This was in a $6/$12 HE game, 9-handed. The UTG player, a middle-aged man who seemed reasonably tight and conservative, raised preflop. Three players ahead of me called. I called with K
Q
on the button. The big blind called, so we were six-way to the flop.
The flop was Q
9
4
, giving me top pair with a decent kicker. The big blind checked. The UTG player also checked, which seemed to suggest that he had missed this flop (perhaps with a hand like AK) or was afraid of it multiway (perhaps with a hand like JJ or TT). Another player checked, but a MP player bet. The next player folded. I called with the intention of raising any safe card on the turn. The big blind folded. The UTG player now raised.
This check-raise suggested that he actually liked the flop a lot. A set seemed unlikely, as there was only one combo of QQ he could have, and I'm not sure he would've raised pre with 99. I figured the bottom of his range was exactly what I had: KQs. But he could also have AQ, KK, AA, or maybe A
K
. The flop bettor and I both called.
The turn was the 3
. When the dealer turned it, the UTG player stared at it and blinked rapidly 6 or 7 times; this reaction seemed genuine and beyond his control. I interpreted it as fear: whatever he had, he did not want to see a third diamond. So I eliminated many hands from his likely range. I didn't think he had a set; I didn't think he had A
K
; and if he had AA, KK, or even AQ, I didn't think he had a big diamond in his hand.
But despite this reaction, he seemed compelled to make a continuation bet on the turn after having check-raised the flop. The MP player called, and I raised, trying to attack the bettor's apparent weakness and represent a flush. He called, but I sensed it was with some reluctance or chagrin. The MP player folded, so we were now heads-up.
At this point I assumed his most likely holding was AA, KK, or AQ
without a diamond, and that he was hoping I had either (a) a smaller pair than his plus a flush draw with which I was semibluffing or (b) two pair that could be counterfeited on the end. I planned to bet pretty much every river that didn't pair the board (unless it was another Queen, which I would also bet).
The river was the 2
, for a final board of Q
9
4
3
2
. He checked. Normally I would check behind on a four-flush board if I didn't have a flush myself, but I was convinced he did not have a diamond, and I was pretty sure he had a better hand than mine, so I bet the river without hesitating. My line seemed consistent with a big flush, and he folded right away. So I guess my read on him was correct. What I'm wondering is, have others seen this particular tell (rapid, unconscious blinking upon seeing a turn or river card), and does it have a consistent meaning associated with it?
Thank you.