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September 2013 Open Thread September 2013 Open Thread

09-18-2013 , 03:38 PM
I fall on the side of Shove in this situation. He folded AT to a shove earlier, so your thinking that he's going to fold a naked ace here is fairly spot on. I agree with the viewpoint that he's shoving any flop if you check to him, so unless you're willing to just torch off 1/6 of your stack here pair mining, you should go ahead and put it all in to remove that bluff possibility. Yes, if you lose, you'd be the short stack, but you also wouldn't be out yet.

For me, it's an easy shove to put him to the test knowing in most cases you're going to be at worst a 3:2 dog in this situation in most cases.
09-18-2013 , 03:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mariettabull
I fall on the side of Shove in this situation. He folded AT to a shove earlier, so your thinking that he's going to fold a naked ace here is fairly spot on. I agree with the viewpoint that he's shoving any flop if you check to him, so unless you're willing to just torch off 1/6 of your stack here pair mining, you should go ahead and put it all in to remove that bluff possibility. Yes, if you lose, you'd be the short stack, but you also wouldn't be out yet.

For me, it's an easy shove to put him to the test knowing in most cases you're going to be at worst a 3:2 dog in this situation in most cases.
Any thoughts on a Stop-and-Go? Perfect situation imo.
09-18-2013 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mariettabull
I fall on the side of Shove in this situation. He folded AT to a shove earlier, so your thinking that he's going to fold a naked ace here is fairly spot on.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmendr1ck
BTN (10bb):On the bubble when stacks were a little deeper and I had him covered, he raise/folded ATo to my shove.
Different situation. If BTN is raise-folding anything in this spot that's pretty bad, but if he does so with a hand as strong as a "naked ace" that would be LOL bad.
09-18-2013 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Precept2
Any thoughts on a Stop-and-Go? Perfect situation imo.
Not a bad idea, but I still think just shoving pre is the way to go.
09-19-2013 , 08:19 AM
Will he raise any SCs? I like a S&G, but I feel when we're called, we're usually either a flip or a huge dog.

Unrelated... if the standard raise in this game is still 3x, try raising less when you open. Even 2BB plus one chip can accomplish the same thing and get you the same information, while saving you chips and allowing you to play deeper. In tournaments you have to do a lot more will less, and raising less allows it. 3x is a very outdated mentality.
09-19-2013 , 10:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Precept2
Any thoughts on a Stop-and-Go? Perfect situation imo.
A stop and go would potentially work here, but what do you do if an Ace hits the flop? Do you still shove at this point when you put a lot of his range to include A/x? I'd rather go with putting him to the test pre-flop rather than have to deal with a post flop question mark. Sure, it's only 3 potential outs to dodge on the flop to go with the post-flop shove, but I'd rather get it all in pre.
09-19-2013 , 03:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mariettabull
A stop and go would potentially work here, but what do you do if an Ace hits the flop? Do you still shove at this point when you put a lot of his range to include A/x? I'd rather go with putting him to the test pre-flop rather than have to deal with a post flop question mark. Sure, it's only 3 potential outs to dodge on the flop to go with the post-flop shove, but I'd rather get it all in pre.
I ran some numbers on this, and against the raising and shove-calling ranges that I'm assigning Villain, it's pretty close but leans slightly fold > shove.

However, I'm liking the stop and go option here. Villain's range is full of Ax hands, and he calls Hero's preflop shove with a lot of those hands. However, I think he folds most of those Ax hands (maybe even AK/AQ) if he misses the flop and Hero donk-shoves.

So I'm currently thinking stop-n-go > fold > shove >>>>>>>>> call, but it's really close between folding and shoving. It comes down to what Villain will do preflop with small aces, and I don't have a great read there. I think he often folds, but with 1/3 of his stack already in the middle, he may feel committed with any ace (or any raising hand that isn't a pure button steal).

Last edited by Schmendr1ck; 09-19-2013 at 03:29 PM.
09-19-2013 , 03:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pfapfap
Will he raise any SCs? I like a S&G, but I feel when we're called, we're usually either a flip or a huge dog.
When deeper, yes. But once the stacks are this shallow, Villain understands that SCs lose a lot of their value and generally stays away from them. TBH, if he raises SCs here, it's as a button steal, and he will almost certainly let it go if shoved over.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pfapfap
Unrelated... if the standard raise in this game is still 3x, try raising less when you open. Even 2BB plus one chip can accomplish the same thing and get you the same information, while saving you chips and allowing you to play deeper. In tournaments you have to do a lot more will less, and raising less allows it. 3x is a very outdated mentality.
The 3x raise is very specific to this one villain. He raises 3x consistently through the tourney.

