We are about 3 hours into a multi day tournament and doing well. We are about twice chip average with over 50BB (45k). Blinds are 400-800 with 100 ante and we are 10 handed.


Folds to villian in cutoff (same size stack as me) who min raises to 1600. Folds to me in BB with Q7c. call.
Flop is Jc 6c 2d

I check and he checks behind. (I would’ve seriously considered a check-raise here)

Turn is Kc

I check. He bets 2,500; I make it 7k, he 3 bets to 13,500.

I’ll get into results and other thoughts later but I’m curious what you all think up to this point and what you do here?

Well played. If he had the nut flush it's just a cooler.

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Thoughts on shipping it vs flat. If you flat, is there any fold range for last 30BB on the river? Another club, paired board?

You could call and see a river then check/call if the board doesn't pair and is club free. If the board does pair or a club does come then a small 1/4 size pot bet on the river may show strength and may keep the damage down by inducing a call instead of a shove by the villian.

Pushing here though has it's merits and probably what I would tend to do. Fold equity 3 hours in is huge and your equity against his range is huge.

100% up to what history you have with the villian. Two pair, sets and a worse flush could all 3 bet on the turn. I would tend to lean towards shoving.

Curious how it turned out. I have yet to play a $400 tournament, you would be the expert.

I shoved and he called with A8c and I was drawing dead. Hard to go from 50BB to out nuts vs. 2nd nuts....so wrestled with this one for a week or two.

I didn't have any tangible history to justify it, but I felt like I knew he had it, and I just couldn't lay it down....that's what pisses me off the most. When thinking technically, there are a lot of times he may turn over a set or a cold Ace of clubs, which is what I've been thinking about strategically...

If you're the button with the dry Ace of clubs and you checked the flop, do you ever play the turn like that? It's a hella scary spot for a flush because it screams nuts...and the Ac has so much equity to try and win it there but also has outs if called or jammed on.

deffo jam turn, most people are cbetting clubs here so we shouldn't be too worried about it even tho he will show up with it from time to time

You did the right thing, just with a bad result, imo. I don't know how you get away from it.

Has anyone ever tracked situations like that when our gut tells us something outside of sound strategy? Would be interesting to know how many times our instincts prevail.