Quote:
Originally Posted by thebestpokerplayer
How do you call off your stack and get busted 4 hands into a 5k main with JJ? Be Jaime Staples I guess.
Great first post on the new account - an attempt to be cruel won't endear you to the poker community and in the long run may reduce the help you are given in the future.
The Malta JJ hand seems like a bit of a cooler really, it isn't an incredibly bad mistake. It is not the 4th hand from the start of the tournament but 4th played in the 4th level by a late starting J.S.
https://br.pokernews.com/tours/ept/2...hips.44148.htm
Cliffs, I think it is pretty close, break even to slightly positive chip ev, so not a bad play.
It starts 100bb deep, Jaime utg raises to 2.33b with JJ. Eugene calls from utg+1 and this starts a call cascade, 4 more call and then the BB shoves for a squeeze looking 17bbs.
As Eugene Katchalov is rather good it is extra difficult to get a narrow range on the initial call, he could easily have about a 10 to 15% range including AA. Some hands like TT, JJ(v unlikely), and QQ would have to be discounted slightly as these would get often 3-bet. If there are a couple of aggro shorter stacks, like the BB, then Eugene could easily cold call with QQ and KK hoping for a later squeeze so they can't be discounted too heavily, also some AQ or AK would also be sometimes willing to hope for a squeeze.
Just before the BB squeeze the pot is 1.5bb + (2.33 * 4) + (1.5 in antes) = 12.32 (or 11.82 if SB in)
The BB pushes and so the pot is then 17.5 + 12.32 = 29.82, and it is about 16 to call.
The BB could be moderately weak, say 77+, AT+
It is a tricky choice at the Jaime call point, a re-raise is too large might as well be allin and a fold seems too weak with JJ. A call seems about best to me - Jaime would look strong, possibly holding AA, also it gives a faint possibility of a later allin followed by another call, allowing an easier Jaime fold (as very likely a later slow played monster hand present).
When Eugene goes allin (effectively) he could easily have AA, slightly less likely QQ or KK. These, with the AA, are three value holdings and there is also some possibility of AK or even AQs, these are more like drawing hands.
Eugene can and often would balance his holding and so you could easily expect perhaps 1.5 times as many bluff hands to balance the value ones. Does he balance here? Does he only have pure value hands? My vote would go for some balance here.
So E.G 'shoves' and gives J.S an approx break even Hand Equity of:
Break-Even HE = 82/(100 +100 + 18.5 + 12) = 82/230 = 36.5%
It is very difficult to calculate this three way spot, with the smaller BB pot so I tried out the hand in CardrunersEV.
If E.G pushes just JJ+,AK the J.S call is negative 872 chips, or 2.9bbs.
(With E.G. on AA,99-66,AJs-A7s,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,AJo-A9o,KQo,[80]KK-TT,AKs-AQs,AKo-AQo[/80] as initial call and the push range of AA-JJ,AKs,AKo nb, the AK and KK-QQ hands are still discounted to 80% at the shove point)
This is a really narrow range for E.G and I would expect a more balanced range, if I add AQs to the E.G. shove range I get +215 chips.
Perhaps the AK hands would not often flat the utg raise but some hands above just QQ are needed. It is in fact pretty hard to come up with accurate ranges for very good, tricky players but with just very few extra hands ,here just the AQs the call becomes positive. I would expect a few more really so my vote goes for this being +ve chip EV wise - but there is plenty of scope for error. You could say that you need to account for some edge but I wouldn't give much as even if I did have a very decent overall expected edge allowing a very good player on your immediate left to push you off a big pot is very dangerous as you then have to play really carefully for the next few orbits and you have lost a lot of power to a powerfully stacked good player, an uncomfortable position.
Last edited by BaseMetal2; 11-01-2016 at 11:26 AM.