Most of the rest of us are in the 2x-2.5x neighborhood once the blinds get big. Early on, though, the game tends to be loose-passive, so preflop raises are often in the 3-5x range to chase out the junk calls. It doesn't always work.

Last edited by Schmendr1ck; 09-19-2013 at 03:32 PM.
09-19-2013 , 03:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmendr1ck
I ran some numbers on this, and against the raising and shove-calling ranges that I'm assigning Villain, it's pretty close but leans slightly fold > shove.

However, I'm liking the stop and go option here. Villain's range is full of Ax hands, and he calls Hero's preflop shove with a lot of those hands. However, I think he folds most of those Ax hands (maybe even AK/AQ) if he misses the flop and Hero donk-shoves.

So I'm currently thinking stop-n-go > fold > shove >>>>>>>>> call, but it's really close between folding and shoving. It comes down to what Villain will do preflop with small aces, and I don't have a great read there. I think he often folds, but with 1/3 of his stack already in the middle, he may feel committed with any ace (or any raising hand that isn't a pure button steal).
Given the likelihood of an ace in this spot, I like this strategy as well. While our fold equity is best preflop, KQ is so vulnerable to an ace. A pre-flop shove needs a good chance of getting a bad ace to fold.
09-19-2013 , 04:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmendr1ck
So I'm currently thinking stop-n-go > fold > shove >>>>>>>>> call, but it's really close between folding and shoving.
This just blows my mind. Folding should never, EVER, be an option here. If you are folding a hand as strong as KQ in this spot, BTN should be shoving 100% of his hands against you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by eneely
Given the likelihood of an ace in this spot, I like this strategy as well. While our fold equity is best preflop, KQ is so vulnerable to an ace. A pre-flop shove needs a good chance of getting a bad ace to fold.
If this guy is so bad that he'll raise to 3BB when he only has 10BB and then fold an ace (or any hand for that matter), then shoving is 100% the correct play here. There are tons of hands BTN could have here that don't include an Ace, and even on the times that he does we're only a 40-60 dog to Ax.
09-19-2013 , 04:46 PM
It's not in my Arsenal to fold kq here even with short stacks. Given that we are 3 handed and its likely a flip or close to it, im shoving every time to put pressure on. If we lose the hand we still have a comparable stack to the field. I just cant find a fold here.
09-19-2013 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by avaholic
This just blows my mind. Folding should never, EVER, be an option here. If you are folding a hand as strong as KQ in this spot, BTN should be shoving 100% of his hands against you.
Will BTN know this, and react accordingly? It sounds like he does not adjust well.

Quote:

If this guy is so bad that he'll raise to 3BB when he only has 10BB and then fold an ace (or any hand for that matter), then shoving is 100% the correct play here. There are tons of hands BTN could have here that don't include an Ace, and even on the times that he does we're only a 40-60 dog to Ax.
I am not sure he will, is my concern. Against this player, I like to think that I'll get better than 40-60 against the majority of hands. I'm not sure we are in the majority here. There are a lot of aces we are playing against.

I agree, if he will fold the ace, then shove away. If that is still Schmend's prediction, it is not really a debate. But I've seen plenty of players like this fold an ace, then feel they have to call with an ace three hands later.
09-19-2013 , 06:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eneely
Will BTN know this, and react accordingly? It sounds like he does not adjust well.
Apparently neither do we if anyone could actually say they would fold KQ with only 40BBs in play and down to 3 handed...

Quote:
Originally Posted by eneely
I am not sure he will, is my concern.
You're not sure he will what? Fold? I'm not expecting him to fold and if he does I'm laughing loudly inside at what a horrible play that is. That doesn't change the fact that KQ is way stronger than we need to shove here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by eneely
Against this player, I like to think that I'll get better than 40-60 against the majority of hands. I'm not sure we are in the majority here. There are a lot of aces we are playing against.

I agree, if he will fold the ace, then shove away.
I'm not sure I get what you are trying to say. Sounds like it's the old "wait for a better spot" approach. You are 3 handed, with 40 total BBs in play. Just how patient are you wanting to be to find your majority?

