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Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

04-09-2015 , 09:34 PM
When Doyle came out with his book Super System a lot pros bitched that it would cost them, counterintuitively it was good for the game, same thing happen when hold-card cameras were used on TV.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-09-2015 , 09:45 PM
if you can't put in the work to keep one step ahead of the very few players who might read a book about strategy or watch a stream then maybe you should go play something else because if twitch does attract players then you who have been playing since the mid 2000s should have at least 5+ years on them.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-09-2015 , 09:54 PM
The problem with the whole 'it's going to introduce bad regs' defence is that at most stakes it's very very tough to beat bad regs post-rake. It's just making the reg:fish ratio worse. With that said, streamers who are awful and win like StickyRice are clearly great for poker.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-09-2015 , 10:00 PM
Even more so than training sites, twitch is entertainment not instruction. Playing poker at a high level is a difficult skill that takes years of dedication to develop, not a collection of simple secrets that need to be carefully guarded by the few who currently possess them. The sky isn't falling. Relax.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-09-2015 , 10:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ike
Even more so than training sites, twitch is entertainment not instruction. Playing poker at a high level is a difficult skill that takes years of dedication to develop, not a collection of simple secrets that need to be carefully guarded by the few who currently possess them. The sky isn't falling. Relax.
HUGE +1 to this
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-09-2015 , 10:11 PM
Exactly. If you don't have the confidence and emotional stability, one little thing at the table could effect your decision for the worse. Doesn't matter what information you may have learned off the tables.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-09-2015 , 10:12 PM
More players = good for poker. Always has been, always will be.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-09-2015 , 11:09 PM
I think you are dramatically over estimating the intelligence of the twitch audience. For every really smart person who is going to have all the attributes needed to become successful in poker there are likely 10 others who will fail miserably.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-09-2015 , 11:24 PM
  1. The legal landscape in the US was always, is always, and will always be the most dominant factor to the change in online poker.
  2. I have first hand knowledge, I have hard data, that proves online poker coaching sites actually help extend the lives of recreational (fish) players (as opposed to the opposite.)
  3. It's my opinion that Twitch will expand the game, and will be only good for the game of online poker in the long run.

Anyone who says that poker coaching is the most damaging factor to online poker is simply naive.

Declaring something illegal via UIGEA, is by FAR the biggest factor and it's not even close. Black Friday, April 15th, 2011, vaporized approximately 10 MILLION players from the US.

10,000,000 players!

I believe the next largest market was the UK for online poker around ~2 million, Germany~1.6m, France ~1.2 at that time. I can only assume w/o the US pool that these markets have extremely shunk as well.

Last edited by Joe Tall; 04-09-2015 at 11:33 PM.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-09-2015 , 11:26 PM
Games got especially harder the past 4-5 years because of multitabling and regulations that stop recreational players play while regs move to another country. Let Spaniards, French, Italian and Americans play and winning rates will go up.

But beyond this, in any industry, competition brings down profit margins. Always and everywhere. It's not fun for incumbents, but that's the way it is.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-09-2015 , 11:27 PM
Amen, but we're too late pal. Even if a nationwide player base went in to effect its gone....legislation took way too long and there are powerful people fighting it. If it ever happens there will be much more exploitable ways to make money.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-09-2015 , 11:29 PM
I agree with Joe Tall, pokers best chance at surviving as a popular game is introducing the game to people and showing them skill aspect of the game to keep them interested to learn and grow as a player.

People seem to have no idea on this forum, about the different percentage of humans' learning ability and time it takes for some individuals.

Only thing holding back growth is America not in it with the rest of the world.
Also the DOJ scared a lot of people by raiding online poker on Black Friday and who knows what some average joe thinks about it.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-09-2015 , 11:35 PM
God, I hope every kid in America watches Jason Sommerville play on twitch and immediately tries to adopt his style. They'll get crushed. You need to have a deep understanding of what you are doing to play like that and they're not getting that on his stream.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-09-2015 , 11:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimStone
Was planning to write something for a while now but didn't found time or energy so far but since i'm reading twitch twitch twitch everywhere these days here we go. Also english is not my mother tongue so excuse eventual mistakes i make but in this post i will abstain from my trademark "teh" and similar stuff.

I started with onlinepoker mid 2000s and played recreational in the beginning and started to play for a living in 2009 after i quit my job. I've seen alot over the years and i pretty much always played the same stakes with NL200 fullring as my main game. Of the folks i played with in 2010 there are maybe 10% still around. The rest is gone. Apart from the exceptions which moved up and still stayed there 80+% are not playing for a living anymore because it was not possible for them anymore.

Over the years games got tougher and tougher up to a point where you really shake your head if you think about some years back. The average NL100 game these days is for sure tougher and filled with better players compared to a NL1k game in 2010.

The biggest damage in this whole development was probably due to pokerstrategy.com. I remember in 2010 if you had a russian at the table he was a maniac and loaded with money. Today you have 5 russians at every table who are agressive and in many spots close to GTO and not easily to exploit. Thanks for developing the russian market, pokerstrategy!

