No Limit Hold'em Tournament T325/T650
8 players

Stacks:
UTG - Hero (T18,812)
UTG+1 - UTG+1 (T9,810)
MP - MP (T11,465)
MP2 - MP2 (T22,773)
CO - CO (T14,011)
BTN - BTN (T22,082)
SB - SB (T13,161)
BB - BB (T37,240)

Preflop: (T1,495, 8 players) Hero is UTG with 7 A
Hero raises to T1,300, 2 folds, MP2 raises to T3,125, 4 folds, Hero calls T1,825

Flop: 5 4 A (T7,745, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks

Turn: 7 (T7,745, 2 players)
Hero bets T3,872, MP2 calls T3,872

River: J (T15,489, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 raises to T15,711 (all-in), Hero ????

I think on the river here our SPR is less than one, we have two pair, and we are fairly short stacked to begin with, I don't love calling, but it feels too weak to me to check/fold this. I check / called because that keeps bluffs in his range as well.

How would you play this differently in general?

Yes, I call here.

Clear fold for me UTG low Ax hands are generally a fold here you can mix in some Axs that can make straights. The thing is you got to be good postflop if you want to open these hands as they can be hard to play profitable if you are just auto opening such a hand.

It’s also not a hand that I’d want to call a 3bet with as again you risk being dominated by better Ax and it’s often a situation where it’s hard to extract value unless you hit big.

As played I’d consider it a very easy call against a random as we are pretty much only losing to JJ/AA and perhaps Aj and some flopped flushes. However unless this guy is 3betting often most of these hands are probably not in his 3betting range so he might even be value jamming a worse hand.

Here's my decision process on calling the 3bet:

Villain here is 38/23 with 8% 3bet %.

A3s vs a range of 7% of hands - 99+, AJo, KQo, KQs, AJs has 36.3% equity preflop.
A3s vs a range of 2.2% of hands QQ+ AK+ has 29.4% equity preflop.

We are calling 1825 into a pot of 5920 - 3.2:1 - so we need to be good 23.81% of the time or better to make the call.

Now if you factor in equity realization - A3s OOP realizes 73% of it's equity on average - which is close if not positive EV still calling vs both of those ranges (its basically breakeven vs 2.2% of hand 3bet range, and villain is at 8%).

Doesn't factor in tournament dynamics (we were probably an hour or more away from the money at this point) but in cEV it was definitely positive EV to call there.

Your thinking is flawed. This isn't an all-in call where your decision closes the action for the hand, so you can't just calculate the ev of the call. Reverse implied odds become significant in situations like this. You have to think about the consequences of playing this hand out of position when you make the initial raise and then when you get 3b.

A7s UTG 8-handed is a super-standard fold because the implied odds are low (flushes are very obvious) and the reverse implied odds are high (hitting an Ace and losing to a better kicker, or some other better hand).

When you get 3b you have to factor in the fact that you raised UTG (which shows strength) and then villain, with an 8% 3b stat, 3-bet you in middle position. His range is going to be pretty narrow there. So you're calling a 3b out of position against a range that has you crushed with a hand that has low implied odds and high reverse implied odds. Even if you are getting decent direct odds at the time, calling the 3b is a very risky proposition.

Besides, I don't know why your calculations are for A3s when you raised A7s. A3s is more valuable than A7s because of the straight potential.

Good catch on the math - must have had A3s on the brain for some reason.

Other than that bit - part of why I used equity realization is to figure out from a mathematical standpoint how all the possible scenarios might play out - I'm not just looking at chip equity preflop - equity realization is a rough (though imperfect) way to account for the probability that the hand realizes all its equity through various scenarios - and the equity realization charts I've seen show A7s realizing approx 79% of it's equity when OOP (and 81% when IP) - this accounts for all the times you fold, etc. - its basically a mathematical way to handicap what you're describing (the reverse implied odds, etc).

Anyway - appreciate the feedback!

With no info on villain:

I'm thinking either he slow plays a good flop (3 of a kind, flush or even AQ-AK) or he has AJ and caught the Jack on the river for 2 pairs. I doubt he shoves the river with AK or AQ though.

I agree here. just fold pf and get a better situation to get involved in

fold pre and to 3b, as played c/c river

I had never heard of the term "equity realization" but my Google search reveals it perfectly captures the factors I mentioned. However, my research also revealed that it is extremely difficult to quantify and I couldn't find any equity realization charts.

Sent from my SM-G920W8 using Tapatalk

I believe it's a feature in Equilab, here is an example of one of the charts.