I really don't get the debate here. This is such a super straight forward shove spot.
09-19-2013 , 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by avaholic
This just blows my mind. Folding should never, EVER, be an option here. If you are folding a hand as strong as KQ in this spot, BTN should be shoving 100% of his hands against you.
But the point is that he's not adjusting. As I said earlier, button is too tight short-handed; he raise-folded AT to my push on the bubble just a few hands ago. The majority of his range is Ax and pocket pairs, all of which my KQ is behind. Any part of his range that I might be ahead of (e.g. KJ), this guy is probably laying down to my shove.

I'm putting Villain's opening range somewhere in this ballpark: any ace, any pair, big kings, and an occasional button steal. Against that range, my "strong" KQ is a 44% dog. And I'm a worse dog if he calls, since the hands he's most likely to fold are smaller kings and bluffs. Strength is relative, and in this case, KQ is fairly weak against BTN's perceived range.

Quote:
Originally Posted by avaholic
If this guy is so bad that he'll raise to 3BB when he only has 10BB and then fold an ace (or any hand for that matter), then shoving is 100% the correct play here.
This I agree with, and it is by far the best argument for the shove. There is a chance that BTN may lay down a small ace, and that additional fold equity could make me a favorite. That's why I think folding and shoving are so damned close in this particular situation.
09-20-2013 , 10:43 AM
Nah man, I hear ya.

Last week I was playing a local tournament and we were also 3 handed. Tight Wad Isacc Tupulololo had the button and raised it up. Good thing I was paying attention because I noticed that when TWIT raised he used his left hand to toss some chips out. Not only that, but I also noticed some small twitching in his right eye. You see, TWIT didn't notice I caught this because he wears glasses because he heard that was the cool thing to do in poker but doesn't realize that we can still see his eyes through his yellow frames. Add to that the fact that he gently tugged at his right ear with his right hand, let a little drool come out of his mouth, and it could only mean one thing. A perceived range of AA, KK, or AK suited, but not AK off cause TWIT never tugs his ear when his big slick is not suited so at least I could confidently rule out that hand.

Like any home game superstar, I diligently waited for the action to come to me before checking my cards so I could get some super sick, epic, reads on my fellow compadres. (It is because of me that oreos are no longer allowed at the weekly tournament). To my chagrin, I look down and see that I have picked up the two black queens. I have never liked the two black queens because that hand reminds me of the Jackson twins that I had such a big crush on in high school, but who would not give me the time of day. You see, in high school, I was 5'2", and weighed about 390 and those stunning beauties could not see past my physical exterior to the inner beauty that I possessed. Too bad for them I caught my growth spurt, played some Wii Fit, and blossomed into a striking 6'1" 217 lb man.

But I digress. I ponder my options for a few moments and slightly curse my luck at now picking up the two black queens that always eluded me at Richmond High (so looking forward to the 15 year reunion next year...). Why not the red queens, or a red and black one? Oh well, such is the life on the home game circuit. I quickly do some calculations in my head, and realize that I am almost certainly a 27.71% dog to his range of 72.29%, give or take .02%. While most players would almost certainly shove had they been in my seat, I have watched the Phil Hellmuth "White Magic" segments on ESPN and combined that with the lessons I learned from G.I. Joe that knowing is half the battle and confidently found a fold. Just to show off my chops and strike some fear into my opponents about what sick folds I can make, I flip over my two black ladies and say, "I'm sure you have it TWIT. I fold. White Magic!"

To my dismay, TWIT re-Hellmuthed me, flipped over two Jacks and promptly shouted "I can dodge bullets baby! I was so scared that you would figure out I was bluffing!" I was never able to recover, ended up blinding myself down to 4BBs and a few hands later had to finally take a chance and gambol it up with A8 off suit. Of course, Ball Buster Betty woke up with the AT, and my night promptly ended in third. On the ride home, my buddy who was with me said, "you should've played those queens Mike."
09-20-2013 , 11:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmendr1ck
But the point is that he's not adjusting. As I said earlier, button is too tight short-handed; he raise-folded AT to my push on the bubble just a few hands ago. The majority of his range is Ax and pocket pairs, all of which my KQ is behind. Any part of his range that I might be ahead of (e.g. KJ), this guy is probably laying down to my shove.

