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Old 04-09-2015, 04:25 PM   #1
TimStone
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Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

Was planning to write something for a while now but didn't found time or energy so far but since i'm reading twitch twitch twitch everywhere these days here we go. Also english is not my mother tongue so excuse eventual mistakes i make but in this post i will abstain from my trademark "teh" and similar stuff.

I started with onlinepoker mid 2000s and played recreational in the beginning and started to play for a living in 2009 after i quit my job. I've seen alot over the years and i pretty much always played the same stakes with NL200 fullring as my main game. Of the folks i played with in 2010 there are maybe 10% still around. The rest is gone. Apart from the exceptions which moved up and still stayed there 80+% are not playing for a living anymore because it was not possible for them anymore.

Over the years games got tougher and tougher up to a point where you really shake your head if you think about some years back. The average NL100 game these days is for sure tougher and filled with better players compared to a NL1k game in 2010.

The biggest damage in this whole development was probably due to pokerstrategy.com. I remember in 2010 if you had a russian at the table he was a maniac and loaded with money. Today you have 5 russians at every table who are agressive and in many spots close to GTO and not easily to exploit. Thanks for developing the russian market, pokerstrategy!

Smaller damages were/are done by several coaching sites even though their influence is neglicible compared to ps because for them you actually have to pay and don't get money and lessons for free which get you started. They still were and are a strong contributor to what games currently are.

Other factor like blackfriday and ringfencing several countries weren't good for poker either but by far not as bad as the two points above.

Now we write 2015. While in 2010 when somebody asked me i told him to quit his job and start play for a living today i tell him to stay as far away as possible. Things have changed abit.

If you look into several forums here the tone gets more and more agressive towards each other because more and more people cannot make a living out of this game anymore.

If you speak to other regs you hear alot of complaints that games are too tough, the rake is to high, there are less games running etc.

And now at this absolute lowpoint in over 15years of onlinepoker we get TWITCH.
And we celebrate it like the best thing that ever happend to poker!
In every podcast i hear how good twitch is for poker. That another boom is coming. That everything is getting better from now on.

But i tell you what. There is no new boom. And things will get tougher. Alot tougher. Tough to a point that alot of those people who are reading this will not be able to play for a living in one or two years from now.

Lets break down this awesome site called twitch for a moment. Wich brings in new players like nothing else:

So all you streamers target an audience which, apart from people who already playing poker more or less serious, consists of very young, probably 15-30y/o males, with in most cases pretty much zero disposable money (unless they have rich parents) who enjoy computer games and most likely spend the majority of their free time in front of a screen and you teach them that you can make alot of money by playing poker, what hands to play, how to play them, how to approach mindset issues, how to build a bankroll, where to watch strategy videos, etc.

Now i ask you guys what could possibly go wrong?

I don't see another boom, all i see is 1000s of new, hungry and highly motivated regulars. And a coffin with a nail in it.


So please all you podcasts, newswriters, players, etc. - before you communicate how awesome twitch is the next time please turn on your brain and think for a couple seconds. Twitch is by far the worst thing that ever happend to poker for anybody who is currently playing for a living - ainec.


tl;dr
- sky is falling
- game over soon
- twitch doesnt get a single recreational player playing any sort of meaningful stakes with a 45/15
- twitch will produce 1000s of regulars grinding up from the micros to however far they manage to come

Last edited by TimStone; 04-09-2015 at 04:30 PM.
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Old 04-09-2015, 04:30 PM   #2
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

+1
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Old 04-09-2015, 04:39 PM   #3
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

Tapping the glass was once treated like slow rolling.

Everyone wants to be a star.
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Old 04-09-2015, 04:39 PM   #4
AKingdom
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

Well said, and I totally agree with you. As opposed to recs learning about on-line poker via a banner ad where they need to figure things out themselves, they now can find out about it on Twitch, except that on Twitch they're being told about all the tools they need to become good even down to the thought process. And it's all free. Not good.
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Old 04-09-2015, 04:39 PM   #5
Registrationtoo
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

Welcome to life

If you can print money, people will try to join you

Happened in the gold rush days, happens when new companies come up with products, happens in all sectors. Happens in computer games, business, everything. People improve.

Could be time to muck your cards n get a real job
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Old 04-09-2015, 04:40 PM   #6
comesandgoes
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

I think Twitch can be good if it's presented the right way.

I shake my head when people are giving away deep/good strat for attention, though.
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Old 04-09-2015, 04:45 PM   #7
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

Please make up your mind.

Either being a grinder and making some money from poker is too hard OR there will be a whole new bunch of sharks taking you on and beating you/making it break even.

It can't really be both. The vast majority of those encouraged to try the game will start out bad, some will improve and become a threat but most will either carry on playing and donating or quit after they find they are not winning.

Anything that encourages new players is good for the game and for grinders. It s a bit churlish to leap to how some of them might learn to play well as the "worst hing ever" for poker.
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Old 04-09-2015, 04:45 PM   #8
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

Things progress and the games are so tough for some people that they play at negative win rate for twitch donations instead of rake back.
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Old 04-09-2015, 04:47 PM   #9
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

Great post. Agree 100% but, I think whats killed online poker completely is HUDS!

What would happen if all sites stopped giving out HH's in txt format (basically untranslatable to softwares) ????

Level playing field. Players will have to play poker and think. = More chances of others winning aswell as the pro's = more signing up
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Old 04-09-2015, 04:49 PM   #10
Free99
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

Get better, play new games, or gtfo though because none of it is going away. Books, training sites, huds, twitch, its all here to stay so sink or swim. You don't gotta like it but that's how it is.
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:14 PM   #11
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

I think it could possibly go either way. Retention is a big thing, watching Jcarver make some loose plays is actually amazing for the game because most beginners won't really know when to replicate it and will just be doing it all the time/wrong times. Obviously it will make some good players, but that is how poker has always been. I think it has a greater chance to bring more bad players to the game than good ones, and especially elite ones. I think streamers should be careful about what products they recommend though.
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:20 PM   #12
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

Seat scripting bum hunter doesn't like tough games?

