots instead of ten for the next time. So I told my friend that next time I need 20 shots to make it more fair. We talked for awhile and he bartered it down to 15. That is the number I originally wanted. Ha ha! What a sucker he is.

Wish me luck on getting that Ferrari. And I will flaunt it around town.

Win the next one and you'll have the car and all the best parking spots.

LOL.

This is an A+ thread.

Comparing the hot hand in three point shooting in basketball games to OP's question is apples and oranges. In games, data show that guys who miss a few threes in a row are more likely to make the next one, and guys who make a few threes in a row are more likely to miss the next one, and for good reason. If you've missed a few in a row, you tend to be more selective on the next one, and the defense might be more likely to let you shoot. If you've made a few in a row, you're more likely to try a 'heat-check' against tighter D.

Shooting from the same spot against a clock, if we say you make 25% on average, I'd model that as something like 22% to make your first few, then 27% (as your muscle memory zeroes in on the target), then 20% on your last few due to getting tired.

Free throws in games are more interesting since shot selection/defense isn't an issue. But you're only shooting 1, 2, or occasionally 3 at a time so the short term muscle memory is different than shooting 20 in a row.

I just thought I'd stop by to update you all on what has happened in the past 8 years. I learned a lot since then. I was young and arrogant thinking that my free throw rate was 45%, but it was realistically much lower than that especially under pressure. I also fell victim to the sunk cost fallacy and lost not only my foot, but much more. It was a slow process, but I ended up losing both legs and arms in additional challenges. I also lost an ear, an eye, my tongue, my dick, and my good kidney. I think that is everything, but I may have possibly lost more.

It got to a point where I could no longer shoot a basketball (when I lost both my arms). Eventually I was spitting into a wastepaper basket. I did eventually win a bet and get the Ferrari. My friend wasn't a good sport about it, but I can understand since he lost such a big ticket item.

I now have a series of medical conditions due to the extreme toll these bets have placed on my body. I have sat in the Ferrari, but I could not drive it due to a lack of appendages. So it mostly just sat in my garage for the longest time. I ended up experiencing trauma every time I'd look at the Ferrari, because it became a reminder of the hardship I faced to get it. I was expecting to be happy once I got the car, but it was a bit anticlimactic to be honest.

I eventually sold the car and put the proceeds into BitConnect which was an investment that ended up going to $0. Ironically it was my friend who repurchased the car from me at a discount. I sold it at a discount because I desperately needed money and wanted to get rid of it quickly.

My friend has been in and out of prison for cannibalistic charges, but he's had a pretty good lawyer and has dodged a few bullets when it comes to the law. Overall, he's been very supportive of me and my journey through life.

Despite my conditions, I am still optimistic sometimes when I'm not crying myself to sleep. I've been videoing myself talking about my hardships on a Facebook livestream and how to stay positive. I also met my wife there. She came from another country and will be getting her green card next week which is really exciting.

A lot of females are attracted to me in general despite my scarred appearance. It is all about confidence of which I have plenty. Nothing else matters, but confidence. Looks don't matter. My wife is proof of that. My confidence even landed me a Ted Talk, but the producers decided against airing the story because they suspected that my story was made up. Oh well, haters gonna hate.

FAQ:
How do you move around?
I usually hop with my torso like a Veggie Tales character or like the Zoloft potato creature. I also have a scooter, like what the beggar man uses in the Xfiles. Except I use my head to get around instead of arms.

Aren't you mad at your friend for cutting you up?
No, I take full responsibility for my actions. Lately he has been upset with me. He says that I've been self absorbed and that I should visit him and marvel at his achievements. He also is upset with the fact that I won't do any more bets involving losing my body parts.

What is your newest venture?
I am now partaking in a clinical drug trial that also includes pushing lard through a tube that goes into my body. I can't go into too much detail, because I signed an NDA.

20 shots a minute is really optimistic, I think... Unless you have an credible set up. I.e. Tons of balls and racks

Fun, fun bet. I didn't read it all. Is it NBA or college line??

The average 3-point % in the NBA last year was roughly 36%.

And you can shoot 25%?

I'm skeptical.

You are guarded in the NBA. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of people who shoot free throws better than any NBA player, including some over 60 years old. Unguarded shooting skill is only moderately correlated with overall basketball skill. There are probably many tens of thousands of people at the very least who could surpass 25%.

I feel this statement supports Dom's point.