I'm putting Villain's opening range somewhere in this ballpark: any ace, any pair, big kings, and an occasional button steal. Against that range, my "strong" KQ is a 44% dog. And I'm a worse dog if he calls, since the hands he's most likely to fold are smaller kings and bluffs. Strength is relative, and in this case, KQ is fairly weak against BTN's perceived range.
It sounds like you agree with me. He folded the AT earlier, but will he do it again? He might be more suspicious of being pushed around.

I am probably going to shove KQ here most of the time, but I am not going to like it that much.
09-20-2013 , 12:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by avaholic
Nah man, I hear ya.

Last week I was playing a local tournament and we were also 3 handed. Tight Wad Isacc Tupulololo had the button and raised it up. Good thing I was paying attention because I noticed that when TWIT raised he used his left hand to toss some chips out. Not only that, but I also noticed some small twitching in his right eye. You see, TWIT didn't notice I caught this because he wears glasses because he heard that was the cool thing to do in poker but doesn't realize that we can still see his eyes through his yellow frames. Add to that the fact that he gently tugged at his right ear with his right hand, let a little drool come out of his mouth, and it could only mean one thing. A perceived range of AA, KK, or AK suited, but not AK off cause TWIT never tugs his ear when his big slick is not suited so at least I could confidently rule out that hand.

Like any home game superstar, I diligently waited for the action to come to me before checking my cards so I could get some super sick, epic, reads on my fellow compadres. (It is because of me that oreos are no longer allowed at the weekly tournament). To my chagrin, I look down and see that I have picked up the two black queens. I have never liked the two black queens because that hand reminds me of the Jackson twins that I had such a big crush on in high school, but who would not give me the time of day. You see, in high school, I was 5'2", and weighed about 390 and those stunning beauties could not see past my physical exterior to the inner beauty that I possessed. Too bad for them I caught my growth spurt, played some Wii Fit, and blossomed into a striking 6'1" 217 lb man.

But I digress. I ponder my options for a few moments and slightly curse my luck at now picking up the two black queens that always eluded me at Richmond High (so looking forward to the 15 year reunion next year...). Why not the red queens, or a red and black one? Oh well, such is the life on the home game circuit. I quickly do some calculations in my head, and realize that I am almost certainly a 27.71% dog to his range of 72.29%, give or take .02%. While most players would almost certainly shove had they been in my seat, I have watched the Phil Hellmuth "White Magic" segments on ESPN and combined that with the lessons I learned from G.I. Joe that knowing is half the battle and confidently found a fold. Just to show off my chops and strike some fear into my opponents about what sick folds I can make, I flip over my two black ladies and say, "I'm sure you have it TWIT. I fold. White Magic!"

To my dismay, TWIT re-Hellmuthed me, flipped over two Jacks and promptly shouted "I can dodge bullets baby! I was so scared that you would figure out I was bluffing!" I was never able to recover, ended up blinding myself down to 4BBs and a few hands later had to finally take a chance and gambol it up with A8 off suit. Of course, Ball Buster Betty woke up with the AT, and my night promptly ended in third. On the ride home, my buddy who was with me said, "you should've played those queens Mike."
Amusement factor: ♣♣♣♣♧
Useful poker advice: ♣♧♧♧♧
Brevity: ♣♣♧♧♧
Subtly insulting me for being too nitty: ♣♣♧♧♧

Average score: ♣♣♧♧♧. C'mon bud, you can do better.
09-20-2013 , 12:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmendr1ck
Amusement factor: ♣♣♣♣♧
Useful poker advice: ♣♧♧♧♧
Brevity: ♣♣♧♧♧
Subtly insulting me for being too nitty: ♣♣♧♧♧

Average score: ♣♣♧♧♧. C'mon bud, you can do better.
5 stars
09-20-2013 , 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eneely
I am probably going to shove KQ here most of the time, but I am not going to like it that much.
This was exactly what happened. I shoved, but I knew I was a slight dog against most of his raising hands and didn't have a lot of fold equity, so I didn't feel great about it.

I wish I had thought about a stop-n-go at the time. Generally when stacks are this short, calling is awful. But I think if he misses the flop, this specific villain folds A-high and maybe even underpairs to a donk shove often enough to make it a reasonable option.
09-20-2013 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmendr1ck
Amusement factor: ♣♣♣♣♧
Useful poker advice: ♣♧♧♧♧
Brevity: ♣♣♧♧♧
Subtly insulting me for being too nitty: ♣♣♧♧♧

Average score: ♣♣♧♧♧. C'mon bud, you can do better.
Wrong sir that was gold. 5* all around.

