Quote:
Originally Posted by The Palimax
Deeper, I likely still take a line where I pot the flop. I want to absolutely be able to bomb the turn should the board pair -- in that I don't want a low drawing for half. I want the pot big enough to do something with on the turn.
....but that's just me.
So, if you pot the flop, what's your plan (assuming we are deeper stacked) if:
1) You are called and any A, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8 or 9 comes off? (I know the 9 isn't even a low card, but in the game OP described people probably overvalue open ended straight draws and could see this as a factor here) and you have now built a big pot, are playing OOP and are either behind both ways or getting completely freerolled to the whole pot?
2) You are reraised. Are you happy to get 100+ BBs in here with a very vunerable hand?
There are 20 low cards left in the deck that we don't want to see and 17 of those cards complete any low draw AND a lot of potential straight draws.
There are only 7 cards that all but lock up a high for us (1-K, 3-5s, 3-6s), excluding the rare times someone makes quads.
There are 12 cards that assure we still have the nut high (4-Ts, 4-Js, 4-Qs), but, any of these cards now give extra equity to any hand with an A, two broadways and a wheel card.
There are 4 nines that don't bring a low, but now mean that we potentially no longer have the nut high.
Just some equities on a few hands...
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|
KcKhAh7s | 46.60% | 47,892 | 98,842 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A234 | 53.40% | 58,598 | 58,598 | 0 | 108,864 | 0 |
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|
KcKhAh7s | 44.29% | 43,476 | 95,989 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2345 | 55.71% | 61,451 | 61,451 | 0 | 113,088 | 0 |
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|
KcKhAh7s | 43.33% | 47,892 | 88,534 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2347 | 56.67% | 68,906 | 68,906 | 0 | 108,864 | 0 |
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|
KcKhAh7s | 51.75% | 35,856 | 86,362 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A247 | 48.25% | 31,718 | 31,718 | 0 | 81,648 | 0 |
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|
KcKhAh7s | 51.95% | 29,640 | 86,356 | 0 | 0 | 13,392 |
A378 | 48.05% | 29,918 | 31,724 | 0 | 68,256 | 13,392 |
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|
KcKhAh7s | 60.59% | 53,121 | 87,246 | 0 | 26,352 | 0 |
6543 | 39.41% | 28,101 | 30,834 | 0 | 61,488 | 0 |
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|
KcKhAh7s | 65.18% | 11,126 | 27,058 | 0 | 3,024 | 324 |
A266 | 34.82% | 2,318 | 2,462 | 0 | 17,064 | 324 |
Obviously, there are other hands that we could run here as well. I just think that building a big pot on this board texture is very dangerous. This flop has 2 low cards that are coordinated and almost any low draws have scoop equity against us as opposed to a flop like K82 where a low draw has very little high equity against our hand. We have a backdoor heart draw but plenty of low hands can also have backdoor diamonds and clubs here to add to their low and straight draw equity as well (even if not a ton, it still must be accounted for in this game).
My point is, with OPs stack in the actual hand, I'm getting it in every time. If I'm deeper, I'm taking a much different line. Plus, there are still two cards to come. I'd much rather set myself up to bomb a safe turn card with only one card to come and the odds of my opponent making a hand going down then build a pot with two streets still left to play.
Last edited by avaholic; 11-21-2011 at 05:52 PM.