Quote:
Originally Posted by botsonparty
how to lose 100k at mtts
also drinking a can of soda while on a diet
Are you sure this is really that bad?
I can only see the snapshot you've posted but this looks like early in a super knockout and a SBB v BB clash at perhaps 35bb deep or so. It looks a little odd with the SB having a bounty of $225, this seems a double bounty but the player only has about the starting stack of chips, 5k in these.
Ok let's just say it is the very worst case and the SB has us beat atm and so never ever folds. In this worst case scenario the SB could have something like:
All over pairs QQ+
All sets T,J, and 4
All AJ to QJ, top pair hands
All 2 pair hands JT, J4, T4
I could throw in all KQ's for the top end of the hoped for straight, doesn't matter very much.
I could also throw in a few higher club suited cards it also doesn't matter much, I'll just add the AcTc as this also starts out with a higher pair.
So that range is (TT+,44,AJs,AcTc,KJs+,QJs,JTs,J4s,T4s,AJo,KJo+,QJo ,JTo,J4o,T4o)
JS has 9c8c
According to Pokerstove this 9c8c hand has 32.4% equity against that range.
If JS never gets any folds at all it works out it is the same as if JS called a SB full shove so...
Final pot = 400 + (4583 * 2) + 856 = 10422
To break even in this case JS needs the amount risked/final pot = (4583+400)/10422 = 47% equity
Oops, JS only has 32.4% against this incredible strong range - ah but wait a minute this looks like a super knockout so there is more to it - worth reading this
http://www.tournamentpokeredge.com/s...ment-strategy/
So it seems JS could stack this other player and the KO bounty is worth at least a starting stack, 5000 chips in this case, (possibly double this as it seems to be $225, but I settle for a single stack) so the calculation for break even becomes:
(4583+400)/(10422+5000) = 4983/15422 = 32.3%
Wow, that comes out at just about exactly break even even when just a single bounty. Now break even isn't much to write home about but wait a mo I forgot, earlier I tried to find just about the very worst possible set of hands to put this SB (in this SB v BB clash) on (I wish I always hit the flop that well as the SB
), basically all sets, 2pairs, top pair etc and I doubt if that is really a fair range to use. It is actually possible that the SB could sometimes fold a few hands and any of these folds push some profit into the JS move.
I am no expert on knockout tournaments but I suspect this is not catastrophically bad, thanks for bring it to our attention though.
Last edited by BaseMetal2; 12-01-2016 at 11:07 PM.