Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 250/500 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 18.1 BB (VPIP: 11.11, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 9)
CO: 22.09 BB (VPIP: 40.54, PFR: 5.41, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 37)
Hero (BTN): 35.07 BB
SB: 64.16 BB (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
BB: 27.28 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 27)
UTG: 47.88 BB (VPIP: 23.34, PFR: 16.85, 3Bet Preflop: 8.43, Hands: 848)

6 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has J J

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.2 BB, SB calls 1.7 BB, fold

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) Q 4 7
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (6 BB, 2 players) 8
SB checks, Hero bets 2 BB, SB calls 2 BB

River: (10 BB, 2 players) J
SB bets 7.5 BB, Hero?

should we raise for value or just call?

insta-shove river

which worse hands do you expect him to call with as played?

It's still possible he has jack seven or eight altho fairly unlikely. He could also have super slow played two pair. If he has the 910 which is basically the only hand here that beats us then we go broke and its just a cooler.

Assuming that he isn't playing the offsuit comobos, he can't have J7 and he has only one combo of J8(removal). In addition we also lose to 56s.

that would be at least 44/77/88/QJ. also your hand looks very weak in this spot (checking flop, very small turn bet) – he could call a lot wider.

as played I'd shove river, too. also bet the flop.

This is a really results oriented post. He should never have QQ flatting sb vs a btn raise. 56s is loose and regardless is 4 combos, can't have 56o. Can have 9Ts but again that's 4 more combos. 9To is horrendous to play this way. He can have Qx hands and 78s and could maybe be bluffing 99/66 sometimes.

I usually bet turn slightly bigger here and just call river as we readless and we cant really discount 56s, 9Ts either way. He doesn't need to show up with one of these unblocked hands very often to have us pretty rekt when we raise. Expect him to lead most of his Qx and 2p combos ott.

Ask yourself this question: If we raise river, are we comfortable in the face of a 3b? if the answer is no usually best to flat, do we get called by worse often enough to risk half our stack the times he has a straight?

I dunno why we checked the flop either to ever consider folding this river. Seems people forget that sometimes people will bluff a river atleast sometimes a non 0%. We have 30 blinds back in a 17 blind pot with a set when we lose to 8 combos some of which are discounted.

Who consider folding this river? The discussion is about calling or raising, and if we are getting called often anough by worse.

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Sorry dunno why I put that after reading sooted's comment. It's such a clear jam here tho honestly. If we're just flatting this then what hands are turning into bluffs?

This is 5th of 10 hands played so although it may be wrong V seems on the loose side - loose player with big stack calling button min raise can be really wide - I'm not ready to discount too much - maybe J4o
Leading big on the river for sf V is almost always a hand that has improved so either T9 or Qj J8 J7 J4s

16 combos of T9 vs 10 2 pair combos

So unless we have reason to think they're not sf, or they have reason to think we're not sf then I think we're taking ourselves to valuetown if we raise

What about KQo? That has a lot of combos as well. 89 can bluff some of the time as well.

odd way to play KQo though - suddenly getting aggro when the hand may just have been overtaken - and would V call a shove with KQ?

and it doesn't matter about bluff combos because the're never calling a raise

I mean I get that they're never calling but this is such a trivial raise though. We need to have a bluff river range and if we don't jam under repped JJ here then we can't really have a bluff range as profitable.

too few two pairs and sets combo possible as played (especially that sets should have shown some strenght earlier). Just call ! No need to risk your life on the tournament vs what looks like a 9 10. I'd actally be shocked to see anything but 910 or JQ in villain's hand.

I think we can discount 65 for the same reasons we discount 44/77/88/QQ/ OTT: because vill would almost always either (a) lead out to start getting value OTT, or (b) x/raise for value especially after our weak looking bet on the turn.

So vill's value-combos OTR seem to be T9s and QJo/QJs. That's a total of 7 value-combos (and we only beat 3 of them). Of course vill can have a few spazzy bluff combos but I think it's a slippery slope to just throw bluff combos into a strong-looking range when an unknown unexpectedly shows strength like this. Also, no flush draws or realistic OESD missed.

So I lean towards just flatting and not having to face a gross jam from vill. It would be different if vill had more inferior hands that would actually call our shove, but it's basically just QJ (3 total combos from the entire range). Any/all bluffs obviously fold to our river-raise and T9s obviously snaps the jam.

I think that both calling or raising are fine. Just depends on how risk averse you are. If you are ok with busting out at this point then jam and hope you caught him either with 2 pair or on a bluff. If we just call here and lose then we still have over 20BB left to make a run with. I think either play is fine it's just based on how aggressive we prefer to be in this spot when it's still early in the tournament.