Hi guys,
Small field tourney, 11 paid, I'm 12 out of 16.

PokerStars, €0.90 + €0.10 - Hold'em No Limit - 60/120 (15 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker - https://upswingpoker.com/convert

UTG: 2,021 (17 bb)
UTG+1: 4,209 (35 bb) - no read on him
MP: 5,116 (43 bb)
MP+1: 6,370 (53 bb) - he's a real maniac
CO: 4,833 (40 bb)
BU: 3,922 (33 bb)
SB: 27,837 (232 bb)
BB (Hero): 2,421 (20 bb)

Pre-Flop: (300) Hero is BB with 8♣ 8♠
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to 300, 1 fold, MP+1 calls 300, 3 players fold, BB (Hero) folds

900 dead money, my stack is 2400, I guess it should be an easy shove ?
Let's say the initial raiser calls a shove with 30% of his opening range.
And the maniac never folds, so many many combos with 2 cards over my 88

So 30% of the time we have an ugly 3-ways, and 70% of the time we have a flip to win against the maniac. The flip is actually not a bad one (55% equity maybe, and a ton of dead money).
But still, it's a flip close to the bubble. I know I'll have to push my chips before the bubble bursts, but I prefered doing it later in spots where I have some FE.

Is that correct, or should I have taken this spot ?

You only need to put in 180 chips to call here, and you'll still have more than 2,000 behind, so you've barely got enough to set-mine. I would just call here. You close the action. See what the flop brings.

I wouldn't rule out getting it all in on the flop, even without a set, but it would depend on exactly what the flop looks like and what the other two players do.

I definitely would NOT shove preflop in this spot. Against one opener (especially if he's loose or in late position), then maybe. But not against two. And if you only had like 15 BBs, I'd probably shove. But 20 BBs is too deep to shove against two guys with 88.

Makes sense.
I didn't even consider calling actually.
My set-mining mode was switched off I believe, due to my relatively shallow stack.
But you're right, the odds are good enough here.

Pretty sure the right play is just to jam here

Rethinking about the maniac's range, I realized I forgot to include A2-A7 (in game I roughly considered it was only 2 overcards hands).
Also I should remove JJ+, so I beat his PP range as well (in game I considered half of his PP were better than mine).

With that input I get 60% equity against his range. Not really a coin flip anymore.

If the open raiser opens top15% and calls my shove with top5%, we have the following outcome :
66% of the time heads-up against maniac, 60% equity, pot = 5200
33% of the time 3-ways, 28% equity, pot = 7400

EV is then +400 chips...
Set mining is probably cEV+ also...

I'm afraid the only bad play here was the one I took ?

I used to always be itching to get it all in anytime I hit 20 bbs because I didn’t want to be “that guy” who just folds and waits for aces and let’s his stack shrink away to nothing and either bubbles or mincashes.

But there is plenty of in-between when you have 12-20 bbs. And especially if you’re in this spot near the bubble. You can play a little more carefully and look for significant edges instead of risking it all on what may be a tiny edge.

Anytime there are multiple villains, that’s a lot more guesstimating on ranges. You have to figure out what range they start with and also what range is calling you. And the result can vary widely based on how accurately you can do that.

I prefer to have fewer variables when risking my tourney life, especially when I have enough chips to allow me to wait for what certainly will be another good spot.

Yes I agree with you. Also for the same reason (very hard to estimate fold equity against this field) I don't resteal much, I prefer stealing first in.

But I'm concerned about ignoring too many cEV+ spots...

Also taking the high variance spots can lead to having a big stack just before the bubble, which is very profitable...
I don't know, it's hard to strike a balance, and the hand here is a good example of spots that confuse me.

In general with any pair 99 or below you can never go too wrong calling with 10 to 1 or better implied odds.

Maniac is way too underdefined term here. also starting stack and mincash (technically full payout distribution) is important info. Will maniac reraise most 99+, KJ+, AT+, I mean it is not even maniacal to reraise all pairs higher than 88 and more than 50% of overcards hands. Does maniac call suited unconnected undercards, whatabout one non-ace overcard and one undercard suited, perhaps even hads like T7 off etc. Against some maniacs 88 has more than 60% equity. How much is the mincash and how much was starting stack? If Hero has 2 starting stacks and mincash is 1.2 buyins situation is very different than if Hero has 1.4 starting stacks and mincash is 2 buyins. Also if you call pre, maniacs range matters a lot. say flop is J74 action goes check-check-maniac bets 200-400 in 1k pot. If range works in a way that maniac has a lot of mid or bottom pairs that will later either check down or make tiny bets thus allowing Hero to now get stacked off Hero can realize a lot more equity with hand that is likely to be best.

Folding is bad. You are getting good odds to call in the BB. I would call, but shoving should also be better than folding. Don't worry much about the bubble.

bubble is not all that close as there are nearly 1/3 of field to be eliminated - if there were 160 players and 110 paid we wouldn't be taking too much notice of the bubble

I think this is too juicy a spot not to shove - calling is ok I guess but we find it hard to realise our equity

You have to get in, this is great spot to do it. Calling is somewhat viable, but is not better than just jam. Folding is, well, you know yourself now

Whoops, missed info about players. Yes 88 is easy shove, Hero is not even in a money position in chips. Thought this was 12 remaining 11 paid.

Thanks guys !
When should we consider it's actually the bubble ?
I mean, there is a moment when it's ok to ignore cEV+ spots against villains who cover us.

In the initial post, I realize it was to early for that, with 4 more players to bust.
But what is the good time then ?
Would 10% left to bust (1 player per table) be a good rule of thumb ?

It depends on how much the bubble means to you (and to other players). In smaller buyin tourneys, it probably means less.

It also depends how many short stacks there are. If you are 10 spots from the bubble and there are 15 players with less than 5 BBs, that's different than if you are 10 spots from the bubble and there are 2 players with less than 5 BBs.

I feel like those of you saying “easy shove” are forgetting there are two villains in this hand.

I think it would be a shove if any of these things were true...

Our stack was a little shorter (like 15, for sure)
It was against one villain (preferably not one who opened in EP)
We were farther from the bubble.

All of those factors, to me, mean it’s ok to play a little more cautiously. I think calling is totally fine here.

One other factor I just noticed: the SB has a huge stack. Considering it’s the bubble, everyone at the table ought to be damn careful when putting any chip in the pot with that guy left to act, because it’s really easy for him to 3-bet shove anything. That means that the first two guys who have already entered the pot before Hero should not be messing around.

The initial raiser is raising from UTG+1 with a huge stack yet to act, on the bubble. Even if you forget about the maniac, that’s one pretty tight range you’re against.

I’m still calling.