Smaller damages were/are done by several coaching sites even though their influence is neglicible compared to ps because for them you actually have to pay and don't get money and lessons for free which get you started. They still were and are a strong contributor to what games currently are.

Other factor like blackfriday and ringfencing several countries weren't good for poker either but by far not as bad as the two points above.

Now we write 2015. While in 2010 when somebody asked me i told him to quit his job and start play for a living today i tell him to stay as far away as possible. Things have changed abit.

If you look into several forums here the tone gets more and more agressive towards each other because more and more people cannot make a living out of this game anymore.

If you speak to other regs you hear alot of complaints that games are too tough, the rake is to high, there are less games running etc.

And now at this absolute lowpoint in over 15years of onlinepoker we get TWITCH.
And we celebrate it like the best thing that ever happend to poker!
In every podcast i hear how good twitch is for poker. That another boom is coming. That everything is getting better from now on.

But i tell you what. There is no new boom. And things will get tougher. Alot tougher. Tough to a point that alot of those people who are reading this will not be able to play for a living in one or two years from now.

Lets break down this awesome site called twitch for a moment. Wich brings in new players like nothing else:

So all you streamers target an audience which, apart from people who already playing poker more or less serious, consists of very young, probably 15-30y/o males, with in most cases pretty much zero disposable money (unless they have rich parents) who enjoy computer games and most likely spend the majority of their free time in front of a screen and you teach them that you can make alot of money by playing poker, what hands to play, how to play them, how to approach mindset issues, how to build a bankroll, where to watch strategy videos, etc.

Now i ask you guys what could possibly go wrong?

I don't see another boom, all i see is 1000s of new, hungry and highly motivated regulars. And a coffin with a nail in it.


So please all you podcasts, newswriters, players, etc. - before you communicate how awesome twitch is the next time please turn on your brain and think for a couple seconds. Twitch is by far the worst thing that ever happend to poker for anybody who is currently playing for a living - ainec.


tl;dr
- sky is falling
- game over soon
- twitch doesnt get a single recreational player playing any sort of meaningful stakes with a 45/15
- twitch will produce 1000s of regulars grinding up from the micros to however far they manage to come
I've always thought u were just some troll who sits on the 200NL tables, but u make good points =)
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-10-2015 , 12:00 AM
Have you ever sat in JCarver's stream and read the chat, and looked at the hand histories that people post for him to look at? Try playing in some of the homegame tournies that he runs, too, to see the general skill level of his viewers.

I'd really like to know how much money has been deposited on Pokerstars directly due to his stream, and then have you tell me how that's somehow bad for the game.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-10-2015 , 12:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Tall
Black Friday, April 15th, 2011, vaporized approximately 10 MILLION players from the US.

10,000,000 players!
Based on the woeful levels of player retention in the industry, around 7.5million of those people would have stopped playing by 2012 anyway. It's the inability to add new American customers that's a bigger problem.
But AmayaStars seems to be doing OK. They gained about two million R.o.W. sign-ups last year, and now claim to have 91,000,000 account holders. Twitch might help them reach 100 million, whether the US can play or not.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-10-2015 , 12:44 AM
Interesting post Tim, I think I agree with the sentiment if not everything, I think a lot of SS and MS+ guys will often overlook how the micro stakes landscape will trickle up to affect them.

Spoiler:
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-10-2015 , 01:10 AM
someone can explain how people make money with twitch ? it is all about donation or the content is monetized with ads like youtube ?

cuz if it is only by donation, I cant see how people can make more than 12$ in a year... Is any people who like to donate 20$ for watching a youtube video ?
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-10-2015 , 01:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DirkkDiggler
someone can explain how people make money with twitch ? it is all about donation or the content is monetized with ads like youtube ?

cuz if it is only by donation, I cant see how people can make more than 12$ in a year... Is any people who like to donate 20$ for watching a youtube video ?
I know of youtuber's making over 2k a month just in donations.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-10-2015 , 01:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimStone
Was planning to write something for a while now but didn't found time or energy so far but since i'm reading twitch twitch twitch everywhere these days here we go. Also english is not my mother tongue so excuse eventual mistakes i make but in this post i will abstain from my trademark "teh" and similar stuff.

I started with onlinepoker mid 2000s and played recreational in the beginning and started to play for a living in 2009 after i quit my job. I've seen alot over the years and i pretty much always played the same stakes with NL200 fullring as my main game. Of the folks i played with in 2010 there are maybe 10% still around. The rest is gone. Apart from the exceptions which moved up and still stayed there 80+% are not playing for a living anymore because it was not possible for them anymore.

Over the years games got tougher and tougher up to a point where you really shake your head if you think about some years back. The average NL100 game these days is for sure tougher and filled with better players compared to a NL1k game in 2010.

The biggest damage in this whole development was probably due to pokerstrategy.com. I remember in 2010 if you had a russian at the table he was a maniac and loaded with money. Today you have 5 russians at every table who are agressive and in many spots close to GTO and not easily to exploit. Thanks for developing the russian market, pokerstrategy!

