i think theres merit for the guy’s postflop play being very +ev assuming there is softplaying between them. reason is if he jams river it looks stronger, and he might assume she would snap fold overpairs.

although james obst thinking it was clear cut is damning.

Foxen is usually super splashy though, he would have jammed vs anybody else

Prices moved never got into ETH to short

I believe in the tech, I'm no priest, but I just feel I have run good to even be typing this response . . .


Everyone complaining about someone doing what they want , go fix it, and do what You want that's it . . .

Not a coincidence Bitcoin dumps on the Mt. Gox news of course, but unlike a lot of bad news that's just used to explain away deliberate shocks in the price, this is an actual problem for people who are still long this **** for some reason. Because unlike bull**** news like India bans crypto!, the news of another 100K+ Bitcoin about to enter the market actually threatens market manipulation. If there really is a Bitcoin cartel (and there obviously is), every single one of those coins represents a liability equal to the spot price of Bitcoin. You can throw up fake buy walls all day long if you know there's not even enough Bitcoin in circulation to eat through it, but you can't do that if a bunch of people who bought Bitcoin at $300 or less are eager to unload their bags on you.

This is an extremely bad time to long crypto. A $4000 Bitcoin represents a $400M+ expense for a price fixing cartel. There's no way anyone will throw that much money at it. And the funny thing is that even if you want to pretend the price of crypto is an organic, real market then the price of all the new Bitcoin hasn't been rationally priced in to match historical patterns from the earlier sell offs. They'll probably do bull**** honeypot rallies along the way, but by the end of the year Bitcoin will be sub-4K, probably substantially lower.

What do you mean when you say "liability" ? For what, against whom, to whom ?

You think there is some central backer or asset pool ?

(This is not Tether, you realize ?)

I wonder if he means liability as in when they are released the value of currently held Bitcoin will lower as the value of all of them together is spread out equally which is basically inflation. That's what I'm assuming.

Maybe he means their value is threatened if the market is manipulated in the way they sell off of the new coins.

Maybe he means something other than a liability. Words have meaning, especially in the context of his remark about a "cartel",.... or maybe he was throwing out jargon ?

Ffs, the whole concept of a decentralized currency is that there is NO ONE backing the value and taking on a liability for even the spot price at any given moment, aside from open spot traders at that moment. (Futures are a different subject.*)

The decentralized market sets the price, transaction by transaction, with no claim on particular assets or actors guarantees, credits or backing.

(*If some cartel or trading group or international illuminati conspiracy has some agreements among themselves, there may be some inside promises and liabilities among that group.Who knows, maybe some folks think the b symbol on every beats headset sold really means bitcoin or Beyonce ?)

You act like it's unexpected or far fetched to thing that a scarce, deflationary resource in an unregulated market would be hoarded. Or that a single actor, or small group working with each other, couldn't have enough resources to essentially buy out the overwhelming majority of circulating Bitcoin when it was $1K or less. Bitcoin isn't decentralized. Mining costs are extremely prohibitive and required huge economies of scale to operate profitably. And that was before network difficulty more than doubled. If Bitcoin is decentralized, then so are cable companies and airlines.

If a group that hoarded Bitcoin wants to artificially inflate the price, then anyone who holds out for selling in between the then-current price and the "target" price would represent a liability from the standpoint of the hoarder. Even if you have to pay $7K for a Bitcoin knowing the price will be $15K, that's still a substantial loss. Why? Because the whole point of a price hoarding strategy is that you only sell a fraction of your hoarded supply. You can't just jack the price up and then unload your supply because of liquidity issues, particularly when you're selling something that has practically no fundamental value. But if you jack the price of Bitcoin up 1000%, even if you never touch 85% of your supply, you still profit substantially even without consideration to manipulation on the short/futures market.

If this all sounds so far fetched, then I guess De Beers is part of the illuminati, because this is almost exactly what happened with the diamond market.

None of this matters though. Even if you don't believe that this happened, and that's it somehow more realistic that an organic decentralized market swings the price of Bitcoin $500-$1K in 10 minute intervals and does nothing in between (the price of Bitcoin went up $400 in the time I spent typing this), the Mt. Gox Bitcoin is still a huge change in the amount of effectively circulating supply. 100K+ Bitcoin is a gigantic amount in an illiquid market driven entirely by speculation. That's just supply and demand, demand (speculation) is dropping as burned bagholders become immunized to the Bitcoin narrative, and supply is increasing because a huge amount is being thawed from the ice and placed into the hands of people who paid $300 or less.

What about that sounds like an investing opportunity to you? That's the real point here, it's fairly terrible news for people longing Bitcoin even if they're naive enough to not realize what's going on. However, unlike most other FUD, this is disastrous for the price in a "hypothetical" manipulated market too, unless the "hypothetical" cartel is willing to cough up $400M+ to pay off Mt. Gox creditors (they won't), the price will drop.

Doug has the talent and skills to be successful in whatever he decides to do. How about starting a Sports Betting channel? That would be super fun!!