I'm shocked.
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:24 PM   #13
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

You are assuming that those dudes are sitting there and concentrating and thinking about hands. They are watching poker because they find it entertaining, does not mean they will be any good at the game.

There are a lot of very high level League of Legends and StarCraft streamers on Twitch, most of their audience consists of bad low level players.

Twitch will bring new recs and new regs to the tables. No need to freak out.
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:26 PM   #14
Cash Chaos
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

The tragedy is it won't even increase the pool that much. But whoever is already in would just become more shark-like.
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:29 PM   #15
WugMarkup
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

If theyre learning from the majority of twitch regs we have nothing to be worried about.
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:30 PM   #16
bluffers
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

This is horrible in the long run only making the noose tighter.

of course other regs will continue to win, there will always be variance in poker. and of course you will have the guy who is a master and has the bankroll to sustain the swings.

But look at the community has a whole and who is moving up through the stakes these days?

The player pool is drying up more and more each year and twitch is going to be terrible in the long run.

I Think it's going to bring an increase of players, but at what stakes and for how long will they continue to donate is the question? And after the acclamation period of these tech guys trying out poker what will you have?

Keep in mind people trying to play poker to make money coming from computers don't just keep donating and they don't start out at mid stakes either.

I've seen it in capitalism where if the system can sustain the growth in competitive factors great but the minute you cap the growth bad things happen....your left a new system that's even tougher because the good ones aren't going to leave, but the losers will eventually.

Thus making a more competitively elevated system.

Last edited by bluffers; 04-09-2015 at 05:38 PM.
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:32 PM   #17
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

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Originally Posted by Waari42 View Post
You are assuming that those dudes are sitting there and concentrating and thinking about hands. They are watching poker because they find it entertaining, does not mean they will be any good at the game.

There are a lot of very high level League of Legends and StarCraft streamers on Twitch, most of their audience consists of bad low level players.

Twitch will bring new recs and new regs to the tables. No need to freak out.
No. What it will do will make newbies be like 'wow, wtf is all this stats hes talking about? vpips, cbets?/?? Then he will learn that HUDS are essential, then he will be like 'coaching sites for poker? really zomg cool, 2+2? Then of course get great insights into 4betting light, floating flop and turns etc etc etc
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:34 PM   #18
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
Seat scripting bum hunter doesn't like tough games?

I'm shocked.
This. Seriously Tim it's absurd that you are the one to start a thread like this.
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:35 PM   #19
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

Quote:
Originally Posted by TimStone View Post
...with in most cases pretty much zero disposable money (unless they have rich parents...
Describing video games as having "zero disposable money" is absurd. A simple google search for the size of the video gaming industry values it at around $100billion.
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:37 PM   #20
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

Long term Twitch might be bad, short term it's probably good.

Also, watching hours of streaming doesn't necessarily translate into being good at poker. You still have to try. Yeah, it gives new watchers the knowledge to know what tools to use but they still have to apply those tools.

If you watch some of the streams with a lot less viewers you'll see there are a lot of bad players out there streaming too.
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:38 PM   #21
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

Poker needs new & fun players, barricading the doors to everyone because they "May" become good is a ridiculous statement to make.

Yes these new players will become decent over time with the tools out there but as with the first "poker boom" there will be alot of dead money as they find there feet. 98% of streamers are giving nothing more than abc strat away.

So sick of every 2+2 thread forecasting the imminent death of poker. Poker is dying because there are no new players bringing easy money, anything that brings new players to the pool is a good thing
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:38 PM   #22
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

...For what it's worth, I watch Jason Somerville's twitch from time to time. People send him some boom players hands and ask JS how they played the hand, and some of them are played terribly. A decent amount of bluffs that are just never going to work, and crying river calls with little showdown value etc etc.

Additional note: Also on his twitch, he has plenty of people registering for pokerstars accounts and using his deposit codes to make first-time deposits. these are new players. No matter how much "learning" they do by watching streams, they are still gonna be learning via trial and error when they play, imo

Last edited by sam1chips; 04-09-2015 at 05:45 PM.
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:46 PM   #23
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

You are assuming the viewers are individuals who actually take poker seriously..some do..but I would take the bet that the majority do not.
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:46 PM   #24
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Waari42 View Post
There are a lot of very high level League of Legends and StarCraft streamers on Twitch, most of their audience consists of bad low level players.

Twitch will bring new recs and new regs to the tables. No need to freak out.

This.

Watching a pro presenting arguments, explaining thought process and making decisions based on that does not automatically make you better at the game. You have to put way more effort than that just to be break even these days.
When i watch jcarver explaining a sick hand i understand him like a book, but when i get to my tables I'm very often like - well, ****, I have no idea what to do in this spot.
Most of the people will not know how to use all that information streamers are putting out there, and that's the key thing here.

The same thing is with league, hundreds of thousands people are watching top ranked players crush every day, and yet 88% of the viewers are below platinum (in poker terms one could argue its below 25nl). I just took the general ranking statistic, probably is close enough to be put in an argument.

Last edited by zobenfeja; 04-09-2015 at 05:58 PM.
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Old 04-09-2015, 05:50 PM   #25
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Re: Twitch - this gonna be the nail in the coffin

you're assuming these hungry new player are going to be good right off the get go. poker takes time to get good at just like any profession. You can read every book, see every video but you still have to learn through playing. you can't skip novice mistakes unless you make them yourself.

new players = good for poker.

money added to the poker economy = awesome.
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