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Originally Posted by vixticator
It has nothing to do with gratitude. He's got a powerful ally in the Lanniaters. Mind you, an ally that he won over through some elite diplomacy. There's no other "side" he can defect to, he has no army, etc. Joffrey dying does nothing to improve his position. It actively works against everything he's worked to build throughout THE ENTIRE SERIES. Like what's his next play, how did this make his position better? Why didn't he side with Stannis or Robb? LF is not a major player. He needs powerful allies, he doesn't want to make powerful enemies. Assassinating Joffrey doesn't help him in any fashion.
You're completely misunderstanding Baelish's character if you think his goal the entire series has been to make friends with powerful people. That has been part of his plan, but his ultimate goal is to be a powerful person. Of course there is risk, but there's been risk in everything he's done, it just so happens that so far he's bet on the right horse.
You seem to be having a lot of trouble compartmentalizing the different possibilities and theories. I never said that the fool and Sansa had anything to do with his plot. They could, but I personally don't think the fool had anything to do with it, and the speculation that he must, since he recently got screen time, is really weak.
If Baelish is behind this, and he gets away with it (which he almost certainly will), then he still retains the Lannisters and the Tyrells as allies-- why would you think this changes?
As for why he didn't side with another camp during the war-- well he didn't really side with anyone until he felt he stood to gain the most from siding with the Lannisters. But he's already gained everything he's going to gain from that arrangement. The only way to juice more out of it would be to create more turmoil, where he can again climb another rung in the ladder.