This is a thread where micro-decisions can be analyzed.

I wrote in a thread a few days ago about how edges can be fairly small - difference between a very good and a great player or a mediocre vs slightly better player, and so on. But everyone makes mistakes, and often the mistakes that people make aren't clear-cut.

Here's the 1st one.



What's the best play? It's really tough! Our opponent just played Shredder, so we'll have 4 mana. We didn't draw anything relevant (fire elemental).`

Maybe I am being dumb but I think dropping a totem and just going face with all three minions is not just best but best by a good margin. If he whacks the chow and drops a non taunt it did it's job and we can trade the spider or 1 in 4 the 1/1 totem. If we get the shield totem we are well ahead going into 5 letting us decide to drop the belcher and go face again or clean up what is left of his shredder.

Our worst five is he zips the chow and drops belcher. We are still solidly ahead able to clear the first half of the belcher and drop our own, or reevaluate if we draw another option (the silent hit for one spell is a perfect five drop to zip his shredder after it zips the zombie).

Our alt play is to take out shredder with chow and spider, then try and clean up the rattled drop. Not bad but I think this is a great spot to apply further leverage and let him trade into the chow chasing the five heal. You're gambling he doesn't drop belcher, which isn't all that terrible for us on five anyway as we quickly respond and stay ahead.

What is in this shaman deck, I find it hard to answer this type of question w/o the decklist. There is a belcher so that isn't super normal, but not weird either. Is this a slower reincarnate deck or just normal and has a belcher or 2 thrown in?

Sometimes in spots like this I like to just burn the hex and keep pressure and keep paladin on the back foot (you still have 1 and 2 ES for sylvannas and Tirion which aren't for 2/4 turns at most). This is better if you have Dong Hammer and can put out some easy burst. It keeps the 4/5 out of truesilver range, it doesn't let him get a decent consecrate off so it has a lot of good things going for it. With the midrange/control shaman lists I run I find the longer the game goes the worse it is for Shaman. They can recover a lot of ground with T8 Muster/Quarter that if they aren't low enough to burst down soon after will be a struggle to win.

i think hex is a perfectly fine tempo play

next turn he probably plays belcher or maybe aldor+dude, and we have very nice 5-6-7 follow ups. i think the fire ele is relevant because of that, we wouldnt reasonably play the hex until 8 anyway

^it's a control/midrange shaman. Belcher is pretty standard. Look up Loyan shaman. The mechyeti is a little different, I suspect there's double powermace.

I clear the first half with chow and spider and clean up with yeti.

I save hex because shaman-paly matches go long enough that you're going to need it for tirion or sylvanas.

Going face is a nightmare if he plays a belcher or a loatheb and you're never going to rush the guy down.

Loyan moves things in an out, but belcher is out more than in in his lists (though I did see him running one yesterday).

Axtius/Navioot and the main NA Shaman's almost never run blecher. It's just hard to fit in often with the Drakes and usually Loatheb.

The yeti is definitely weirder though.

yeah I'm using the yeti because I've only been playing for a few days on NA and don't have all the cards there yet. I don't have neptulon or alakir in this deck so my lategame is pretty meh. also only have 1 lightning storm .

I agree on the fire elemental being very relevant because I curve out very well the following turns

Will read through the comments and respond, but:

You basically have 1 of 2 immediate options. You can hex, or pass your turn by making a totem.

if you opt not to hex, you have some varying combat decisions, all of which are partially tricky.

We both thought the best play was to hex. Yes, the relative value of a hex is that it "should" be used as an answer to Tirion or Sylvannas, but given there was no alternative play, it keeps Hero's board intact without having to sacrifice too much to do so.

I'm not saying hex is best though. It could be. It might not be.

If I don't hex and I decide to trade I gambol that the minion will have 2 health and Hit with 4/5 first with intent to kill will chow and keep my creeper un-popped. I think you need to be a little risky in this matchup. I don' t know the odds but the majority of the dudes have 2 health or less except for some 2/3's and doomsayer. Mostly it is 3/2's so the 1 health vs 2 health only matters for musterd weapon. I think it is worth it to prevent any easy board clear with consecrate. But even then you still have the initiative since he can't do anything else.

If I rolled Taunt totem maybe going face better.

I think hex is right too though especially know that I know he doesn't even have Al'akir for more late game. People that don't play lots of shaman tend be too conservative in hex usage and I am sure lose games they could have otherwise won because of it. Sometimes you have to keep the tempo and hex something that isn't some crazy dude like Sylv or Tirion. Hexing now is going to make Boom on 7 way easier to have a huge impact.

Totem

zombie + creeper into shredder

Use Yeti to face or reserve it to take out anything dangerous coming out of Shredder.

Sets up nicely for Belcher next turn.

Hex looks best, next turn is turn 5 for the pally so he won't have the board wipe combo (he may have the pyro combo) and he won't be able to truesilver anything good, id hex take it out with the creeper then face, I can't think of any cards that would change it other than earthshock?

I hex.

I don't think its close. Its the best for tempo and its also card advantage since you deny him the free random minion. Spending your 4th turn hero-powering and nothing more is a tempo-disaster and I'm willing to sacrifice the hex on a non-premium target to avoid that.

Hero is going to into turn four next (ie the one he can hex or not)

Shaman typically will have 2x earth shock and 1x hex left plus maybe another silence to deal with Tirion or Sylvannas and we are reasonably likely to draw into one of these, plus with the other removal we have we can possibly trade into Sylvannas/use spells.

que?

I understand now, I read your post wrong.

this.
if this list how ever only plays one hex and for what ever reason a earthshock was allready used to kill of a shielded minibot or what ever i think you have to keep the hex and go for a totem. if its a taunt totem propably go face after a different totem propably clean up would by my instinctive answer to the question without thinking about it too deeply.

I would always play hex here but maybe that is why I never made it past rank 3. I do assume you have another hex in your deck.

Here's the second one. A lot of people make this mistake. Even pretty good players. Do we:
-Play BGH, leave shade stealthed?
-Play BGH, uncork Shade... to face? To kill Juggler?
-Wrath the Juggler, leave stealthed?
-Wrath Juggler, attack face?
-Hero power face, clear knife with shade?
-Hero power pass?
-Hero power the knife?

Hero power face, clear knife with shade

why?

i dont like a fancy pants play here.
just wrath that thing.
i think going face with shade after is good.
it seems like the hunter still has coin so technicly he could go webspinner kill command to remove it but he seems to have allready played on of them so i am willing to take that risk.

oh and i think these days you want to save big game hunter against hunter.
dropping a big game hunter on 3 so it contest every animal companion used to be great but since they started running boom and ragnaros i think you should be worried about those.

wrath and hit face seems best by so much that Ive thought more about what I could be missing. any list with webspinner is also playing boom

And a decent amount Rag too.

I think I'm with you on this one cause only Huffer could be bad to reveal the shade, but hey at least it wouldn't be 4 to the face.

I'm certainly not a fan of leaving a juggler up.

I think playing the BGH is better by a bit. You have a natural curve, so play to it. You have keeper which wants to be played on 4 for the free juggler kill.

The BGH if left alone also contests all animal companions.

My inclination is wrath as well for reasons already stated. If this was a face hunter, I would consider BGH. But BGH has a ton of value in the late game vs midrange hunter, especially for druid.