Quote:
Originally Posted by PTLou
Anyone that believes they can forecast movement of a crypto over short or long term with anything other then pure guess is delusional.
There is simply no framework for analysis. Fact.
Even in the equity markets with very good data and time proven framework for analysis. very few and I mean very analysts are right over any meaningful sample. most cant outperform un-managed index funds. Fact.
Bitcoin on CBOE provides some rudimentary data on market sentiment, but again forecasters of crypto prices are simply pulling stuff out of their arse. Fact.
Long-term, meaningful, and predictable value will be created by investing in companies that use the new blockchain technology (and future iterations) to solve business problems/create new services, not by speculating in the coin du jour. Opinion.
best post in the thread. i've been tapped to be the lead quant/PM for a new fund of cryptocurrencies and in conducting extensive research the above succinctly conveys the conclusions i've come to as well.
that said, there ARE a number of interesting and potentially valid ways to go about valuing cryptocurrencies both in published research and in the market if you know where to look.
but until the market gets more robust in a number of ways, it's still the wild west and you shouldn't invest money you're not 100% willing to lose. that said, building a 5-10k portfolio of 5-10 coins priced low with business-case justified uses for the blockchain that solve problems is a great way to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency revolution without an insane amount of risk and for a massive potential gain