This show needs to end with everyone dead after a few more betrayals. Anything less is not in keeping with the themes of this show.

I'm fully on team white walkers. Could be a pretty good metaphor with current issues like climate change or rising fascism - humans ignore the bigger problems to squabble amongst each other, resulting in the downfall of humanity.

Or not having a wall

also saw some theorizing about Arya using his face, and, to me, that makes a helluva lot more sense than him faking his death

she prob gonna get the Mountain, maybe Cersei too

Oh my god. So good.

One auction left in my GoT deathpool calcutta.

1) How much is a fair price for Dany
2) Which characters were value, which were overpays



Fwiw, my characters I have purchasedwon at auction are

Tyrion and Sam massive overpays. Sansa as well. Not a fan of your Gilly buy, think she lives.

Dany maybe 400?

Quite a few overpays there, don't see the point in shelling out 200 for Brienne or Bronn. Basically if you don't have a good hunch that they're going to die, it's not worth paying a pile for them. No reason for either of those characters to die.

Why did you pay so much for Jamie? Are you just convinced he's the one that will kill Cersei?

Hot Pie seems like the steal of the century if I understand how the payout system works.

If the payout system for deaths is 50% of total pool and that ends up at say $8400, that means that the payout per death depending on total deaths looks like $4200/deaths:

deaths: $ for each death

35: $120
30: $140
25: $168
20: $210


Don't know how many will die but 30 seems more than reasonable. If that's the case, Hot Pie is priced to die less than 9% of the time which seems absurdly cheap.

Jamie seems super overpriced considering Arya is in the mix and Cersei might just off herself out of spite so no one else can get her first.

Meera, Podrick, Yara, and Missandei look like really good deals.

Bran seems overpriced unless you are convinced he'll get the last words.

Euron and Qyburn seem significantly overpriced, not sure what the reasoning is for those two. Does someone think Qyburn will poison Cersei?

Beric also seems crazily overpriced, perhaps more than anyone else. Guess I'm missing something obvious. Do people get 2x credit if he dies twice or something?

Tyrion looks a good deal as he's in the running for everything bar first death.

He's a near lock both to die himself and to kill Cersei. There are all sorts of prophecies about both.

They're both near locks to die.

He's 0.00% for the Iron Throne and very unlikely to die imo. I think I said this upthread a bit but he very likely ends up lord of Casterly Rock in view of Tywin's repeated insistence that he won't. The deaths of Cersei and Jamie will facilitate this.

For Jamie to make money, he has to be a lock for more than just dying. At $645 (assuming $8400 total pool), he loses money if more than 6 people die. That seems guaranteed. Even if only 10 people die making the payouts $420, he still loses $225. If the Cersei killer payout is $840, he needs to be >27% to kill her to just break even.

More reasonable, if we assume 17.5 die (per the 15-20 initial estimate), that's $240/death, meaning a $405 overpay, or needing a >48% chance for him to be Cersei's killer. 48% seems really high.

Same deal for Euron ($260) & Qyburn ($324), but they seem much less likely to trigger an additional condition. Euron running away on his boat seems like he is less likely to end up dead than many of the others. Qyburn is the one that really stands out. What % is he to hit another condition? Right now he's at an $84 overpay given 17.5 deaths. What possible condition will he trigger outside of maybe killing Cersei?

Euron is totally dying. I agree that Qyburn is overpriced, but not as egregiously as some of the others.

48% for Jamie to kill Cersei seems very reasonable, even with the valonqar prophecy not being in the show.

I'm persuaded that Jaime is a decent favourite to kill Cersei, pretty much a certainty to die himself and he has a little equity for a few other payouts (last death, first to speak). I guess a lot depends on the drafting order, were they sold from bottom to top? If so you presumably had a load of info on which to base your bidding range so I'm keen to know how high you were willing to go for Jamie.

As for Dany, I'd have her around 5% each for first to speak, last to speak, killer of Cersei and last death. Zero chance she dies first, but prolly around a 20% shot to sit on the throne at the end? idk, those numbers all look bad now. Again, keen to hear your plans.

