Yeah obviously this model is just way off, you can't just make basic assumptions like that. The vast majority of rake will come from hitting the rake cap postflop at 50NL. I'm offering 8.5bb/100 as what I've experienced over a few hundred thousand hands; though I'm sure I could rake more than average, I'm pretty sure I'm not more than 1bb/100 off.

Avg nl100 fr player pays 5ish/100 so ur numbers should be fairly accurate. Ive never thought about teh whole thing in that way before and its quite siq that u need at least one drooler to make table b/e post rb...

[spoiler]kind rgds from teh TimStone[/spoiler]

Half the regs are -2bb -1bb 0bb 0.5bb winners

so that does not work. They help pay for the rake

I always thought everybody who teaches for free is terrible and coaching is pretty much a scam...either that or any new form of coaching is doomsday and poker will be only for the rakeback pros soon.

Well said, and I totally agree with you. As opposed to recs learning about on-line poker via a banner ad where they need to figure things out themselves, they now can find out about it on Twitch, except that on Twitch they're being told about all the tools they need to become good even down to the thought process. And it's all free. Not good.[img]http://*************.com/yellow/images/59.gif[/img][img]http://*************.com/yellow/images/30.gif[/img]

I agree with that. But the assumption from those who fear twitch seems to be that there is no edge to be found against the regulars.

Rake cap and no flop no drop lowers the rake as well. And the rake is usually around 3-5%.

Those who fear twitch are not very good themselves...

You're right of course, but what did you expect? Stars isn't going to put a moratorium on poker training just so that you can maintain your winrate. You're a net withdrawer after all. The whole industry depends on depositors, not people that cash out.
It's depressing (for regs) that it will soon be almost impossible for anyone to earn a decent (western-level) income playing poker, but that was inevitable whether Twitch came along or not. Twitch might be the 'nail in the coffin' for you, but plenty of other people have already quit, because there are better ways to spend your time than being a rake slave.

Maybe you should start a stream to teach your viewers how awful it is being a pro poker player.

These are post-rake numbers not pre-rake.

Or you could you know use the actual rake in bb numbers people have posted here?

Who fears twitch?

+1

I read the entire post and your entire argument was a strawman which was easy to point out by just quoting that bit.

And the reason I didn't respond to this was it's completely irrelevant. You don't know anything about me and are making assumptions. I haven't played online poker in awhile. I believe if I was still playing professionally that I'd be a winner at small/midstakes 6m but who knows, I moved on to getting paid roughly the same amount as I was making from poker to do something I find more enjoyable and which has way more upward potential and looks better on a resume. The whole dealing with a boss thing and not being able to travel as much sucks sometimes but whatever I just played 10/25nl live last night got wasted and enjoyed playing rather than it being a grind.

But like I said that's irrelevant, the posts Tim and I have made are just dealing with facts. Twitch is bad for the profitability of professional poker players. Anything that encourages a gamer-type mentality towards poker is bad for it. I don't see how it has anything to do with how anyone plays or their ethics or how much anyone makes that's just irrelevant noise.

Undeniably true.
Anything that brings in more deposits will eventually result in more money in the pockets of winning players -- whether they be current winning players or future ones.

Little early to make this call as "facts".

I wonder if people blamed super system when it came out for ruining their livelyhood. I'm sure more than a few nits blamed 2+2 when they couldn't win anymore back in 2006. You guys seem pretty embittered for people who became millionaires in their 20s using 2+2 which was all the training sites rolled into one. All the best and the brightest commenting on hands lol.

But w/e you guys keep talking about facts that are just opinions.

If you aren't a player then you substitute "you" with "a poker player"......don't join the conversation implying you do play?



Twitch is not bad. Tim is scared of twitch creating -10bb/100 losers, I'm not sure what else to say.

Very true indeed in a world with zero or close to zero rake. Unfortunately very untrue in teh current economy with its rake system.



And people telling me im bitter or afraid or w/e. Im really not. I have made enough from poker that i have some money on teh side and can potentially do something else anytime.


What im criticizing is teh fact that teh majority of current players seem to view twitch as a very good thing. I can very well understand that twitch is pretty much stars wet dream and its hard to blame them for that - they are a business afterall.

What i cannot and never will understand is, that after everything what happend during the last years and how games developed still alot of current pro's welcome twitch with open arms or are at best neutral towards it.

