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WTF River? WTF River?

12-10-2017 , 08:29 PM
Guy has been playing pretty loose. Not sure what to do on this river or any other parts of the hand you think I should play different.
Thanks



    Poker Stars, $5 Buy-in (2,000/4,000 blinds, 400 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37887052

    MP2: 465,679 (116.4 bb)
    Hero (MP3): 159,789 (39.9 bb)
    CO: 56,360 (14.1 bb)
    BTN: 169,845 (42.5 bb)
    SB: 524,758 (131.2 bb)
    BB: 87,382 (21.8 bb)
    UTG+1: 128,367 (32.1 bb)
    UTG+2: 64,054 (16 bb)
    MP1: 122,000 (30.5 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q Q
    4 folds, Hero raises to 9,600, 2 folds, SB calls 7,600, BB folds

    Flop: (26,800) 9 T 2 (2 players)
    SB bets 4,000, Hero raises to 26,555, SB calls 22,555

    Turn: (79,910) A (2 players)
    SB bets 4,000, Hero calls 4,000

    River: (87,910) 5 (2 players)
    SB bets 484,203 and is all-in, Hero folds

    Spoiler:
    Results: 87,910 pot
    Final Board: 9 T 2 A 5
    Hero mucked Q Q and lost (-40,555 net)
    SB mucked and won 87,910 (47,355 net)



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    WTF River? Quote
    12-11-2017 , 12:23 PM
    Polarized range for sure, either a monster or missed draw. The problem is your hand blocks a bunch of missed draws, but on the flipside there are very few monsters he could have on this board.

    Min donkbets are usually draws but could also be a set afraid you'll check behind on a flop that's good for his range. But even if we include sets and 2p hands (T9/AT), along with the range of Axhh hands that hit top pair on the flop, I think you're still ahead. Assuming my combo counting is correct, I count more combos of missed draws (even with your blockers) than hands that beat you. I count 40 combos of the busted OESD alone (QJ/J8/87) and there aren't even that many combos of sets/2p/Axhh. This is of course assuming he would 3b pre with AA/KK/AK.

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    WTF River? Quote
    12-12-2017 , 06:14 AM
    id fold river here

    how many bluffs does he have when we get a turn that is more favourable for our range then the sb?

    As Darth mentioned we block some hands that he could be semibluffing with so that leaves him more weighted to made value hands. Also we are pretty priced out and have to show up with the best often.

    Does anybody flat the flop to keep his range as wide as possible or are we always raising?
    WTF River? Quote
    12-12-2017 , 09:55 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wowsooooted
    id fold river here

    how many bluffs does he have when we get a turn that is more favourable for our range then the sb?

    As Darth mentioned we block some hands that he could be semibluffing with so that leaves him more weighted to made value hands. Also we are pretty priced out and have to show up with the best often.

    Does anybody flat the flop to keep his range as wide as possible or are we always raising?
    Hard to attach any meaning to a 4k min stringbet into an 80k pot. But it could be a blocker hoping Hero won't raise again.

    Obviously my analysis depends on my interpretation of villain donking the flop with draws. For Hero to be behind villain basically has to have exactly a flopped set. Unless my assumption that the river bet represents a polarized range is incorrect and villain is shoving Axhh trying to fold a better Ace. But even then there are still so many combos of missed draws.

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    WTF River? Quote

          
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