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Tricky First Hand - Call or Fold? Tricky First Hand - Call or Fold?

08-20-2019 , 03:22 PM
Playing a $10 online tourney on Ignition, this was the very first hand of the tournament so obviously no reads or notes on anyone. Starting stack 1500, blinds at 10/20. First time posting a hand history without any exporting software, sorry if the formatting is wacky. Posted this on r/poker as well if you recognize the hand.

Hero has KcQh. Folds around to V in LJ, raises to 3BB. Hero in HJ calls. Sb folds, BB calls.

[190] Flop: 3h3dKd. BB checks, V bets 95, Hero calls, BB folds.

[380] Turn: Td. V bets 190, Hero calls.

[760] River: Qs. Villian jams for 1155. Hero tanks for literally all of his possible time and ???.

Results posted in comments. This was one of two really tricky hands in this tourney, the second of which I will post in a few hours. Still relatively new to poker and trying to improve my game so I would love any sort of feedback!
Tricky First Hand - Call or Fold? Quote
08-20-2019 , 03:24 PM
I eventually folded. At the time it felt like a tough laydown but was happy about it atm. Now looking back after 12 hours, I feel like it was definitely the right move. I've been watching a lot of Doug Polk and Jonathan Little and was trying to come up with a list of values hands and bluffs that V could have.

Values hands that I lose to include 16 (arguably overvalued) combos of AA, 1 combo of 33, 6 combos of TT, 1 combo of KK, 4 combos of AdJx, 9 combos of AdXd (excluding AdJd), 2 combos of A3s, and not sure what else. I could see a low-stakes player playing AxKx this way (which I beat) and overvalue TPTK, especially AdKx. Not having any diamonds in my hand makes V having a flush more likely as well.

Bluff hands include Ad+random card that cbet the flop for cbetting's sake, and then picked up equity on the turn and kept barreling. I beat a few flopped combo draws as well, like QdJx or QcJd that could cbet flop and barrel with equity on many turn cards, although with those specific hands most players would just want to showdown their pair of Q. Really not sure what else V could be bluffing with.

Is my line of thinking valid/am I approaching these situations the right way? I know that Little talks about seeing what percentage of V's total holdings I beat and then see if I get the right pot odds for that, but I'm still unclear on how exactly pot odds come into play, if someone could explain that for me.

Also, completely irrelevant to the hand but I went on to win this tourney !
Tricky First Hand - Call or Fold? Quote
08-20-2019 , 06:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaronchen24
I'm still unclear on how exactly pot odds come into play, if someone could explain that for me.

Also, completely irrelevant to the hand but I went on to win this tourney !
Assume villain makes an all-in bet.

PotOdds = Amount you will win (the pot after villain bet) / Amount You Have to Call

Pot Odds determine the equity you need to make the call for +EV. The formula is:

Required Equity = 1/(1+PotOdds).

For your hand, PotOdds = (760+1155)/1155 = 1.66 to 1,

Therefore, the equity you need for +EV is 1/(2.66) = 37.6%

You estimated losing to 29 combos. If villain’s range consisted of N combos, your equity would be 1- 29/N so from a pure math perspective, you would call if your estimated equity exceeded the required equity. Of course, there is always more to it than just math, but the math gives you a starting point.

The fact that you won the tourney may be one example of showing that pot odds are not the only thing.
Tricky First Hand - Call or Fold? Quote
08-21-2019 , 03:18 AM
From statmanhal's comment we can conclude that, if there are at least some 17 bluff combos, we should be calling.

But... there are NOT 16 combos of AA! Only 6 are possible at most! He has about 20 value-combos, so you should start calling at about 12 bluff combos (maybe 13-14 as we are in a tournament and the chips we lose are more valuable than those we win, even though we are in a very early stage, but let's stay on the conservative side)

You are indeed approaching the spot the right way. I wish I were so disciplined to think like that every time (or maybe it's just than the time bank does not give me enough time to count hundreds of combos in HU)
Tricky First Hand - Call or Fold? Quote
08-21-2019 , 03:30 AM
Doesn't see at all close to me - remember that Villains massively underbluff in low stakes - also that people play all sorts of junk when blinds are low - would expect to see all sorts of 3x and random diamonds if we call this down
Tricky First Hand - Call or Fold? Quote
08-21-2019 , 07:15 AM
hard to tell if he is a complete Maniac or a decent Player if it's the first Hand of a Tournament.

but without further Information I would fold to Keep my 60bb stack.
Tricky First Hand - Call or Fold? Quote

      
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