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Old 05-31-2018, 09:43 PM   #1
chipraker999
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Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

In the midst of trying to improve my game this year, I took a look at ways I can improve my winrate, and one obvious way was consider to no longer play splash pots.

I play at $2/$5 NLH raked home games. 10 handed full ring.

In 2017 I played 1053 hours. Profit of $36,815. Hourly $34.96.

Thatís after the $3,500 in tips I calculated. My winrate INCLUDES my splash pot wins/losses. I never kept record of my splash pot stats but I participated in the vast majority of them, so I know my winrate is skewed.

In addition to the rake (up to $10-12 a pot), an extra $2 is collected per pot (pots over $10) for the splash. The splash pot is about every 25 hands (hourly). $50 goes in the center, everyone is dealt 2 cards face down, and each player has the option to play for $10. If they muck their hand, it can be bought by another player, or players. Once all the money is collected, up to $150 total, all cards are turned face up and the community cards are dealt. The best hand wins! Splash pots can be chopped between players.

1053 Hours * $10 = $10,530 Invested in splash pots

In most of the homes games, the host will contribute $50 to $150 for the Main Splash Pot to kickstart the game. These cost $15 to $50 per player to participate (optional).

House 1: 69 Sessions; $150 added, $50 to play; Pot max = $650Ö 69*50 = $3,450 invested

House 2: 61 sessions; $100 added, $15 to play; Pot max = $250Ö 61*15 = $915 invested

House 3: 84 sessions; $100 added, $25 to play; Pot max = $350Ö 84*25 = $2,100 invested

$10,530 + $3,450 + $915 + $2,100 = $16,995 total invested

My initial reaction when I saw my total invested was ďOMG thatís A LOTĒ. Iím no splash pot king, that title belongs to another player/NIT. Thatís about all he plays and he wins constantly! LOL. I have won my fair share but I would think Iím a loser overall, but really hard to say.

So, THE BIG QUESTION. Should I stop playing them all together? Keep gambling and maintain that friendly, social attribute? Or be selective and play a strong range of hands so Iíll have a statistical advantage over the other 9 players/hands?

I thank you in advance and appreciate all your feedback, thoughts, questions, and calculations!

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Old 06-05-2018, 06:55 PM   #2
sw_emigre
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

By my definition, a splash pot has the house put some in the middle, and the hand plays normal. What you've got, that's not a splash pot, that's a (mostly) neutral EV flip. You lose a little in rake but for the atmosphere, I'd say it's worth it.
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Old 06-05-2018, 07:31 PM   #3
chipraker999
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

The first main splash pot the house donates about $100 and the players have to pay what the house sets as the max bet, which is anywhere from $15 to $50. All the others, $2 is taken per pot until $50 is collected then it's put in the middle and it's always a flat rate $10 to play your hand. The splash pots are never raked. Hope that clarify. But yes, it's mostly EV neutral I believe also. Since posting this thread, I've played 7 sessions for 31 splash pots. I saved $335 from the ones I didn't play, lost $100 from those I did play. If I played them all, I would've won $690. So I'm losing $455 from not playing them all. That's a good chunk of change. But I also feel I've been running above EV so I don't consider it normal. I might run this experiment through June then reevaluate. Everyone gives me a weird look and busting my balls since I've stopped playing them but it's all in good nature. We shall see! There may also be a tilt factor I have to consider folding a hand I could've won

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Old 06-05-2018, 08:32 PM   #4
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

Please don't take this the wrong way, but if you're thinking about whether you are up in these spots, you need to refine this part of your mindset. Plays are +EV, neutral, or -EV. This one is neutral.

You wouldn't flip a coin 10 times, only win 2 of them, and then declare that coin flipping is a losing play.