Smaller damages were/are done by several coaching sites even though their influence is neglicible compared to ps because for them you actually have to pay and don't get money and lessons for free which get you started. They still were and are a strong contributor to what games currently are.

Other factor like blackfriday and ringfencing several countries weren't good for poker either but by far not as bad as the two points above.

Now we write 2015. While in 2010 when somebody asked me i told him to quit his job and start play for a living today i tell him to stay as far away as possible. Things have changed abit.

If you look into several forums here the tone gets more and more agressive towards each other because more and more people cannot make a living out of this game anymore.

If you speak to other regs you hear alot of complaints that games are too tough, the rake is to high, there are less games running etc.

And now at this absolute lowpoint in over 15years of onlinepoker we get TWITCH.
And we celebrate it like the best thing that ever happend to poker!
In every podcast i hear how good twitch is for poker. That another boom is coming. That everything is getting better from now on.

But i tell you what. There is no new boom. And things will get tougher. Alot tougher. Tough to a point that alot of those people who are reading this will not be able to play for a living in one or two years from now.

Lets break down this awesome site called twitch for a moment. Wich brings in new players like nothing else:

So all you streamers target an audience which, apart from people who already playing poker more or less serious, consists of very young, probably 15-30y/o males, with in most cases pretty much zero disposable money (unless they have rich parents) who enjoy computer games and most likely spend the majority of their free time in front of a screen and you teach them that you can make alot of money by playing poker, what hands to play, how to play them, how to approach mindset issues, how to build a bankroll, where to watch strategy videos, etc.

Now i ask you guys what could possibly go wrong?

I don't see another boom, all i see is 1000s of new, hungry and highly motivated regulars. And a coffin with a nail in it.


So please all you podcasts, newswriters, players, etc. - before you communicate how awesome twitch is the next time please turn on your brain and think for a couple seconds. Twitch is by far the worst thing that ever happend to poker for anybody who is currently playing for a living - ainec.


tl;dr
- sky is falling
- game over soon
- twitch doesnt get a single recreational player playing any sort of meaningful stakes with a 45/15
- twitch will produce 1000s of regulars grinding up from the micros to however far they manage to come
great poast, but IMO it's like 5 percent . it's an accomplishment if you are able to tread water these days.

on a side note, cardrunners should make a moving down the stakes series to celebrate their 10th anniversary.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-10-2015 , 01:37 AM
Threads like this make me laugh. All these cry baby regs gurning like little biatches cause new people might come into the game with some experience, and maybe beat them lol

You think someone watching a few streams is so unfair and you feel this threatens your future as a poker player??

So seating scripts and HUD's are fine?? It's ok for regs to use all the software they can to give them an advantage, but a rec watches a video or two and you sh@t your pants

Well I hope they ban the use of software, and all the 'twitch newbs' come and kick your ass
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-10-2015 , 01:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Tall
  1. The legal landscape in the US was always, is always, and will always be the most dominant factor to the change in online poker.
  2. I have first hand knowledge, I have hard data, that proves online poker coaching sites actually help extend the lives of recreational (fish) players (as opposed to the opposite.)
  3. It's my opinion that Twitch will expand the game, and will be only good for the game of online poker in the long run.

Anyone who says that poker coaching is the most damaging factor to online poker is simply naive.

Declaring something illegal via UIGEA, is by FAR the biggest factor and it's not even close. Black Friday, April 15th, 2011, vaporized approximately 10 MILLION players from the US.

10,000,000 players!

I believe the next largest market was the UK for online poker around ~2 million, Germany~1.6m, France ~1.2 at that time. I can only assume w/o the US pool that these markets have extremely shunk as well.
can you post this? cuz all i see these days is seat scripting permeating down to 50nl
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-10-2015 , 01:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by knerrad29
I watch a few streams and I'm still pretty crap

I also watch Gordon Ramsay, Heston Blumenthal and Masterchef yet have no Michelin stars and still struggle to chop a ****ing onion
Well said.
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-10-2015 , 02:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ike
Even more so than training sites, twitch is entertainment not instruction. Playing poker at a high level is a difficult skill that takes years of dedication to develop, not a collection of simple secrets that need to be carefully guarded by the few who currently possess them. The sky isn't falling. Relax.
the sky already has fallen for ~90 percent of regs since 2010 (agree with OPs assessment). obviously the games will never be "dead", but there's something to be said about wanting to keep your place, especially when threatened by something as frivolous as snitch, which honestly seems like a reverse freeroll considering poker isnt even legal in the US.

and while playing poker on a high (absolute) level taking years to develop is definitely a good thing, the fact that it's more and more necessary to reach that point is a bad thing, and sort of implies the notion that the sky, indeed, is falling (for a lot of people)
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote
04-10-2015 , 02:10 AM
cool rant, games would also be much better if all teh timstones stopped script seating as well. its pretty obvious you have not progressed with the game and have been surpassed by the new regs who have came through, not everyone needs to rely on teh seating software to make money.

glgl when the new stars changes come in
Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin Quote

      
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