I have 20 hours of poker to look forward to this weekend. Playing at abby's tonight and all day at my place tomorrow. Should be a lot of fun and I'm hoping no misdeal madness like 2 weeks ago. Ship the Rungoot for both days!
09-20-2013 , 01:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jzpiano
Wrong sir that was gold. 5* all around.

I have 20 hours of poker to look forward to this weekend. Playing at abby's tonight and all day at my place tomorrow. Should be a lot of fun and I'm hoping no misdeal madness like 2 weeks ago. Ship the Rungoot for both days!
Shipped in your general direction, but you and abby will have to fight over the helm of said ship.
09-20-2013 , 02:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by avaholic
Nah man, I hear ya.

Last week I was playing a local tournament and we were also 3 handed. Tight Wad Isacc Tupulololo had the button and raised it up. Good thing I was paying attention because I noticed that when TWIT raised he used his left hand to toss some chips out. Not only that, but I also noticed some small twitching in his right eye. You see, TWIT didn't notice I caught this because he wears glasses because he heard that was the cool thing to do in poker but doesn't realize that we can still see his eyes through his yellow frames. Add to that the fact that he gently tugged at his right ear with his right hand, let a little drool come out of his mouth, and it could only mean one thing. A perceived range of AA, KK, or AK suited, but not AK off cause TWIT never tugs his ear when his big slick is not suited so at least I could confidently rule out that hand.

Like any home game superstar, I diligently waited for the action to come to me before checking my cards so I could get some super sick, epic, reads on my fellow compadres. (It is because of me that oreos are no longer allowed at the weekly tournament). To my chagrin, I look down and see that I have picked up the two black queens. I have never liked the two black queens because that hand reminds me of the Jackson twins that I had such a big crush on in high school, but who would not give me the time of day. You see, in high school, I was 5'2", and weighed about 390 and those stunning beauties could not see past my physical exterior to the inner beauty that I possessed. Too bad for them I caught my growth spurt, played some Wii Fit, and blossomed into a striking 6'1" 217 lb man.

But I digress. I ponder my options for a few moments and slightly curse my luck at now picking up the two black queens that always eluded me at Richmond High (so looking forward to the 15 year reunion next year...). Why not the red queens, or a red and black one? Oh well, such is the life on the home game circuit. I quickly do some calculations in my head, and realize that I am almost certainly a 27.71% dog to his range of 72.29%, give or take .02%. While most players would almost certainly shove had they been in my seat, I have watched the Phil Hellmuth "White Magic" segments on ESPN and combined that with the lessons I learned from G.I. Joe that knowing is half the battle and confidently found a fold. Just to show off my chops and strike some fear into my opponents about what sick folds I can make, I flip over my two black ladies and say, "I'm sure you have it TWIT. I fold. White Magic!"

To my dismay, TWIT re-Hellmuthed me, flipped over two Jacks and promptly shouted "I can dodge bullets baby! I was so scared that you would figure out I was bluffing!" I was never able to recover, ended up blinding myself down to 4BBs and a few hands later had to finally take a chance and gambol it up with A8 off suit. Of course, Ball Buster Betty woke up with the AT, and my night promptly ended in third. On the ride home, my buddy who was with me said, "you should've played those queens Mike."
Until this post I really did not think you knew what you were talking about. But now I have a true appreciation of your poker abiliteez. You absolutely could not have known he had JJ. Good play.
09-20-2013 , 08:21 PM
@schmend - just got a car dock for my birthday for my moto phone. Saw yours at HPI and was instantly jealous. The thing is awesome. Now I just need a car ride to try it out... guess I'm going to Maryland live again soon...

Sent from my XT907
09-20-2013 , 09:31 PM
all this strat makes me want to vomit.
09-20-2013 , 11:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Breich
@schmend - just got a car dock for my birthday for my moto phone. Saw yours at HPI and was instantly jealous. The thing is awesome. Now I just need a car ride to try it out... guess I'm going to Maryland live again soon...
My wife said the same thing when she saw it, so I had to buy a second one for travel.

      
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