I know this is not technically in the right forum, but the home game forum is not as highly frequented and I feel I would get better answers here. I recently discovered a rake free home game in my city where the player pool is fully comprised of players who play at the nearest casino on weekends (2.5 hrs away). The game is sold as the woman who hosts it just has a profound love for the game. She cooks, deals, let's players play on the books. All this in exchange for tips she receives as the dealer. I'm told by experienced winning players that this game has to be some sort of scam, anything in the poker world that's too good to be true is, etc...

The woman appears to be the nicest most innocent person in the world and I was friends with many of the players before I started frequenting the games. My problem is I've seen a few fishy things at the game, culminating in a somewhat unbelievable hand last night. It was the biggest pot I've seen played at the game in 50 hours of play, a 3 way all in where I had 99 on a 955 flop against 56o and JJ for a 1k pot. There's only 1 live Jack left in the deck (another player folded one) and it hits the river.

Now there was a dynamic in this hand, the guy with 56o is a huge calling station and the guy with JJ was tilted and had just gotten bluffed by me, so it's perfectly reasonable for him to stack off there. I also realize it would be incredibly difficult to set up this type of action. However, I'm still incredibly suspicious. Does anyone have any experience with a rakefree home game and what kind of scams would be run in one? The action in this game is great, and if I'm not being cheated it would be a hugely unprofitable decision to stop playing, but my suspicion is too high to ignore at this point.

If I left out any information you deem relevant feel free to ask and I will elaborate.

1. This post will end up getting moved to Home Poker. Don't post things in the wrong subforums for extra visibility. It won't work here.

2. Catching the case jack by the river with two cards to come has a probability of 1 – (41/42)(40/41) ≈ 4.8%. (For simplicity, this ignores the possibility of an additional 9 or 5 hitting, which would shave off a fraction of a percent.)

This situation is unusual but not so unlikely as to be fishy. Detecting a cheat requires a hell of a lot more than one bad beat.

One hand does not show anything unless you saw direct evidence of cheating. Was proper procedure followed? Who shuffled? Did the cards leave view of the table at any time? Did someone other than the dealer cut? Was the cut actually made? Is a cut card being used? Was the stub visible the whole deal? Were you watching the dealer and the deal?

I'm curious. Where did you originally post this?

Meh. (shrug) When someone plays against the odds and wins, the loser takes a "bad beat."

It the odds are 44 to 1 against something, that means it happens about one time in 45. Meh.

Do you think maybe the lady dealt your opponent two jacks, dealt you two nines, made the flop 955 (giving you top full house), and then dealt a jack on the river? Do you think the hostess and your opponent are in collusion?

If the cards were shuffled and cut with a cut card being used, dealing you a flopped full house and your opponent a rivered better full house would require a highly skilled magician. Not impossible, I suppose, but doesn't seem very likely either.

Sure. I have never paid rake in a home game. I have never charged rake in a game held in my house.

Watch carefully. But you haven't presented any evidence of cheating. There always could be cheating, but taking a bad beat is not the same as getting cheated. You just took a bad beat. Happens to us all.

Buzz

Sounds like the "poker Gods" deciding to mess with you and not cheating. Very few rakefree home games are scams BTW. A dealer/host for tips is not likely to do this.

The Big K has some good questions for you to ponder before you settle on some kind of cheating.

It wasn't even that bad, they were all in on the flop. Two cards to come, not one. It was about 1 in 20, and thus not even noteworthy.


@Jimulacrum: minor correction 1 -(40/41)*(39/40)
We only have 41 unknowns as it was stated that somebody folded a Jack and a non-Jack (doesn't matter what the second one was).

Not to mention he was versing TWO players chasing one out with two cards to come. OP's going to lose there 9.8% of the time there, even with a dead jack. So it was more like 1/10.

It sounds like you just took a really bad beat, you didn't describe anything that sounds like cheating.

Yep, you're right, we were only considering the chance of what did happen, the lone jack hitting, which the OP called "somewhat unbelievable". But it wasn't.

I agree with everyone else---seems like a bad beat and little else. If you are truly worried abut cheating, watch the deck. If the dealing procedures aren't good or the decks aren't always visible, then maybe you have something to worry about, but seems unlikely.

The cheating I've seen & heard about at home games has always involved the chips---either shorting the pot with a splash, going south/rat holing, or stealing from the pot.

Good insight. We can very reasonably conclude that someone who would announce he had a jack would definitely say so if he had folded JJ. He didn't say it, so we know a jack and specifically a non-jack are out. I didn't think to consider that. We can probably also reasonably conclude that his other card wasn't a 5 either, or we'd have heard about that too.

I wouldn't include the probability of 56 drawing out in this case because OP is specifically suspicious about the guy with JJ. But yes, you're right about that.

Honestly, OP, there are much, much longer shots that can come in from the flop to the river in hold'em, and even those happen from time to time. This one is hardly noteworthy, never mind indicative of cheating.

If you're suspicious for some other reason, say so. But this hand alone? I wouldn't even call it a shred of evidence.

I've only encountered a couple cheats ever, but they were both card-based cheats. One, I can't account for exactly, and the other one, the guy was caught on video. In both cases, body language and strange behavior were the giveaways.

I suppose people screwing with the chips would be a lot harder to catch, though.

Hmmm, a rake free home game with home cooked meals? I know a game like that - its mine. I host that 40 nights a year. $0.25/$0.50 through $1/$2 - second, fourth and fifth Saturdays plus a once a month floater game. My wife makes all sorts of yummy stuff. No rake, just good times for all. Samples from various games:

Seven layer lasagna


Chicken & biscuits


raisin butter tarts


My wife takes GOOD care of the crowd. It costs about $50-$75 a session, but we are happy to be hosting our friends. People help out by bringing extra stuff to eat and leaving small change behind to help cover costs

Bad luck beats happen every year playing 40 sessions or roughly 5,000 hands a year. I have seen far worse luck than the hand posted in the original post. A one time event that isn't all that shocking is no proof of cheating - the question shouldn't even come up.

Enjoy the game. A rake free home game with a super host is a treasure to be prized not a scam. Pffff - the experienced winning players are idiots.

DrStrange

PS oh - and a horde of vintage casino chips.

In what city do you live? (I want to come to your game).

Agreed.

Buzz

Something like this happens at least once in 50 hours.

Did you expect the thread would be jacked by photos of lasagna?

I don't think it's rigged, but it never hurts to keep your eyes open. I play in a home game with a bunch of calling stations/LAGs and the amount of bad beats on the river is truly mind bending. It's like a bizzarro world where the best hand never holds up!

Also, IMO, any game with a dealer dependent on tips is effectively raked. I have a friend who plays in a home game (non raked) here in LA...stakes are 5/10, 500 buyin. Big wins can easily be 5K+. The general rule of thumb is to tip the dealer (who also organizes the game - he is a personal assistant for an actor) about 10% of winnings. My friend figures the dealer pulls in well over 50K a year from this game.

I'd be much more concerned about security problems and getting paid out, given a for-profit game with a casino-player base and guys playing on credit.

She may be well meaning but that lady is playing a dangerous game, IMO

This is very standard. I'm very curious where the "suspicion" comes from because you don't mention anything in the OP that is suspect.

The real suspicious thing at the game is that the dealer allows players to play on the books in a rake-free game. I have played with my crew for 15 years and would not want that aggravation.

I would like to know who covers "the books" when the cash out comes? Do players leave with an IOU? I can't see the house covering this when all they take in is tips.

From Shade: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctzrxyWIabY