Quote:
Originally Posted by DrStrange
Preflop - Hero ends up in multi-way action with QTo. ~$90 in the pot, SPR a bit less than four.
The preflop call looks misguided. Hero tried to steal the blinds + straddle. It didn't work. Maybe Hero will be lucky. Or the villains will be weak.
Hero get's lucky on the flop in that no one bet. Jack-high rainbow boards might have induced a c-bet. It isn't as though the table is playing GTO. I wonder what Hero does vs a normal sized c-bet on the flop?
Hero faces a 2/3 pot bet from V1 with a draw and likely needing to hit that draw to win the pot.
Hero has something like 18% equity with ~$220 left behind and $210 in the pot < if Hero calls>.
Hero needs to be highly confident that villain will stack off to make the call pay off. Hero can't profitably deal with a turned flush draw, in that it kills two of his outs and Hero isn't planning on winning any other way than making his draw.
The risk is too high for the reward. The implied odds are doubtful, especially if Hero rivers an ace for Broadway.
The preflop blind steal was fine. The subsequent call was a mistake. Calling the turn bet is a mistake. Not that Hero can't get lucky - but let's be clear that is what Hero is planning to do.
Thanks a lot for this detailed analysis. We will have to add a few words in order to defend our actions.
We are aware that we should fold preflop, however V2 is 3betting way too much. He uses many suited one gappers and two gappers, some 56o, some 55 and some A2o. In our oppinion, we counter that strategy by 4betting more and calling with more hands or simply put by not folding especially when we are in position.
Concerning the action on the turn, our thought process was the following: First of all, we believe that V1 is very value heavy, meaning that there should not be too many flushdraws in his range. The preflop action further reduces his flushdraws. If that is true, flushdraws should not be too much of an issue.
Then second of all, we disagree with the view on the implied odds: We have to call 59$ to potentially win 95$+59$+279$ = 433$. Lets assume that we have an 18.18% chance of winning the hand. In that case we need to win x amount of $ with x*pw - 59$*(1-pw) = 0 or x = 59$*(1-pw)/pw = 266$ when facing a 59$ bet (pw = 18.18%). This means out of the 279$ left on the river we need to win 266$-59$-95$ = 112$ or in other words we need to stack V1 at least 40% of the time. Given the history with this player, we assume this number to be higher, possibly around 75%.
Lastly if all of the above is true, the EV of our call would be EV = -59$*(1-pw) + pw*(59$+95$+112$*75/40) = 18$. Conversely, if our opponent check-folds everytime we make our hand on the river, our EV would be EV = -59$*(1-pw) + pw*(59$+95$+112$*0/40) = -20$.
We would be happy, if you commented these thoughts one more time.
Thanks in advance...
