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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 10-19-2018, 07:02 AM   #1
misterw95
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wet board, hard decision w/set

BLINDS(75-150)

Seat 1: Cangheno (4490 in chips) (UTG)
Seat 2: Smacchino10 (5754 in chips) (UTG+1)
Seat 3: danixlx99 (9751 in chips) (MP1)
Seat 4: frydek09 (6729 in chips) (MP2)
Seat 5: ilmafioso91 (7817 in chips) (MP3)
Seat 6: Zekila (4954 in chips) (CO)
Seat 7: VioZac (5926 in chips) (BTN)
Seat 8: piso360 (3594 in chips) (SB)
Seat 9: ffcfy (10881 in chips) (BB)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ilmafioso91 9 9

frydek09: calls 150

ilmafioso91: raises 450 to 600

ffcfy: calls 450

frydek09 : folds

*** FLOP *** A 9 Q
ffcfy: checks

ilmafioso91: bets 750

ffcfy: calls 750

*** TURN *** 8
ffcfy: checks

ilmafioso91: bets 2100

ffcfy: raises 2100 to 4200

ilmafioso91: folds

I was scared of this board and I panicked when he re-raised me OOP so I decided to leave this pot avoiding to lose any more money...was my decision good based on the action? what do you think he had? and most of all if he really has hit the flush would he just call instead of re-raise?
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Old 10-19-2018, 12:34 PM   #2
MOnes
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Re: wet board, hard decision w/set

A lot of missing information. Let's assume you're playing a tournament and nowhere near the cash line. Not considering the type of villain (nit - he has it, lag-semi-bluff, fish-bluff) I would not have folded.

Likely the villain's range is AXc, AK, AQ and of course AA, KK, QQ. Given the action it's slightly more likely he has AK, AQ, KK (which you are beating) vs. AXc, AA, QQ (which you are behind). There are 12 combinations of AK, 9 combinations of AQ, and 6 combinations of KK. If we assume he's re-raising pre-flop half the time with AK and KK that leaves us ahead of 18 combinations. There are 9 combinations of AXc and 4 each of AA and QQ. If we assume he's re-raising half the time with AA and 1/4 the with QQ that leaves a total of 14 combinations you're behind. Even if you factor in the small number of times villain has J10 or just two random clubs you should be ahead of villain's range about half the time.

For the times you are behind consider the pot odds, if you call the min-check raise you're getting almost 4.4 to 1 (meaning you only have to win about 19% of the time to break-even) and assuming he has the straight or flush (not AA or QQ) you have 9 outs meaning 21% equity so that should (mathematically) be a call. If you further consider implied odds of gaining more chips on the river (or on the turn if you re-raise) then it's even more a call. You might also consider shoving the turn if he's the type of player who can make a fold or is a lot better playing later streets than you are. Btw, your flop bet was too small on such a wet flop and gave him good odds to call with a draw.

Lastly, if this is a tournament how can you put almost half your stack into the pot and fold? It leaves you with less than 30 BBs and that's a very difficult stack size to play for most players.

Bottom line, folding was not the choice I'd have made.
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Old 10-19-2018, 01:09 PM   #3
misterw95
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Re: wet board, hard decision w/set

thanks great advise!
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Old 10-19-2018, 10:55 PM   #4
MOnes
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Re: wet board, hard decision w/set

One other point - while I would have called as played - in addition to the betting the flop larger, I also would have usually checked the turn. Your hand value on the flop went from strong to marginal. Checking back marginal hands on the turn when the a lot of the villain's range improves gives you the chance to hit an out on the river (without putting in chips if you're behind) and will narrow his range upon seeing his river action. If he's behind on the turn there are fewer river cards that help him than leave him behind and in a tournament winning chips is not as meaningful as not losing the same amount.
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Old 11-14-2018, 09:18 AM   #5
gatoalicia
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Re: wet board, hard decision w/set

As I asked in another post with a similar problem, wouldn't be this one of those spots in which you need to protect your hand (vulnerable to potential draws) with a bigger bet on the flop? With a bet of 2/3 or 3/4 of the pot you are giving worse odds to your opponents with drawing hands. Someone with top pair or even top two would still call as they have a made hand already, but drawing hands would fold or at least you would have made them make a mathematical mistake. If they call you with a flush draw and make it, so be it, you can not stop that, but if they continue to call that kind of bet, and you play against similar move often, you gonna win many more times than lose.

Let me know guys what you think about that, and how you think the implied pot odds affect this kind of problem too. I am unsure what to do in these situations too but a bet of 1/2 of the pot simply looks to me too small and I don't see how it eliminates the problem of "putting your opponent in a hand".

Also, when you got a hidden set you actually have more chances to improve your hand to either full house or quads than a player holding a flush or even straight draws. How does that affect the problem given?

Thanks a lot for your answers!
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Old 11-14-2018, 09:41 AM   #6
zhukaSS
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Re: wet board, hard decision w/set

you definitely need to check turn

there is also combo of JT that villain would have defended in bb and you are behind to consider.

basicaly i would have played as played till turn, check turn and then depending on villain call river to some extent
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Old 11-15-2018, 04:46 AM   #7
nonsimplesimon
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Re: wet board, hard decision w/set

How many outs do you have (assuming he has the nuts every time which he doesn't but for this question let's say he does)?
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Old 11-15-2018, 09:31 AM   #8
gatoalicia
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Re: wet board, hard decision w/set

Someone with AA or QQ would have raised (might be trapping but let's not count with that as an option), so we dont think we are facing a better set. Out opponent might have 2 clubs but might not have them too. Since suited combos are usually played, let's assume he could have 2 clubs, but it is just as likely that he would have 2 diamonds, 2 spades or 2 hearts (just a fact to consider IMO). Given the action, we didn't bet high enough for a flush draw to mathematically have to fold, so we can't know for sure that he didn't complete his potential draw. He might be as well just calling our standard C-Bet on the flop and representing a made flush, which can be a bluff (and then we are way ahead) or not, in which case we still have 10 outs to win the hand: 3 Aces, 3 Queens and now on the turn 3 Eights, plus the remaining 9 for quads. If either of those cards fall in the river we very likely have the nuts. I am not counting with the straight draw as we theoretically got rid of that draw with out bet size, but of course there is a chance that we got called and we are facing a straigth, in which case nothing changes as we would be in the same situation as against a flush.

I think in this situation I would deffo call and even push (as I will be pot commited from now on whatever card falls in the river). The pot is something around 9.2k and it cost me 2.1k to call. 10/46 cards give me the victory. That's 3.6 to 1 odds and the pot offers me about 4.5 to 1.

Do you guys think this reasoning works well for this hand?
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