Once in a while I'll play red/black with some rec who is friendly but may need some extra stimulation to keep around. It'd be insane if I tracked my results here.
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Old 06-05-2018, 08:38 PM   #5
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

This is not neutral EV if I'm understanding it correctly and the house is adding money to each pot. It's definitely +EV.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding though, the OP is very confusingly written, which is why I didn't reply at first. If you really want any good advice, you should totally redo it.

Even the second post is somewhat confusing, but it seems to say that the first splash pot contains money from the house and the other ones from the players. But the splash is taken from earlier pots, and I imagine OP doesn't have the choice not to contribute if he wins a pot. So, while I would be very annoyed at the system if I played in this game, its still definitely +EV to play the splash pots. I don't know exactly which hands it would be correct to fold preflop, but it wouldn't be very many.
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Old 06-05-2018, 09:18 PM   #6
chipraker999
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

My apologies if my OP was hard to understand. I tried my best to keep my explanation simple.

Yes the house contributes the cash for the first splash pot to start the game. Everyone has an option to play for that cash for anywhere between $15 to $50, depending on what the host decides for that game. Once there's a winner, the game proceeds as normal.

In addition to the rake, they take an additional $2 per hand. Once $50 is collected, it's put in the middle, and everyone has the option to play for it for only $10. If someone folds their hand, it can be bought by another player.

Hope this helps. I understand how foreign this may sound to those that don't do these or only play at the casino or online.

Thanks for the feedback

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Old 06-05-2018, 09:27 PM   #7
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

You pay the promo "rake" whether you play the splash pots or not, right? Therefore, if you don't play, you are passing up on the chance to get your "rake back."

Not playing sounds like -EV to me.
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Old 06-05-2018, 09:29 PM   #8
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

Yeah, sorry if I cam across as too harsh. Maybe it's more that what the house does is confusing than that what you wrote is confusing. But you really gave us way too much info, which confused things. If I am correct that you don't get a choice to participate in the $2 dropped from pots you win, that's really irrelevant to the situation so it didn't need to be mentioned at all.

Basically the house is dumping some money on the table occasionally, and you can decide whether you want to to be dealt in or not. If you are dealt in, you can decide to play preflop or not, for one fixed amount.

If this is correct, you definitely should always be dealt in, because you would want to play if you are dealt in AA, correct? From that point you just need to figure out which hands to fold preflop.

That would depend on the ratio between the amount required to call and the amount dumped into the pot. If the house dumped $1000 into the pot and the amount required to call was only $1, you would put that dollar in with every hand you are dealt. If the amount dumped into the pot was $1 and they amount required to call was $1000, you would only want to play hands that were at least even money against a table full of random hands.

In reality, it's going to be somewhere in the middle of those two extremes, so you will want to play tighter than you would in my first example, and looser than you would in my second. I'm guessing you will want to play pretty loose here if you're trying to maximize EV and don't care about the variance. Like as a guess, play maybe 90% of your hands, folding only the very worst. Hope this helps.
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Old 06-05-2018, 09:41 PM   #9
chipraker999
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

Yes sir you're on track! I suppose the detail of the additional $2 rake per pot didn't matter much. My mistake. My odds to win the hourly splash pot is 140:10 or 6.6%. I have been deciding to play a tighter range but surely to tight. All Broadway, suited Ax, and suited one and two gappers. So, if my odds are that good, then I surely should play everything?

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Old 06-06-2018, 01:24 PM   #10
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

Well now I'm thoroughly confused. I thought the house took $2, basically a BBJ drop, and when they hit a certain amount they put it in the middle, only for players who opted in, and it was one bingo hand (cards turned up, board dealt out, no action) to determine the winner. Now you're talking about playing ranges...**** it, I'm out.
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Old 06-06-2018, 02:47 PM   #11
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sw_emigre View Post
Well now I'm thoroughly confused. I thought the house took $2, basically a BBJ drop, and when they hit a certain amount they put it in the middle, only for players who opted in, and it was one bingo hand (cards turned up, board dealt out, no action) to determine the winner. Now you're talking about playing ranges...**** it, I'm out.
Sir you are correct, it is a bingo hand. But do you think I stand to win a higher percentage of the time if choose a range of hands to play?

