Line ok?

nh

Since you have some showdown value I assume you're putting him on Ax, and turning your J9 into a bluff by trying to rep Tx? Would you bet that large on the turn with Tx? Do you expect sufficient fold equity on the river when villain bets 2/3 of the pot and will get almost 2:1 on the call when you shove?

When I'm deciding whether to run a river bluff I ask myself the following questions:
1) Do I have the range advantage on this board?
2) Am I at the bottom of my range?
3) Is my opponent unlikely to have a very strong hand?
4) Do I have blockers to my opponent's strongest hands?

The answer should be 'yes' to all four. In your case, 1 is debatable, 2 is no, 3 is also no (villain could have AK/AQ/AT/KTs/QTs which are all strong hands), and 4 is no.

Yes I agree somewhat with your reasoning but I think it is also shortsighted in the sense you haven't taken into entirety the line villain has taken with it being reasonable to assume villain will bet flop with most Tx for value and protection purposes.

2) isnt rly that important. of course you should keep your frequencies reasonable however J9 is a better bluffing hand than 78dd even though technically the latter is probably close to the bottom of your range. blockers are just way more important.

not like the river c/r because his bet looks like a v bet to me. Do you have reads about him?

Of course 2 is important, the point is you shouldn't be turning a decent showdown hand into a bluff.

In this hand J9 doesn't really block much of villain's strong hand range. AJ and maybe JT if that's in his range but that's about it. Q9 would be a better blocker hand. Still, this is far from a good river bluff spot.

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what would you think is the best hand to x/r the river with as a bluff if you could pick one?

River jam is bad, this is like the worst 9 you could pick to bluff with, so basically you are saying you bluff all your 9s as it blocks hands like QJ and J8 that you want him to be bluffing with.

I wouldn't be x/raising this river with any hand. You're trying to rep way too narrow a range on a board that is good for villain's range. You need him to be the kind of player willing to fold a big Ace because he thinks you have Tx. That's low percentage. Now if the board was something like 8755A instead of 93TTA you would have a much better river x/r situation.

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well first of all, there are def some hands that you want to x/r with because of how blocked you have a lot of value combos, while unblocking hands that villain will bet river with if checked to. those include a hand like T9 where you unblock all draw combos and almost all Ax combos, so naturally that hand plays better as a x/r. then a hand like 33 comes to mind as a x/r because again you unblock a lot of potential combos villain is going to put in his betting range (for whatever reason) if checked to. if we start checkraising those hands, naturally there have to be bluffs in our range and blocking a 9 is somewhat valuable because it drastically reduces his boat combos.

why is the board good for vils range after he checks back flop? that excludes a lot of very strong hands from his range, while our range remains uncapped. that is still the case otr where villain is capped to Ax while we can have basically any value hand imaginable.

now getting back to your point, being at the bottom of your range when you bluff is a guideline in order to keep bluffing frequencies reasonable. as in this example x/r bluffing every 9x combo would be way overbluffing however 9x is a better bluff than XdXd for example.

also if you dont have a checkraising range otr, would you lead your entire range otr (bluffs and value combos)?

So what you're saying is if someone is value betting a river you aren't ever bluffing?

Obviously if i think he's bluffing i'm calling here, his hand is so narrowed down to ace high floats / A9 for value. Also, I do think it's reasonable to disregard potential straight draws calling turn here because of RIO with flush draws betting flop most likely.
Also how is J9 worst to bluff with? By that logic you're saying that all QxJx KxJx J8s check flop and call turn of approx 66% pot? River is a spot I wouldn't expect villain to have a lot of bluffs given his line therefore being weighted towards one pair (two pair) type hands I believe the bluff is fairly justified.

Very informative post, nice!

I would prefer not to have a J when x/r as a bluff because we block a few of vils potential missed draw bluffs but it still works.

This is a good discussion, it's forcing me to think through this in depth.

As a general comment I will say that I think there is too much emphasis on balancìng ranges in this forum. Balance is important in cash games and high stakes tourneys, where you play a reasonable volume of hands against the same players. But in small stakes tourneys that just isn't the case. So you don't need a x/raising range on this river at all, nor do you need to put so much effort into balancing out your x/raising range because this spot against these players will occur once in a blue moon.

Villain might bet hands like JJ-AA and big diamond draws on the flop but he'll check back lots of stuff that connects with the flop or hits the Ace on the river: AJ-AK, sets (though 99/TT are obviously less likely), T9, QJ, 87. JT-AT might bet or check depending on the villain. He would probably also bet smaller pairs.

Then villain calls Hero's 2/3 pot on the paired turn. He would fold all his junk but likely call with the entire range I outlined above. Most of that range beats Hero on the river, when villain bets 2/3 pot. And getting almost 2:1 with a massive stack, he's not folding a value hand to a x/r there. Hero has a bluff catcher to hands like QJ/87 so there's no value in the x/r. That's why being at the bottom of your range is important, because you can't win at showdown with a hand like 87 or 54dd.

So would I x/r 87 or 54dd? No, because you still have the problem of villain's range connecting with the board as well as, if not better, than our hand does. Plus you have to consider how the hand played out from villain's perspective. Would Hero bet 2/3 pot on the turn with Tx or 33? I wouldn't expect him to do so. Would he check the river with Tx/33 and risk me checking behind? Unlikely. That greatly reduces Hero's fold equity when he makes the x/r. Hero can't have any other big hands in his range on that board.

I would fold before I x/r this river.



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That's probably why Hero is turning the J9 into a bluff because there is less chance of V having those missed str8 draws,a hand like K9 would be a bad bluff and better bluffcatcher

L

If I'm Hero and I have Tx/33 on that turn, I'm betting half pot at most. Likely a bit less.

If I'm villain in that spot with a big Ace, I would call your x/r with only a slight hesitation. I'm getting 1.8:1 so I only need to be good 35% of the time, and the only way I lose is if you have Tx. And I started the hand with a ****load of bb so I can snap this off with hardly any damage to my stack. The whole discussion has largely ignored this dynamic and how it impacts Hero's fold equity.

I fully agree that finding good spots to make moves is important for chipping up but in my mind this is a very high risk, low % play in this spot.

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if you adjust your betsizes according to your hand strength thats not going to end well. also in one of your posts you basically said that playing a fundamentally strong game with balanced ranges is unnecessary at micros and i couldn't disagree more. its always going to be the base and you can make adjustments based on specific reads/frequencies etc. if you have no guideline about what ranges you are going to play given certain actions you are literally button clicking.

also in that hand if you b/c any single Ax without too much thought its simply a losing play. i mean you said that no one should bluff that way but just snap put people on a bluff when they take that line. it doesn't add up.

I suggested that bet size because that is what my normal size would be with my entire range. Do you routinely bet 2/3 pot in this kind of spot?

I don't know how this follows from me saying that balance isn't as important in micro tournaments.

I said I wouldn't make this bluff bit clearly there are people that will. I also probably wouldn't bet if I were villain. But if I did, I would call the x/r because the story isn't convincing.


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