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Are we correct enough here? Are we correct enough here?

08-26-2020 , 02:30 PM
Final 4 in 10$ Tourney
SB had just lost two big pots in a row, gone from chip leader to short stack. SS graph looks like a consistent micro stakes small winner(700 games), so definitely capable.
I just think the turn bet is very rarely strength when the straight draw and an over card come, and his bet size is clearly setting up river jam. But are we correct enough in this spot to call down?

GG Poker - 3,000/6,000 Ante 600 NL - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 22.27 BB
Hero (BB): 34.79 BB
CO: 45.47 BB
BTN: 50.81 BB

4 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.9 BB) Hero has J 7

fold, fold, SB raises to 2.24 BB, Hero calls 1.24 BB

Flop: (4.89 BB, 2 players) T 4 J
SB bets 1.71 BB, Hero calls 1.71 BB

Turn: (8.3 BB, 2 players) Q
SB bets 3.22 BB, Hero calls 3.22 BB

River: (14.73 BB, 2 players) 6
SB bets 15 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 15 BB

SB shows 8 K (High Card, King)
(Pre 62%, Flop 21%, Turn 25%)
Hero shows J 7 (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 38%, Flop 79%, Turn 75%)
Hero wins 44.73 BB
Are we correct enough here? Quote
08-26-2020 , 11:55 PM
If you say villain is capable, then he will be mixing it.

With this sizes tho, I think it is more on the draw side, as he wants to make his SPR 1 getting to river, which will make the general pool fold second pairs and even weak TP when facing a pot bet.
Probably would be betting bigger on the turn with his value so he doesn't have to pot river.

Did you ship it?
GG, you at least got the podium
Are we correct enough here? Quote
08-27-2020 , 04:25 AM
Welcome to the forum but don't post results - it will skew the feedback - river would be a tough spot - without the history we should expect few bluffs in FT situations - I guess the chances that V is bluffing on tilt make it a call.
Are we correct enough here? Quote
08-27-2020 , 10:52 AM
I defenetly folding River here. Turn we have to call with so many draws out but not loving it. Otr i see no other option then fold. Ppl is just bluffing way to less on this stakes and we should overfold river. And in this scenario with icm heavily involved i see no other option then folding.
Are we correct enough here? Quote

      
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