Really cool idea for an auction, I can't think of a tv show since LOST where such a thing would have even been thinkable.

Why do you think Euron will die? Isn't the last time we saw him when he ran away after they showed him and Cersei the white walker in the box? What's going to bring him back?

Had no clue what the valonqar prophecy was but looks like it's something from the books which I haven't read. Not sure how closely they are following the books at this point but I remember people saying things were diverging. Pretty much everyone wants to kill Cersei tho, so that why 48% seems high to me. Arya, Sansa, Tyrion, Khaleesi, and Snow just off the top of my head. Of course the probabilities won't be evenly distributed but 48% looks really high for a single person.

Wouldn't be too surprised if the first spoken words were by so minor no-name character rather than anyone on the list. If Drogon roars does that count? lol

pretty sure he didn't actually run away, it was just a crappy excuse to leave and go get the Iron Bank to support them or something. He's coming back to fight afaik

last we saw Theon was going after Euron to save Yara, so that has to pay off in some way
(could see Euron & Theon both dying or something, and Yara taking over the II)

will that storyline have any endgame significance, or is it something they could do first and then drop almost entirely?

Cersei tells Jaime that Euron has gone to Essos to recruit the Golden Company to fight for her.

It's not just the valonqar thing. Several times in the books both Jaime and Cersei think things like "we were born together and we will die together".

It's true that the show could deviate from this but there are thematic reasons to go along with it. Jaime is on a redemption arc, he's in the process of creating a new identity. Killing Cersei is symbolic of his rejection of what Cersei represents; ruthlessness, self-interest, and the supremacy of House Lannister. Cersei and Jaime have always been extensions of each other, their whole relationship is symbolic of the narcissism of the Lannisters.

The show also dropped this hint last season. The valonqar prophecy states that Cersei will be strangled. This scene depicts Cersei standing on a part of Westeros called The Neck, while Jaime stands by The Fingers.

This is the part (at 5:20) that had me thinking Euron ran away:




I didn't remember Cersei mentioning anything after that about him going to recruit the Golden Company instead. Looks like you guys have much better memories than me:

No, I just googled what happened before replying. I was pretty sure that Euron hadn't just run away, but I'd forgotten what the deal was. "Euron is going to get the Golden Company to fight for Cersei" makes absolutely no sense in book terms, the show has just borrowed the name "Golden Company" and made it a totally different thing.

Night King seems like biggest overpay to me at 435. Don't see how he has much equity for anything other than dying. Doesn't speak so can't win that 10%. Can't be first death. Unlikely to be last death as that would be way too traditional for last death to be villain. Don't see anyway he kills Cersei.

He does have some shot at ruler of Westeros, but think that is way too far a shot to be worth $400+. Even if only 20 characters die , he needs to be ruler of Westeros 35% of the time to be break even - [.35*840 + .65 (since he can't both be ruler and die) * 210 = 430]. I'd put the odds closer to 10%, at best.

Yeah I'd sort of skimmed over that because he obviously dies, but 435 is way too much. The chance at ruler of Westeros is zero, the "LOLZ MAYBE THE NIGHT KING WILL WIN, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN GAME OF THRONES!" thing is absurd. Can you imagine how much it would ruin a rewatch of the show to know that none of this palace intrigue **** matters because in the end the ice monsters just bulldoze everyone?

Auction was from roughly bottom to top (the $1 and $2 characters were in a slightly different order as I added a few of them in late), obviously the fun of the game is not knowing how much the total pot will be, which is why a lot of middling characters were overpriced (I was giving a rough projection of the prizepool as we went, assuming that characters would be go for a price roughly linear to my initial base prices (which formed the initial prizepool).

Stupidly good fun, plan is to reduce the characters by 10x and have a random draft for them in order to allow my less balling friends to gamble on the show

Also have to remember the nature of auctions (like sporting free agency) is that most characters will be overpaid if only a couple people are interested.

We have had roughly 20 unique people by characters, I think one person owns 5, the rest are lesser owned.