2015 Blizzcon thread
11-07-2015
, 10:31 PM
11-07-2015
, 10:36 PM
Quote:
yes its the highest level of play and it was the most played matchup in the last months before the nerf so its impossible to get more than that.
Nobody ran worgen and stuff like that at the pro level so its pretty irrelevant.
I'm willing to look at any other evidence and admit I'm wrong if I am, if anyone has better stats that points toward patron beating druid. But apparently that's not the case.
Anecdotes and "feelings" are completely irrelevant. I feel like my opponents have more aces in poker than I do. There's this idea that druid is terrible against patron just cause swipe cant clear patrons, it's not the case.
Nobody ran worgen and stuff like that at the pro level so its pretty irrelevant.
I'm willing to look at any other evidence and admit I'm wrong if I am, if anyone has better stats that points toward patron beating druid. But apparently that's not the case.
Anecdotes and "feelings" are completely irrelevant. I feel like my opponents have more aces in poker than I do. There's this idea that druid is terrible against patron just cause swipe cant clear patrons, it's not the case.
Quote:
its the closest to a reliable stat we have, yeah there's maybe two or three or ten games of sub-optimal patron at first but that matchup was played a ton while patron was very strong.
If there's anything better anywhere let's see the evidence.
Im not saying its actually 60% but im definitely saying its 49%+++
people who came in here saying it wasnt a flip (as in patron was 60%+ is why ive been arguing).
There is no way druid could go 60% over 119 games if their real winrate was below 45%. Id wager a lot that the true winrate is between 48-54%
If there's anything better anywhere let's see the evidence.
Im not saying its actually 60% but im definitely saying its 49%+++
people who came in here saying it wasnt a flip (as in patron was 60%+ is why ive been arguing).
There is no way druid could go 60% over 119 games if their real winrate was below 45%. Id wager a lot that the true winrate is between 48-54%
11-07-2015
, 10:38 PM
Spoiler:
11-07-2015
, 10:42 PM
yes, you're correct 1% of the time that the 45% is lucky enough to get 60% out of 119 games.
i guess ill take the 99% chance that I was right and misleadingly accept it as 100
.
i guess ill take the 99% chance that I was right and misleadingly accept it as 100
.
11-07-2015
, 10:46 PM
11-07-2015
, 10:48 PM
my friend's doing the math on the likely hood of patron being 55%+ while going 40% win over 119 sampled games 
*
so he ran 100 000 simulations and the odds are 0,05% that the druids were 45% or worse during that 119 games sample.
do you still think the 0,05% is relevant?
*
so he ran 100 000 simulations and the odds are 0,05% that the druids were 45% or worse during that 119 games sample.
do you still think the 0,05% is relevant?
Last edited by Kirbynator; 11-07-2015 at 11:02 PM.
11-07-2015
, 11:03 PM
11-07-2015
, 11:06 PM
Quote:
my friend's doing the math on the likely hood of patron being 55%+ while going 40% win over 119 sampled games
*
so he ran 100 000 simulations and the odds are 0,05% that the druids were 45% or worse during that 119 games sample.
do you still think the 0,05% is relevant?
*
so he ran 100 000 simulations and the odds are 0,05% that the druids were 45% or worse during that 119 games sample.
do you still think the 0,05% is relevant?
11-07-2015
, 11:11 PM
11-08-2015
, 12:16 AM
11-08-2015
, 01:07 PM