Ive been playing in a really,really soft home game for 14-15 months. Im probably up 125k. Play once a week for 10-12 hours for last 15 months. My friend who got me into the game says I run like god. I feel I take plenty of beats. Woulnt luck start to even out over 600+ hours? Sorry didn't know where to post this question.Also Im not a good poker player just better than the guys I'm playing with. They're horrible. Don't understand anything, position is over their heads, coupe of them. When does the luck even out?

Luck evens out quickly in a big bet poker game. Limit poker is a wholly different thing - a bad luck run there can last years. Why? Because the attainable win rate in limit poker is small relative to the variance while the attainable win rate in a big bet game is roughly equal to or a bit higher than the variance.

Once a week for fifteen months works out to ~65 sessions or 650 hours. More than enough of a sample size to be 95% sure you are a solid winning player. That isn't enough time to know how big a winner beyond a rough range - which gets wider if you are LAG style and tighter if you are TAG because your variance is different between the styles.

I note that the original post didn't specify the blinds played, the games played or the size of the buy-ins. Hero is averaging just less than $2,000 a session.

If this is a $2/$5 game with a $1,000 buy-in, that is crushing the game - $200 per hour or 40 bb per hour.


If this is a $25/$50 no limit / pot limit game then hero is a modest winner at 4bb per hour. And if this is the case, then Hero is going to need a lot more data to know how he stands. 4bb per hour is "small" relative to the variance of big bet poker.

Grats on your success. I encourage you to make efforts to be good for the game. Plow some of your winnings back into the game - bring in food, buy nice beer or drinks or something similar. It is greatly in your interest to be perceived as a "good guy" and fun to play with.

DrStrange

Might be time to move to MA.... unless it's 25/50


But mostly what DrStrange said. Most probably a winner, but a bit more on stakes, game type and other information required to be sure.


Also BBV -->

This is a pretty high end of the home game stakes level. Is this a raked underground room or just a bunch of friendlies with very deep pockets? As to your "luck" evening out , well certainly it will, likely already has from time to time. Maybe you are just lucky to be a superior players among a group of donators who just don't or won't try to improve. Then again , since poker does and will kick your ass if you play long enough, you might hit a prolonged downswing and lose most or all you have gained. This is not likely in your case , but it certainly remains a possibility that you should be ready to deal with.

Also what Dr Strange said!

Your friend might not be wrong about you running hot. 650 hours, at a home game with (maybe) 20 hands/hour, is less than 15K hands. Statistically speaking, that ain't much.

When online noobs want feedback, they post their stats and the feedback is universally, "15K doesn't tell you much, come back at 60K hands minimum." I know for live players, that is so hard to wrap our heads around, but it's there.

So it's safe to say you're prob better than your V's, and that's great! But how much better, that would need much more data before you could even begin to approximate it with any degree of mathematical certainty.

I should also add--not trying to be negative, just keepin' it real--that unless you keep meticulous records (and that doesn't sound like the case), every poker player God ever created misremembers how much we won and lost. It's just the nature of the beast.

There is a pretty easy way to determine your 95% confidence interval on your winrate, but it requires real records. At 600 hours it will be a pretty wide interval, unless your Standard Deviation is very low. Without records, you can't determine your SDev, so there's no way to know.

Without knowing the blinds, we can't even estimate. I will say that an observed winrate of $192/hr is unsustainably high in any game below $10/20NL, and is very high even for that. I suspect that 1) you're not really up $125k, it just feels like it and, 2) you have been running like god.