Easily available education got us that far and decreased common winrates by up to 80% while the avg nl100 reg of today wouldve been +EV at almoast any 1k lineup in 2010. People get better and better but winrates decrease every year - isnt that abit concerning?
And now its gets even easier and everything gets provided absolutely for free and apart from a handful of people nobody seems to be concerned at all. Thats wat i just dont get...

[spoiler]kind rgds from teh TimStone[/spoiler]

So NOT true. If I deposit 20$ and grind up to a 6 digit profit, am i making the poker economy stronger? It's not always good. If i eat most of the fish, what will others reg eat?


I think there's a lot of comments where people are trying to make the wrong point. The OP didn't say that twitch is to be blamed of something or that it should be banned. He's just saying that people r praising something that will ultimately help poker die faster.


I believe it all resumes down to this fulcral question: "Will twitch help the game to become softer or harder?" If you can answer this, then all the debate is pointless. Combining all the goods and bads will give u the answer.

Would you table camp if it wasn't against stars t&s?

I do play though and I played for a living for several years. I have enough experience with how the poker ecosystem works to comment on this. You made it about my skill level/ability as a player though and that's just completely irrelevant. Whether I was WCG or a 2nl rakeback pro it wouldn't make a difference to the validity of my argument.

My first post itt was actually about how BF was not what made poker harder, it was just a scapegoat for an environment where even before BF more and more grinders were joining and there wasn't a stream of fish to accommodate them.

And I'm not even talking about what "could happen". Your last sentence just shows how little you know about the poker economy these days. When I started playing poker back in high school I was one of the only 50nl regs on Pokerstars. Today you can see a ton of 2nl hands posted on 2p2 with hands against "good regs". When I started out you could make a living seeing cheap flops with small pairs and stacking people when you hit a set. I remember people would literally make posts complaining that people were sitting out of sngs and still cashing and they should be banned from doing that.

I'm not saying all this just to show how much tougher poker is I'm saying that it's pretty obvious that a large reason this happened was people taking a more grind/gamer mentality towards poker. People who came to 2p2 asking for advice were told to use good BRM, move up slowly, make sure you can beat one level before playing the next. It's not that twitch might create people like this, it's that 2p2/coaching sites/the entire environment of poker has created plenty of people like that already. A lot of these players aren't even good. Take a look at the micro stakes regs threads. A lot of it is the same people year after year convinced that it's only a matter of time before they move up and start crushing. They have leaks and are too stubborn to examine their game honestly and continue to pay one coach or another convinced that this is their break. But even these people, the delusional gamer types who aren't very good at poker, are very likely not losing money pre rake. What Tim and I are saying is that twitch is going to create more people with that mentality than people with a gamble mentality who will deposit money to just have a good time.

I mean, it's really a combination of all of them. Poker would still be heading in the same direction without Black Friday, but it certainly sped things up as you take a lot of the rec players out of the game. We'd still be in a similar situation without Black Friday, but probably a few more years down the road.

Oh yeah I never said BF was a good thing for the games but like there are a lot of people who are implying the games were awesome and easy and then suddenly on April 15, 2011 they went to **** and that's just not factually accurate at all.

Couldn't disagree more if we had a regulated market with commercials, marketing, advertising,....etc. Who knows how big it could be. You cant turn on ESPN without hearing something about draftkings, fanduel, etc. If poker had that sort of reach it would be huge but people that are ignorant to the game think it is seedy and shady and that will never change without regulation. Too many people justify morality with laws.

It is though.

200nl on FTP died that day. No american bad regs and fishes to make more than 4 tables run(everyday we had 16-25 GOOD tables running)

I wasnt on any other site during that exact time so i cant comment on the other ones.

I did ocassionally a couple of years ago at stakes i wasnt 100% comfortable and in retrospect im not very proud of that behaviour.
If stars would allow camping at this point i wouldnt bc i think it would outway shortterm benefits in teh longrun.
Apart from that i wouldnt have teh possibilty to camp anyways with teh amount of tables and my stacking setup.

[spoiler]kind rgds from teh TimStone[/spoiler]

I was beating rush for 6bb at 100-400 when black friday happened and was likely not one of the best players in the pool. Its just a small amount of circumstantial evidence but that kinda seems to be what everyone is going off of with their arguments so whatever.

Plot twist: OP is teh nail in teh coffin.

People keep saying nobody deposits 5-2k online and plays mid stakes anymore, which is true, but TONS of people deposit $10-100 online, a lot of them play MTTs, and some of them even win since MTTs are basically lotteries over a small sample and once that happens they think they are awesome and go straight to NL400+.