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Small Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of small stakes MTT strategy

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Old 10-04-2017, 06:13 AM   #1
Darth_Maul
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From villain's perspective: river x/r?

I'm doing this one a bit differently. When I reviewed this hand I started to think about it from villain's perspective and how I would have responded if I faced action on the river. So I've deleted my cards from the HH and I want people to think about the situation from villain's perspective. I think it's an interesting exercise.

PokerStars - 25/50 Ante 6 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 85.08 BB (VPIP: 12.70, PFR: 11.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 64)
UTG: 101 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
UTG+1: 105.12 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
MP: 104.98 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 12)
MP+1: 151.88 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
Hero (MP+2): 66.5 BB
CO: 97.88 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
BTN: 91.34 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
SB: 196.3 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)

9 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.58 BB) Hero has unknown cards

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, SB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (9.58 BB, 3 players) 5 T 3
SB checks, Hero bets 6.38 BB, fold, SB calls 6.38 BB

Turn: (22.34 BB, 2 players) 3
SB checks, Hero bets 11.18 BB, SB calls 11.18 BB

River: (44.7 BB, 2 players) J
SB checks, Hero checks

Question 1

Suppose you defend with one of the 3 hands below. Which, if any, might you bluff at the river? Assume for the sake of the exercise that you play the other streets the same way.

1) 76dd

2) 44

3) QJdd

Question 2

If none of the above, with what hands might you bluff the river?

Question 3

If you wouldn't bluff that particular river card, what river card would you bluff with any of the above (or other) hands?
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Old 10-04-2017, 12:36 PM   #2
daviid
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Re: From villain's perspective: river x/r?

what exactly do you mean by "bluffing"? donklead river after x/c the two previous streets? we shouldn't be doing this with any hand rly.
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Old 10-04-2017, 02:09 PM   #3
Darth_Maul
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Re: From villain's perspective: river x/r?

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Originally Posted by daviid View Post
what exactly do you mean by "bluffing"? donklead river after x/c the two previous streets? we shouldn't be doing this with any hand rly.
Yes, or checking with the intention to x/r if hero bets.

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Old 10-04-2017, 04:29 PM   #4
killer_kill
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Re: From villain's perspective: river x/r?

I'd bluff none, none have good blocking equity. A5s might be sexy to turn into a bluff as it blocks full houses but he shouldn't have many bluffs here. You don't want to have diamonds cause he wants you to have missed diamonds that you're potentially bluffing river with.
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Old 10-04-2017, 04:39 PM   #5
daviid
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Re: From villain's perspective: river x/r?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Maul View Post
Yes, or checking with the intention to x/r if hero bets.

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we basically only have 55 and 33 that want to x/r the river for value so given that its a super slim value range we should have a super limited amounts of bluffs as well. i wouldnt checkraise diamonds ever otr because we would block so many potential bluffcombos.

the problem is that our sb flatting/defending range consists of pps and broadway combos mainly and neither play particularly well against bets going in on all three streets. id hero some pps otr and fold most of them. i would probably call almost all of my Tx combos, might fold some that have a rly bad blocker tho (Tx9d is probably a worse call than two blacks 8s for example).

as i said before i would not ever lead river. thats a function of our overall range having no hands that want to lead river.
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Old 10-09-2017, 06:01 AM   #6
Colinb7
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Re: From villain's perspective: river x/r?

I'm so glad others said what I was thinking. I don't think I would ever bluff this river, either by donk leading or check raising. My check raising range on river would always be the nuts... not ideal strategy I suppose!
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Old 10-09-2017, 06:03 AM   #7
Colinb7
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Re: From villain's perspective: river x/r?

Why, would you fold your over pair? Makes 67s a much more appealing check raise. Would you triple barrel over pair here?
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Old 10-09-2017, 10:03 AM   #8
Darth_Maul
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Re: From villain's perspective: river x/r?

Interesting discussion. In the actual hand I had AA and won the pot but I started thinking about whether I missed some value not betting the river, which got me thinking about the risk of being x/r. So I was curious to see if anyone in villain's spot would consider a move on the river and, if not, what river card might entice you to x/r.

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Old 10-09-2017, 02:51 PM   #9
julien.roy
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Re: From villain's perspective: river x/r?

I don't have a donk bet range after call/call on both streets.

its check/raise // check/call // check/fold, never lead jam.

As for the hands you mention:

1) 76dd would've check/raised before river, so never getting there OTR.

2) 44 fold turn.

3) QJdd call small sizing, fold large sizing.

I'll add my check-raise.

4) 10/Jdd check/raise river.
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