As much as I admire Doug in an all around sense, the stand up comedy and the non poker/non crypto YouTube video content just doesn't work.

The main reason for this is that he is a big fish (traditional meaning, not the poker meaning) in a small pond in poker and crypto, but a small fish in a big pond in comedy and in general subject commentary/content creation.

Yeah, the only time his comedy has really worked is when he's trolling Crypto/poker people, that's his wheelhouse. I assume because he's well informed on these topics (obviously poker) and a lot of what he says seems like off the cuff, smart, biting stuff. The writing jokes part seems to be very eh, which I assume would be where the biggest emphasis is with the mainstream news channel.

I think it's likely Doug has confused people thinking his trolling videos are really funny with him generally being really funny, which doesn't really seem to be the case imo. I admire the effort, but he should stick to gambling/crypto (as if there's a difference ha) world imo. The sports betting channel someone mentioned seems like a good idea.

He's certainly got some learning to do. Spending 5 minutes telling the audience what star wars is when everybody watching the video will already know what star wars is was a bit odd.

Does anyone not know that the original trilogy was considered great and the prequels were not? If they hadn't seen any of the movies why would they be watching the video?

I for one like the main channel
And it's like his Standup - will get better with every try
It's already light years ahead of any startup youtube news comedy channel

Okay, it seems clear that you use "liability" as a code word for possible price exposure from holding a class of assets, when "liability" means something very different in my experience. But, let's move on.

With respect to your price drop fear/prediction, however termed, basically, you predict hoarders are gonna stop hoarding and won't add to their stash from this 100K BTC going back into the market form MtGox ? You do not think that your hypothetical cartel, whoever you think they are, would already be well represented among MtGox creditors ?

I also don't get the "thawed from ice" scenario, please explain. Is that a reference to MtGox creditors' claims being liquidated in BTC ? Are you saying there has been no interim market in those claims ? https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/06/24/m...yment-process/

(I've been watching BTC for about 6 years, coincidentally attending the first Bitcoin Foundation conference, within a week of the Mt.gox seizure. I have some idea about economics and finance, still have never tried to predict price,and even less marginal swings in price, but think decentralized payment systems are really valuable, even if just active in the spot markets.)

You think Chris Rock or Louis CK were good at stand up the moment they started doing it? No, they were dog sh-t. Doug will get better at it for sure. It takes time.

Lebron probably wasn't great at BBall before touching a basketball either, but he was a huge freak show athlete so it wasnt shocking he turned out to be great. I'd wager Louis CK and chris rock were off the charts funny people before trying standup, Doug isn't.

I don't know about Rock, but I've seen old footage of CK standup and he was surprisingly awful.

Did you know Louis or Chris personally before they tried standup? Do you know Doug personally?

EDIT: lol for some reason I thought you were replying to me. I'll leave the Louis CK video though.

That might have been an amazing stand up back in the 80s.

Just my impressions after watching lots of Dougs content, most of which I really like. I think I answered this about Louis CK and Chris rock with the "I'd wager" part of my previous post.

I agree. That video seemed kinda odd to me (I thought his other video on just news was good). It was like he was just reading the wikipedia article on the Star Wars franchise.

Stand up comedy has to be the most difficult thing to do successfully. Entertaining a crowd full of different people with different personalities night after night, when most of their lives suck and they're miserable, all the while coming up with new content must be insanely difficult.

To me, comedy is like Hollywood now. All the movies/stuff have been done before, nothing comes out of Hollywood now except for crappy super hero movies and rehashed garbage we've already seen at least a dozen times. You have to be a genius to come up with new, fresh material.

Irrelevant - you are correct it's not money technically owed by anyone to anyone, but it's the cost you have to pay if you want to play these pricing games.

I'm sure that they had a sizeable chunk of that. That's why I said 100K, when the amount being returned can be up to 140K. That might still be a pessimistic estimate

This is easier said than done. But even if you're right that there will be substantial sale of frozen Bitcoin in between now and February, if this was rationally priced in, the effect would have been felt already whether there was an interim market or not.

The fact that Bitcoin didn't drop more is actually more evidence of price manipulation. The Bitcoin cartel can tank the price over the course of the next year however they feel like. The interim market is irrelevant. If I agree to buy your frozen Bitcoin today for $5000, I still can't take it to an exchange and sell it anywhere until February. That means they don't have to buy it until then, OTC trades don't matter at all.

Maybe you should try. Honestly part of the problem is that even people with a business education have been conditioned to believe that price movements are unpredictable, which makes sense in rational, regulated markets where mispricing is quickly identified and corrected. It's much less true in the crypto clown fiesta. I not only predicted the Bitcoin inflection point, I predicted it exactly a day before it happened.

It’s not that hard to get laughs... there’re tons of decent comics out there. Most of them just never make any real money from it and give up. Doug isn’t aggressively unfunny but his delivery is kind of grating and the content is overproduced / comes off as too try hard.