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Players Waiting to Fold Improved My Draw! Players Waiting to Fold Improved My Draw!

10-22-2015 , 11:45 AM
A neat little gem from my bag of tricks that I've mostly kept to myself and doubt is very well known.

Here's an relevant hand where I had put it to use:
Playing in a live NLH game 7 handed, I had opened up UTG and got 2 easy calls directly on my left plus a button call.

EP callers range were typically mid PP, AXs, KQo, most suited Broadway's, some suited connectors/gappers. Since they were "easy calls" I removed some calls that may have considered a raise or a fold which is a basic tell that Most should already know. This is more true in EP.

Button, despite having position, was very tight and his range would favor the high cards in the above range. He played a very straight forward game.

I was well known as an aggressive player.

Flop was a Txx two tone board with the T being one of the suited cards.

The two on my left both had no interest after seeing the flop. Note that those who are folding don't usually care about hiding this fact since they're out of the hand any way.

It checked to the button who bet, I called with a weak FD, and two folds.

Buttons play was too transparent and I knew he would take a free card if on a draw. He would also wait till the turn to bet a middle PP into three players.

Blank on the turn
After my check, the button made a smallish bet.
I recall it was still to much to call with only 9 outs but I was close to getting the right implied odds as I often got paid on my river value bets.

Normally I'd just fold but here's the trick. Given the reads and ranges I could tell that all thee opponents hands were heavily weighted against holding my suit.

I felt that I could easily remove 5 cards from the stub for my flush outs so that instead of having the odds of 9/46 (19.5%) my odds were now ~9/41(22.5%) adding about a half percent for each card I could remove. This gave me the odds to make the call.

If you are in doubt, lets go through it.

The two mucked hands:
If their hand was suited, than they couldn't be in my suit.
No PPs or they'd pay more attention hope it checked through on the flop.
This leaves KQo So the only combos that held my suit was the KsQx, KxQs
Or 8 combos holding only one of my suit, out of maybe 80 combos in the muck that couldn't have my suit.

That's only 5% of the four mucked cards were in my suit.

The button holding a T given his range almost certainly had to be suited as well.

Last edited by TakenItEasy; 10-22-2015 at 11:54 AM.
Players Waiting to Fold Improved My Draw! Quote
10-22-2015 , 12:09 PM
Most of this sounds like total nonsense. Feel like you're making too many random assumptions to help your case.

Last edited by Cantrell; 10-22-2015 at 12:15 PM. Reason: removed 2nd part
Players Waiting to Fold Improved My Draw! Quote

      
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