$65 live super satellite, about 2.5 hrs in. My table just broke so I have no history with anyone in this hand. We aren’t even approaching he bubble so ICM is not so much a consideration.

600/1200/1200

V1 is an older cowboy type and opens to 3k off a 9.8k stack from UTG.

I 3! to 9k off about 44k UTG+1 (first 3! I’ve seen all night)

Utg+2 calls (stack turns out to be about $35k to start.

V1 jams his last 800, we both call and we see a flop.

The flop is 7 high and two tone.

I check, expecting V2 to check behind and run the board out.

Instead he jams into a dry side pot.

I genuinely didn’t know what to do. I had a lot of contradictory thoughts.

Is this a clear fold? A clear call? It seems a bit marginal to me, but I really don’t know.


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I can’t edit, so I’ll add that I had JJ. Sorry for forgetting to include that.


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snap

he's an idiot for setmining with 77ish type had so if he has it then gg and gl

no chance he's flatting QQ or better - although there's a possibility he'd didn't think cowboy was priced in or mistakingly believed cowboy's all in would have constituted new action and he could jam after you called off rest of cowboy's stack

to me this reads like the classic "I put you on AK so jammed a low board" type situation

it's sketchy as hell, you don't ever want to be making this call readless, but given how much you need to call vs how much in the pot and how much you've already put in I can't ever see a reason to fold here I see top of his value range at TT/99 type thing and more likely has something silly like KQs

Villain bet 26k~ into 41k~ so it's def a snap call esp if you're not anywhere near the payouts for the seat.

This was exactly my read. I didn’t snap, but I did call. His QQ held.

I don’t care about the results as long as my play was at least defensible. Thanks guys fir the feedback.


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sucks, but even if we had the read to put qq in his flatting range, we can't fold to a 50% pot shove with an overpair

gg, better luck next one

You asked in the other thread about my being sure it was 7BB +EV.

The numbers below are slightly different than above just because I got things wrong a bit above. The probability I use in the formula comes from running JJ against AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQs+ which seems a reasonable range for the play.

600/1200/1200 level = 3k blinds/antes

3000 open
9000 reraise
9000 call
6800 shove
800 call
800 call
———————
29,400 preflop action
+
3000 blinds and antes
———————
32,400 pot going to the flop

23,000 shove
———————-
55,400

EV=(%W*$W) + (%L*$L)
EV= (.4*55,400) + (.6*-23,000)
EV = 22,160 - 13,800
EV = 8,360 chips or 6.966666 BB


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They easily 4b/jam some of these hands and they may also be wider. Though if you're playing with them a lot or have sick reads and are to range them really well/etc. They may have some very specific hands here. Anyway, unlucky, gg.

This is true. I really wasn’t sure what hands they’d play this way. If I run the numbers without AA on this flop I jump to 48% and removing KK I move into the lead with 57%. I haven’t added smaller pairs because I just doubt they’re flatting a 3! I think AK, and AQs+ are reasonable bluff candidates so I kept them in.

In another thread I was asking if 7BB EV from the play was enough to justify the risk. They asked if I was sure I was getting that result. So I wanted to show my process and make sure it wasn’t flawed to give an artificially high EV.


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