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A hand like AX has decent showdown value and isn't likely to get many worse hands to call so why would hero bet AX instead of checking back
I agree. Ax on this board is a check (as hero) - definitely not a bet. But as can be seen by the OP there are those who are convinced that betting would be better.
For me the final answer what to do (as villain) really boils down to villain's perception of hero.
OP states villain is a good player. But since you disagree with a value bet of AT (by hero) then maybe hero is
not a good player.
If villain is really a good player he may well have picked up on the fact that hero is not good and play accordingly.
The only hands hero gets value from (that I can see being played this way by villain) are A2s-A5s...maybe so far as to limit it specifically to Ad2d-Ad5d (which would have definitely never checked dark). The hands that beat hero are all trips, boats, quads and all remaining combinations of AJ and AQ.
Lets not forget that when villain checked dark he held two pair and the 3s were not yet overcoated. So on a (most likely) non-paired board runout he was (at least to my mind) in value-bet territory. If he aimed for getting value then the check in the dark must have been made with the intention to induce a bluff/bet by Ax or QQ- , right?
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Hero is the PFR and his range is uncapped. Why can't he have QQ or JJ??
Continuation betting on a board with two overcards and two people left in the pot who have aces and kings in their range doesn't seem like a massively +EV move to me in this spot ( but as I learned in another thread I'm playing quite a bit too nitty, so I'm open to entertaining that it may be OK to do so).
Who am I getting to fold? Only weaker pairs and middling/low connectors/gappers (against whom I am ahead with QQ/JJ and whom I don't
want to fold). Anyone with an ace or king will continue and then I've just put money in the pot as an underdog. Same on the turn. I don't see a bet as QQ/JJ sensible in these spots (particularly not these tiny bets)
Last edited by antialias; 08-07-2018 at 10:16 AM.