I'm also amazed at how confusing I seemed to have made this post to all those that chose to read it and also reply and not sure if I can explain it much simpler.

You can assume that the $2 is included as the rake or not, either way, once $50 is put aside, about every 25 hands, then that $50 is put in the middle and it's a bingo hand so to speak. Flat rate $10 to play, no further action, hands up, best hand wins!

My intentions with this post was to hopefully have a better understanding of is it more plus EV to play them or not, since I'm aware I invested $17,000 playing them last year, put never tracked how much I won in return. My assumptions was it's a losing play in the long run, and I'm better off not playing and keeping that money saved.

But, if I choose to play them, given my pot odds are 140:10 or 6.6% and my hand has to beat 9 other hands, which is 9:1 or 10%, would it be better and more profitable in the long run to play a tighter range of hands.

And now that I see the odds, it's clear I should always play them because the pot odds are always in every players favor and my hand stands an equal chance against 9 other random hands. I suppose I just answered my own question despite this being are very long post and what seems like a not very useful discussion after all.

Thanks again to you all

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Old 06-06-2018, 02:59 PM   #12
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

So 10%-6.6%=3.4%

17,000*3.4%= 578

So, am I wrong to assume that every player has the equal chance of winning $578 profit from a $17,000 investment if we were to play every Splash pot?

What if I decide to chop the winnings with another player (if his or my hand wins, we get $75 a piece?

What if I chop a hand with a player and we buy another hand that's been folded for $5 each. Now that's $15 invested for 3 hands out of the 10 that could win!

There must be a winning strategy to this...

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Old 06-06-2018, 03:55 PM   #13
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

If you can still get dealt a hand and have the option to fold preflop, then everyone's odds are not the same. Regardless I would be playing almost all of my hands, but if the splash amount was not that big compared to the amount required to play then I would be folding my worst hands, i.e. 72o, etc. If the splash pot is very large and the amount to play small, I would play even those. There should be a way to figure out exactly what hands to play based on the two dollar amounts, but it would be beyond my ability and likely not worth the effort anyway.
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Old 07-07-2018, 10:22 PM   #14
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

Interesting, but depends on when you have to make the decision to play.

If you have to decide before seeing the cards, I'm putting $10 in blind when $50 is added every time.

If you get to look, and decide to call the $10 (with no further betting), then I'm considering hand strength over everything else, knowing it's multiway and one bet, and adjusting accordingly. Axs, I'm in. Any pair, I'm in. Less crazy for suited connectors, but $10 to win $150.... I'm in with suited bway cards
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Old 07-11-2018, 11:06 AM   #15
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

Quote:
Originally Posted by chipraker999 View Post
So 10%-6.6%=3.4%

17,000*3.4%= 578

So, am I wrong to assume that every player has the equal chance of winning $578 profit from a $17,000 investment if we were to play every Splash pot?

What if I decide to chop the winnings with another player (if his or my hand wins, we get $75 a piece?

What if I chop a hand with a player and we buy another hand that's been folded for $5 each. Now that's $15 invested for 3 hands out of the 10 that could win!

There must be a winning strategy to this...

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If every player had +$578 ev and followed that strategy where would the money come from?

So much wrong math in this thread


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Old 07-11-2018, 01:37 PM   #16
chillrob
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bantam222 View Post
If every player had +$578 ev and followed that strategy where would the money come from?
I haven't checked the math, but presumably the money comes from a player supported promotional fund that OP has to contribute to whether he plays the splash pots or not.
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Old 07-13-2018, 08:53 PM   #17
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Re: Playing Splash Pots... Do, Don't, Depends?

Yes, I'm assuming there is money added, that was previously collected from players (no option). So I'm also assuming that OP and the rest of the table contributed.
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